College Football National Championship Odds: Chaos and Upsets Shake the Race After Week 6

The college football season is starting to feel a lot like 2007, with the constant shuffle of the college football national championship odds following multiple major upsets over the first six weeks of the campaign.

Entering Week 6, both Penn State and Texas were ranked among the top 10 in the country while carrying championship odds no longer than +800. Both programs lost to unranked teams and now look like longer shots to win the national title.

However, Ohio State and Oregon remain atop the college football national championship odds after Week 6, while Alabama and Miami continue to look like the only other programs worth backing with your college football picks.

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🚨 National championship odds movement after Week 6

• Following a 42-3 win over Minnesota, Ohio State (+525 to +450) remains the college football national championship odds favorite
• Though Oregon (+600 to +550) still sits No. 2 on the board, despite being on a bye in Week 6, the biggest riser this week is Miami (+1400 to +900) after it took down Florida State on the road
• Even with Alabama beating Vanderbilt in convincing fashion, and Ty Simpson being among the Heisman Trophy odds favorites, the Crimson Tide only saw their odds shorten from +850 to +800
• Behind another poor performance from Arch Manning, Texas fell from being the third-biggest favorite (+800) to the sixth favorite (+1800)
• Penn State (+800 to +3500) slid down even further than Texas after UCLA, with interim head coach Tim Skipper and interim play-caller Jerry Neuheisel led the way, upset the Nittany Lions 42-37
• Georgia (remained at +1000), Ole Miss (+2000 to +1800), Oklahoma (+2000 to +1800), Texas A&M (+2500 to +2000), Notre Dame (+3000 to +2500), and LSU (+2500 to +2800) were among the marquee programs that saw minimal movement

🌪️ Ohio State and Oregon keep Big Ten on top amid Week 6 chaos

🌰 Ohio State (+425)

• SP+ ranking: No. 2 (No. 9 offense, No. 1 defense)
• Biggest games: at Illinois (Oct. 11), vs. Penn State (Nov. 1), at Michigan (Nov. 29)
• When to bet: Now, or never ... or maybe, much, much later

Last season, Ohio State opened as the college football national championship odds favorite at +325. However, thanks to a loss to Oregon and then another to Michigan, those odds didn't last long, with the Buckeyes sitting between +500 and +800 for much of the season; you could even get them at +1200 at one point. This season is not last season, so bet the Buckeyes now if you're going to back them.

Ryan Day's team is clearly one of the five best in the sport, especially with how chaotic this season has been for teams we expected to be contenders (Texas, Penn State, and Clemson). Ohio State also avoids Oregon and Indiana in the regular season, and now the game against the Nittany Lions in November doesn't seem so scary.

With Julian Sayin improving every week, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate being uncoverable, and a defense loaded with All-American talents like Arvell Reese and Caleb Downs, Ohio State might be 11-0 by the time they play that team up north. If that's the case, Ohio State might be closer to +150 by late November. 

So bet the Buckeyes now with a $10 bet paying a $42.50 profit at Caesars. Otherwise hope Day chokes against Michigan again to lengthen these odds.

🦆 Oregon (+550)

• SP+ ranking: No. 1 (No. 2 offense, No. 3 defense)
• Biggest games: vs. Indiana (Oct. 11), vs. USC (Nov. 22), at Washington (Nov. 29)
• When to bet: After the Indiana game

A lot of the Oregon hype is built around the Ducks taking down Penn State in Happy Valley during double overtime. But with the way the Nittany Lions looked in a loss to a previously 0-4 UCLA team, we can't be sure the Ducks are really better than last year's squad that earned the No. 1 seed in the CFP before losing 41-21 to Ohio State.

While I'm buying in on Dante Moore, and the advanced numbers say this is the top team in the country, I think the best approach is to play this safe and wait until we see Oregon against Indiana. The Hoosiers are ranked in the top five by SP+, too, and they boast a potential first-round pick at QB in Fernando Mendoza. The Indiana offense will be the first real test for Oregon's defense.

On one hand, we risk this price shortening closer to Ohio State's betting odds (probably down to +450 if they beat Indiana), but then we know that this team is for sure getting into the CFP and capable of competing with the best. And on the other hand, if the Ducks lose, we can get them at a price probably closer to +800.

So, while a $10 winning bet paying a $55 profit is enticing with how good the Ducks have looked, I prefer to wait one more week and get one more data point before buying in on them.

👑 Historic powers back in the mix

🐘 Alabama (+800)

• SP+ ranking: No. 7 (No. 14 offense, No. 9 defense)
• Biggest games: at Missouri (Oct. 11), vs. Tennessee (Oct. 18), vs. LSU (Nov. 8), vs. Oklahoma (Nov. 15), at Auburn (Nov. 29)
• When to bet: After they lose

Don't get me wrong, I'm all in on Alabama being the best team in the SEC and Ty Simpson being the best non-Dante Moore bet to win the Heisman. But unlike Ohio State and Oregon, there's almost no way the Crimson Tide don't drop another game in the regular season with how stacked their SEC schedule is this year.

Kalen DeBoer's program plays four teams ranked in the top 14 in its next five games, and the only non-ranked school it faces during that stretch is a South Carolina team on the road that has the potential No. 1 pick at QB. Realistically, Alabama will lose one of those five games, and that's just fine.

After that loss will be the best time to bet on Alabama because that's when these odds will likely lengthen to around +1000 again. With that said, the Crimson Tide are good enough to bet at this +800 price, to win an $80 profit on a $10 bet. 

Alabama is the only team other than Ohio State and Oregon that I have confidence in backing because Simpson is that good, and he's playing with a plethora of future NFL players on offense like Kadyn Proctor, Jam Miller, Germie Bernard, and Ryan Williams. Plus, the team's defense has really figured it out under Kane Wommack.

🌴 Miami (+900)

• SP+ ranking: No. 12 (No. 6 offense, No. 23 defense)
• Biggest games: vs. Louisville (Oct. 17), at SMU (Nov. 1),
• When to bet: Never

The U will never be back in the way the Miami faithful want it to be, but the Hurricanes could pull off an undefeated regular season under Mario Cristobal. They have the fifth-best chance to go 12-0, per SP+. And while I think Cristobal's team will win the ACC and probably earn a bye in the CFP, I'm steering clear of them when it comes to betting on a national champ.

For the same reason, I won't even pretend to consider betting on Carson Beck to win the Heisman. I'm not buying the Hurricanes as true title contenders. There are three reasons for this, the first of which is that the advanced stats don't view Miami as one of the best teams in the country, despite them technically beating three ranked teams (Notre Dame, South Florida, Florida State) and a Florida team that beat Texas. That's a red flag.

Another red flag is they haven't looked dominant in any of their three Power Four wins. They even let the Seminoles within six points of them after being up 28-3 in the fourth quarter. And the thing that concerns me most is that they won't really be battle-tested with the ACC so weak.

Miami looks more like a team that should be priced in the +1500 range, not one that pays just a $90 profit on a $10 winning bet at BetRivers. So while the trench play in Coral Gables, with Rueben Bain Jr. and Francis Mauigoa leading the way, is among the best in the country, I just don't think an ACC team is winning the title. I'm not even sure they'd beat a team like Texas Tech in the CFP.

🔭 Nontraditional contenders worth watching

🏴‍☠️ Texas Tech (+3500)

• SP+ ranking: No. 4 (No. 4 offense, No. 11 defense)
• Biggest games: vs. Kansas (Oct. 11), at Arizona State (Oct. 18), at Kansas State (Nov. 1), vs. BYU (Nov. 8)
• When to bet: Now ... like right now

Our best college football betting sites are undervaluing Texas Tech because it's not a brand-name program that's been historically successful. But it's being bank rolled like one with billionaire Cody Campbell, who played at Tech under Mike Leach, helping load this team up in the transfer portal.

With the amount of talent the Red Raiders possess, and how well they've played as a team under head coach Joey McGuire, Texas Tech shouldn't have odds longer than +2500, and it won't for long. So bet the Red Raiders now, with a $10 bet paying a $350 profit at DraftKings, because there isn't a better long shot on the board. 

This roster reportedly cost more than Ohio State's championship-winning team last year, and it's the only program in the country with a better than 36% chance of going 12-0, according to SP+. Without a clear threat to them in the Big 12, which is a far deeper conference talent-wise than the ACC, the Red Raiders will slowly shorten these odds with each win.

Still not sold? Well, you need to buy into Texas Tech because of their depth at the skill positions on offense and their talent in the front seven. QB Behren Morton has an embarrassment of riches when it comes to playmakers, and this front seven boasts a half dozen players on the NFL radar, including potential first-round pick David Bailey.

🔴 Indiana (+3500)

• SP+ ranking: No. 3 (No. 7 offense, No. 6 defense)
• Biggest games: at Oregon (Oct. 11), at Penn State (Nov. 8)
• When to bet: After the Oregon game

Could Curt Cignetti actually have a better team this year than the one he took to the College Football Playoff last year? It certainly seems that way with Mendoza being one of the best QBs in the country, Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. both being future NFL wide receivers, and a defense with plenty of All-Big Ten caliber players like D'Angelo Ponds and Mikail Kamara.

The main concern here, like with last year's team, is that it's hard to gauge how good the Hoosiers are because they haven't played a tough opponent yet. Yes, they beat an Illinois team 63-10 that bested USC, but the Hoosiers followed it up by struggling against Iowa. I think this is one of the 10 best teams in the country, but I'm not sure the Hoosiers can really compete with the leading teams in the Big Ten.

Luckily, we don't have to wait long to see how serious this Indiana team is because it plays Oregon this week. Obviously, if they beat the Ducks in Eugene, these odds will probably drop to +1000 by Saturday night. That's a risk I'm willing to take, though, because right now I'm not taking Indiana over Oregon or Ohio State out of the Big Ten, and I much prefer backing Texas Tech as a long shot.

Now, if you do like the Hoosiers going on a historic run, waiting until the Oregon game has upside if they lose. Last year, Ohio State lost to Oregon and had its odds basically double. So if the Hoosiers lose, these odds probably lengthen to at least +4000.

❓ College football national championship FAQs

Who is the college football national championship odds favorite?

Ohio State (+450) is the college football national championship odds favorite. The Buckeyes' odds imply an 18.18% probability that they'll win the title for the second straight season.

When will the college football national championship be decided?

The 2026 college football national championship will be decided on Monday, Jan. 19.

When does the College Football Playoff start?

The 2025-2026 College Football Playoff begins Friday, Dec. 19, with the first of four first-round games; the other three will be played Saturday, Dec. 20. The quarterfinal games will then be played on Wednesday, Dec. 31, and Thursday, Jan. 1.

The semifinal games will be Thursday, Jan. 8, and Friday, Jan. 9, with the championship game slated for Monday, Jan. 19, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.