College Football National Championship Odds: Is Ohio State the Team To Beat After Texas Takedown?

The biggest story heading into Week 1 of the college football season was Arch Manning, and the biggest story coming out of the first Saturday is the way Ohio State's defense shut down the college football national championship odds favorites.

Despite Manning madness hitting an all-time high leading up to the game, and Texas being ranked the preseason No. 1 team, it was the Buckeyes who emerged victorious in a 14-7 win. But are the defending champions actually the team to target with your college football picks for January's national title?

📊 College football national championships odds 2025-26

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🏈 Ohio State national championship odds after Texas win 

🌰 Ohio State national championship odds (+600)

Georgia is the only team to win back-to-back championships during the College Football Playoff era, but will Ryan Day's Buckeyes join the Bulldogs? Week 1 was certainly an indicator that Ohio State won't be taking a step back this season, despite losing so much talent to the NFL and needing to replace both its coordinators.

Ohio State entered the game against Texas with national championship odds as short as +550, but taking down the No. 1 team didn't lead to a whole lot of movement at our college football betting sites. The Buckeyes were favored by as many as 3.5 points against the Longhorns on the opening spread for Week 1, and while the odds did swing in Texas' direction (some books had Ohio State +1.5 by kickoff), that was due to the public's love of Manning.

So it's no surprise to see the Buckeyes' odds sit in a similar range as they did before the win, with the +600 odds implying a 14.29% probability they'll win the title. However, given the way they shut down Manning and completely derailed his Heisman Trophy odds, is Ohio State worth betting on to repeat?

👑 Are the Buckeyes the team to beat, and bet?

Just because a team is ranked top 10 in the preseason poll does not mean they're actually a college football championship contender, just ask Florida State last year. So while taking down No. 1 Texas was no doubt a great sign for Buckeyes bettors, the Manning buzz was way overblown - he'd never even thrown a pass in a road game before. This win could say more about Texas, and Manning in particular, than it does about the Buckeyes' chance of repeating.

And while Matt Patricia's first game as defensive coordinator was a masterclass - with players like Caleb Downs, Sonny Styles, and Arvell Reese putting on a show - the offense did not look ready to push for a championship. Texas has one of the best defenses in the country, but Julian Sayin wasn't overly impressive in his debut as the starting QB, even if he was the first QB in 41 years to beat the No. 1 team in his first start.

Unlike Manning, Sayin wasn't credited with any turnover-worthy plays and played with a "you can't go broke taking a profit" approach to quarterbacking. But also unlike Manning, he didn't have any big-time throws and rarely pushed the ball downfield - when he did, Carnell Tate had to bail him out on an underthrow - and finished with an ADOT of just 6.2.

It doesn't matter if Ohio State has Tate, Jeremiah Smith, and Max Klare if Sayin doesn't get more comfortable taking chances. The second-year QB still has plenty of time to develop, and Day has quite the track record of turning his passers into NFL prospects, yet I'd be wary of betting Ohio State to repeat.

I need to see more from Sayin and this run game before I think about the Buckeyes going back-to-back, especially when a $10 winning bet pays just a $60 profit one game into the season. Oh, and by the way, Ohio State had the lowest postgame win expectancy of any team this week (18%).

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📉 College football national championship odds risers and sliders

🐂 Texas (+550 to +800)

That was about as disappointing a first game as anyone could have dreamt of for Manning. He looked exactly like what he is ... an inexperienced QB who had never even played a top 75 defense before, let alone a top 10 unit like Ohio State's. Expectations around the former five-star made Texas' championship odds, and Manning's Heisman odds, ridiculously short. That's now been corrected, to some degree.

Given how sporadic Manning was - an adjusted completion rate of 62.1% and a turnover-worthy play rate of 5.9% - it might be worth waiting to bet on the Longhorns until we have a better understanding of what this offense will look like. Head coach Steve Sarkisian seemed to have the training wheels on for Arch, who looked better throwing deep balls than he did hitting short crossers.

Defensively, Texas played like a championship contender, but with the offense putting up just one score against a defense that was No. 87 in returning production, I cannot trust Manning to lead this team to a title, unless we see the playmakers around him step up in a big way while he develops.

🐯 LSU (+1300 to +1100)

Watching Ohio State beat Texas and then watching LSU beat Clemson were very different experiences. The Buckeyes' defense was unbelievable against Manning, but that game's offensive play was atrocious in general, and I came away thinking both programs are a year away from their QBs being good enough to compete. That was not the case with LSU and Garrett Nussmeier.

The Nuss Bus drove into the battle for Death Valley and came out as the Heisman leader and the clear 2026 NFL Draft odds favorite. Maybe scoring 17 points isn't that impressive, but the way he did it on the road against a Clemson defense with at least three future first-round picks certainly had most of social media buying in. Plus, the refs robbed him of the best throw on Saturday on what should have been ruled a touchdown to Barion Brown.

While Nussmeier's play was undeniably awe-inspiring, it was actually Blake Baker's defense that made me think LSU should have shorter national championship odds than this - the odds imply a modest 8.33% probability the Tigers will win it all. LSU held a Clemson team with a Heisman contender at QB (Cade Klubnik) and the deepest wide receiver room in the country to 262 yards and 10 points.

Although LSU isn't the team I'm backing to win it all, this appears to be head coach Brian Kelly's breakthrough team with defenders like Harold Perkins Jr., Mansoor Delane, and Whit Weeks ready to lead the Tigers back to national prominence. 

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🐅 Clemson (+1300 to +1500)

Clemson lost to an SEC team in Week 1 last year and still went on to win the ACC Championship and earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. So, I wouldn't worry about the Tigers completely collapsing this season under Dabo Swinney just because they lost by a score at home against a team that very well could be playing late into January.

With that said, Klubnik seemed to suffer from the same issues that hindered him at times last season. Too often against LSU, the same as last year, he'd panic under pressure and make mistakes or rely too heavily on his legs to try and make something happen instead of winning from the pocket - like Nussmeier did against Clemson.

So even with Klubnik still being a worthy Heisman bet, Clemson having a stocked wide receiver room and defense, and the ACC probably being light work for this team, I'd still steer clear of betting on them. It's enticing that a $10 winning bet on the Tigers pays a $150 profit, but since last season, Klubnik is 0-4 against SEC teams.

🐘 Alabama (+900 to +1500)

What happened to the blueprint in Tuscaloosa? What has Kalen DeBoer done to Nick Saban's program? It sure seems like DeBoer is a dead man walking after the Crimson Tide lost 31-17 as a 13.5-point betting favorite to a Florida State team that went 2-10 last season. It's salt in the wound for Crimson Tide faithful that Gus Malzahn was the one cooking up plays for Tommy Castellanos in Tallahassee.

DeBoer is supposed to be known for his offense, and he even has Ryan Grubb back as his offensive coordinator, yet Ty Simpson looked unplayable for much of the game. The Tide's new starting QB had one of the lowest big-time throw rates among Power Four QBs in Week 1 (2.2%), despite having the highest average time to throw among P4 QBs (3.38 seconds).

The defense was just as bad, giving up 236 yards on the ground and being out of position so often against Malzahn's run game that questions have bubbled up about effort. Among the teams with shorter than +3000 odds, this is the last one I'd consider betting on, and I'm not even sure why the Tide's odds remain this short.

🏆 My best college football national championship odds bet

🦁 Penn State (+650)

Coming into the season, Penn State was my college football national championship pick, and the Nittany Lions remain the team to beat in my eyes. They have the best shot of keeping the Big Ten's championship streak alive, and they showed no reason to doubt them in their 46-11 win over Nevada in Week 1.

Obviously, Nevada is not a program that you should brag about beating, but handling business against the teams you're supposed to destroy is never a bad sign. Drew Allar was efficient, the new receivers looked sharp (Kyron Hudson and Trebor Pena combined for 13 receptions), and Dani Dennis-Sutton was unblockable.

The Nittany Lions came into the season ranked No. 4 in SP+, and one of just three teams to be top eight in both offense and defense, thanks to a combination of returning talent (No. 25 in returning production) and key transfer portal additions. Nothing has changed early on, but Penn State faces its first real test on Sept. 27 when it hosts Oregon.

❓ College football national championship FAQs

Who is the favorite to win the college football national championship?

Ohio State is the favorite to win the college football national championship for the 2025-26 season. The Buckeyes' odds (+600) imply a 14.29% probability that they'll repeat as champions, according to our odds calculator.

Who won the college football national championship last year?

Ohio State won last year's CFP National Championship, defeating Notre Dame 34-23 in Atlanta.

When will the college football national championship be decided?

The 2026 college football national championship will be decided on Monday, Jan. 19.

Where will the college football national championship take place?

The 2026 college football national championship will be played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.

When does the College Football Playoff start?

The 2025-2026 College Football Playoff begins Friday, Dec. 19, with the first of four first-round games; the other three will be played Saturday, Dec. 20. The quarterfinal games will then be played on Wednesday, Dec. 31, and Thursday, Jan. 1.

The semifinal games will be Thursday, Jan. 8, and Friday, Jan. 9, with the championship game slated for Monday, Jan. 19, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.

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