College Football Picks Against the Spread: Conference Championship ATS Predictions

With conference championship weekend here in college football, there are nine games between Friday and Saturday, and my college football picks against the spread focus on all of them, from the Conference USA Championship to the Big Ten Championship.

As part of our college football conference championship predictions, my favorite college football ATS picks include backing North Texas to clinch a College Football Playoff spot and Ohio State to win its first Big Ten Championship since 2020.

College football picks against the spread: Conference championship ATS predictions

See all of our experts' college football picks for every conference championship based on the latest college football odds; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

My best ATS picks for conference championships

Conference USA: Kennesaw State (-2.5) vs. Jacksonville State ⭐⭐⭐

Both of these teams surpassed expectations by reaching the Conference USA Championship under first-year head coaches. And while Jacksonville State won the conference title last year under Rich Rodriguez, this year's team's inability to throw spells trouble.

Charles Kelly's program is No. 86 in EPA per dropback, and Kennesaw State should be able to lock in on stopping running back Cam Cook. Meanwhile, Jerry Mack has the Owls thriving on both sides of the ball, and QB Amari Odom is poised to slash through a Gamecocks defense that's ranked No. 113 by SP+.

Kennesaw State is 6-4-1 ATS against Group of Six opponents, and if the Owls can cover and win their first Conference USA Championship, a $10 bet pays a $9.17 profit at Caesars.

Sun Belt: James Madison (-22.5) vs. Troy ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Soon-to-be UCLA head coach Bob Chesney has James Madison playing so well that there are whispers the Dukes could get into the College Football Playoff over Duke if the Blue Devils win the ACC Championship.

But to do that, JMU will need to win the Sun Belt Championship and earn some style points along the way.

While Troy has overachieved in Gerald Parker's second season at the helm, the Trojans haven't shown up against their toughest Group of Six opponents - they lost 33-0 to Old Dominion and 28-7 to Memphis.

As for James Madison, they're the second-highest ranked G6 team by SP+ (No. 24), with the best defense in the Sun Belt and an elite QB in Alonza Barnett III.

The Dukes' average margin of victory in Sun Belt play is 42.5 to 15.1. If they win in a similar fashion against Troy and take home their first Sun Belt Championship, a $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit at bet365.

American Conference: North Texas (-2.5) vs. Tulane ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

The rare conference championship game that features two head coaches who have already accepted new jobs elsewhere - North Texas' Eric Morris at Oklahoma State and Tulane's Jon Sumrall at Florida.

The winner of this game is also essentially a lock to earn a spot in the CFP, adding to what is already among the best conference championship matchups this week.

However, this will be the Green Wave's first game post-Sumrall taking the Florida job, while the Mean Green appeared to be unfazed when they beat Temple 52-25 on Black Friday after news had already broken that Morris would leave.

Couple that with the fact that North Texas is having a historic season for a G6 program - ranked No. 1 in offensive SP+ and No. 16 overall - and I don't think Tulane stands a chance.

The Mean Green have the best offensive trio in the G6 in Drew Mestemaker, Caleb Hawkins, and Wyatt Young, and should have no issue scoring on a Tulane team that's ranked No. 69 in defensive SP+. North Texas has covered in nine of its last 10, and if it does again, a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit at FanDuel.

Mountain West: UNLV (+4) vs. Boise State ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Don't let the brand-name of Boise State fool you, this is one of the worst Broncos teams in recent memory.

Losing Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty to the NFL has taken a bigger toll on Spencer Danielson's team than expected, and they got lucky to close out the season with two middling Mountain West teams, leading the computers to put them into the championship over New Mexico and San Diego State.

And while Boise State beat UNLV earlier in the season, that was before QB Maddux Madsen's injury. This will be his first game back in a month, and he could have a hard time keeping pace with a Dan Mullen offense that's one of the best in the G6. The Rebels rank No. 14 in offensive SP+ and top 30 in both EPA per rush and pass, thanks to dynamic QB Anthony Colandrea.

UNLV leans heavily on its ground game, which should help mitigate the impact of potentially bad weather in Boise, Idaho, on Friday night. If the Rebels' offense can do enough and keep the Mountain West Championship within a field goal, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit at bet365.

Big 12: Texas Tech (-12.5) vs. BYU ⭐⭐⭐

When these two teams played in the regular season, Texas Tech's defense ate BYU freshman QB Bear Bachmeier alive.

The Red Raiders won with ease at home, 29-7, and now Joey McGuire's program is one win away from likely earning a bye in the College Football Playoff. So while this is a large spread for two 11-1 teams, Texas Tech's front seven is set to be the difference again.

Led by Jacob Rodriguez, David Bailey, and Romello Height, Tech is No. 1 in EPA per rush and No. 2 in EPA per dropback on defense. The Red Raiders have allowed more than 17 points just twice this season, and BYU has been susceptible against quality opponents. The Cougars needed double OT to beat Arizona, won the Holy War by only three, and were up just six on Cincinnati until the final minute of the game.

As long as Texas Tech QB Behren Morton is healthy, the Red Raiders should cruise against a BYU team that's going to struggle to score.

The Red Raiders are 8-1 ATS in Big 12 play, and won each of those eight games by at least 22 points. If Texas Tech pulls it off again and wins its first Big 12 Championship, a $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit at DraftKings.

MAC: Western Michigan (-2.5) vs. Miami (OH) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

For the third straight season, Miami (OH) is playing for the MAC Championship under Chuck Martin. But due to starting QB Dequan Finn leaving the program mid-season, the RedHawks could find themselves struggling to score in freshman Thomas Gotkowski's third career start.

Western Michigan has one of the best defenses in the G6 - ranked No. 46 by SP+ - thanks to pass rusher Nadame Tucker (12 sacks) and safety Tate Hallock, an NFL prospect. Those two can help shut down a Miami (OH) offense that ranks outside the top 75 in EPA per rush and pass.

In what will likely be a low-scoring game at Ford Field in Detroit, Lance Taylor's Broncos should be able to do enough with their rushing attack on offense to control the game.

QB Broc Lowry and running back Jalen Buckley are a dangerous 1-2 punch in the run game, and have helped WMU go 8-3-1 ATS this season. If the Broncos cover, a $10 bet at FanDuel pays a $9.26 profit.

SEC: Georgia (-1.5) vs. Alabama ⭐⭐⭐⭐

In another regular-season rematch, these two programs have gone in very different directions since Alabama took down Georgia, 24-21. Since that win, the Crimson Tide have been susceptible against higher-end defenses and have leaned heavily on QB Ty Simpson to bail them out of bad situations. 

With a non-existent run game, Alabama is going to struggle to score on a Kirby Smart defense that's ranked No. 8 by SP+. Smart's defense has locked in over the back half of the season and has given up more than 21 points just once in its last nine games. Plus, the offense has found an identity behind Gunner Stockton's mobility and the emergence of Nate Frazier as a bell cow.

Kalen DeBoer's team is just 1-2-2 ATS against teams ranked top 30 in defensive SP+ since beating Georgia, while the Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS against SEC opponents since that loss in September. If Georgia covers and wins its fourth SEC Championship under Smart, a $10 bet pays an $8 profit at BetMGM.

Big Ten: Ohio State (-4.5) vs. Indiana ⭐⭐⭐

In the only Power Four conference championship that isn't a rematch from the regular season, No. 1 Ohio State takes on No. 2 Indiana in a matchup that could decide the Heisman Trophy race. And while both Julian Sayin and Fernando Mendoza are expected to be Heisman finalists, this matchup is going to come down to which defense is more dominant.

As impressive as the Hoosiers have been defensively this season, the Buckeyes are putting together a historic year under defensive coordinator Matt Patricia.

Ohio State is No. 1 in defensive SP+, No. 1 in points allowed per game (7.8), and No. 1 in yards allowed (203.0). Mendoza and Co. are going to struggle to score against a unit featuring four projected first-round picks, including All-American Caleb Downs and potential No. 1 pick Arvell Reese.

With Ohio State having the best wide receiver duo in the country in Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, plus the emergence of freshman running back Lamar "Bo" Jackson, the Buckeyes have too much talent to be stopped for four quarters. If Ohio State covers for the ninth time in its last 10 games, a $10 bet at bet365 pays a $9.09 profit.  

ACC: Virginia (-3.5) vs. Duke ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It's almost unbelievable that Duke is in the ACC Championship after going 7-5 in the regular season, which included dropping games against two non-Power Four opponents (Tulane, UConn). But that's just the state of the lowly ACC this year, and no program has taken advantage of the conference's lack of talent like Virginia.

Head coach Tony Elliott came into the year on the hot seat after winning just 11 games in his first three years, and now he's an ACC Championship win away from hitting 11 this season and going to the College Football Playoff.

That's thanks to a strong transfer portal class with additions like QB Chandler Morris, running back J'Mari Taylor, and a plethora of defensive players.

Morris and Taylor should have no problem carving up a Blue Devils defense that's ranked just No. 91 by SP+, and for as good as Duke QB Darian Mensah is, this is one of the best defenses in the ACC (No. 23 by SP+).

Virginia has covered in three of its last four games, including beating Duke 34-17, and another cover will turn a $10 bet into a $9.80 profit at DraftKings.