College Football Best Bets Week 9: Back Missouri to Keep Heisman Hopeful Pavia in Check

Our college football best bets have gone 4-1 for two consecutive weeks, and that has me looking to duplicate that 80% success rate with our college football predictions for Week 9. 

My first three college football picks all back home underdogs with spreads of more than a touchdown to cover against conference foes. I also add my two favorite player props, one of which fades an up-and-coming Heisman Trophy contender.

🏈 College football best bets & expert picks: Week 9

College football best bets odds subject to change.

• North Carolina +10.5 vs. Virginia (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Mississippi State +7.5 vs. Texas (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Kentucky +9 vs. Tennessee (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt: Under 58.5 rushing yards (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Makhi Frazier, RB, Michigan State: Under 34.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

🔮 Best college football predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

🐏  North Carolina +10.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Given that I have already backed North Carolina as my biggest college football upset pick for Week 9, it makes perfect sense to double down on the Tar Heels getting more than 10 points on the point spread as a five-star play.

North Carolina should steady itself for the remainder of the regular season with Gio Lopez back under center. The signal caller played in his first game action last week since Sept. 20, and promptly led the Tar Heels to a season-best 287 yards against Power Four competition.

Virginia has three wins in games in which it finished with a post-game win expectancy of 45% or worse (the Louisville win was the lowest at 10%). But North Carolina’s best chance at a cover or outright victory is to use its top 20 defense in Line Yards and top 50 pass rush to disrupt Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris, who has been under duress all season.

Most of our best sports betting sites offer the same -110 price at 52.38% implied odds to back the underdog at +10.5. I am making my $10 wager at BetMGM in the hopes of netting $9.09 in profits on a Tar Heels cover.

🐶  Mississippi State +7.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

This five-star best college football prediction is made in equal parts because of the value it presents, but also plays on the curiosity of why the line has been set so low.

Mississippi State has lost 15 consecutive SEC games, which is the longest active streak by a team in any FBS conference. Meanwhile, Texas has gotten its season on track with five wins in six games after its season-opening loss to Ohio State.

Texas only scored 13 points in regulation at Kentucky last week, which wouldn’t even have been enough to cover the 13.5-point spread if it had pitched a shutout. It will be fatigued after managing just eight first downs and losing the time of possession battle by nearly 19 minutes, while its offensive line issues (seven tackles for loss and three sacks allowed) again reared their ugly head.

Most of the best sports betting apps are offering the Bulldogs at +6.5 or +7, but I am grabbing the hook after using a FanDuel promo code at a manageable price of -115 and 53.49% implied odds. Backing the +7.5 on an alternate spread at competing top sports betting sites will cost a price of at least -127 odds. 

Thus, the best return is through FanDuel’s -115 odds, which would pay out $8.70 in profits if Mississippi State covers.

😾  Kentucky +9 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Kentucky looks to shrug off a missed opportunity from last week, as it fell 16-13 to Texas in overtime. But that inspired performance in Lexington, Ky., makes it hard to ignore how different the Wildcats have been at home compared to on the road under head coach Mark Stoops.

In home games under Stoops, Kentucky is 55-35 with a +6.8 points per game differential and +15 turnover differential. In neutral site or road games, the Wildcats are 24-42 with -7.7 points per game and -28 turnover differentials. 

Now Kentucky has a big scheduling advantage playing a second straight home game against a Tennessee squad in its third road tilt over its last four games.

There is a big difference between the +9 at bet365 and the +7.5 at FanDuel on the low end of the market. I'm backing the underdogs at the higher number at -110 odds (carrying a 52.38% implied probability). My $10 wager would return $9.09 in profits if Kentucky covers.

💰 Best college football player prop bets for Week 9

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬇️  Diego Pavia Under 58.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia has led his team to its first 6-1 start since 1950. But I'm buying low on the dual-threat signal caller after he totaled a career-high 79 scramble yards against LSU last week, the most by a Commodores quarterback in the last 15 years.

LSU blitzed Pavia on 13 of his 31 dropbacks, which resulted in zero turnovers and zero sacks. Thus, Missouri will likely rely on its front four to get pressure, and the Tigers’ 14% sack percentage in SEC play is the second-highest in the conference.

Vanderbilt rushes for the third-most yards per game in the SEC (213), but Missouri excels at limiting explosive runs against the Commodores’ unique run blocking concepts. 

Pavia has at least 58 yards rushing in four consecutive games, but I am backing Missouri to end that streak with a confident four-star play.

Pavia’s O/U for rushing yards is at 57.5 on the low end of the market. That makes Caesars the go-to shop for the best number and price. Through its -115 odds carrying a 53.49% implied probability, the Under cashing would result in an $8.70 net profit on a winning $10 wager.

⬇️  Makhi Frazier Under 34.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐

Michigan State running back Makhi Frazier has 94 carries this season, and the next-closest running back (Brandon Tullis) only has 35. But the Spartans have been doling out their carries differently of late, as evidenced by five different players recording at least two rushing attempts against Indiana last week, with none rushing more than seven times.

Those game-high seven attempts went to Frazier, who only mustered one total yard with those opportunities. It was also interesting to see how early Michigan State gave up on the run despite leading in the second quarter, as it finished with 38 pass attempts to 24 rushes.

Now the Spartans face a similarly tough test against Michigan, which ranks in the top 10 in defensive rush EPA. Frazier has also not broken a run longer than 15 yards this year, and he will likely need at least one big gainer to go Over this projected total if his workload is again diminished.

If Frazier runs for 34 or fewer yards for the third time in eight games this season, my $10 winning wager would net $8.77 in profits.