College Football Best Bets Week 7: Will Alabama Snap Hardy's Streak?

It may have been a curse to have been highly ranked in the preseason this year, as three of the top four teams (Texas, Penn State, and Clemson) have seven combined losses and are all out of the AP poll. My college football best bets are following that trend and fading more highly ranked teams in marquee matchups as part of my college football predictions for Week 7. 

Among my college football picks are two road underdogs to cover in hostile environments, while expecting the nation’s leading rusher to be held in check in a ranked-vs-ranked SEC matchup.

🏈 College football best bets & expert picks: Week 7

College football best bets odds subject to change.

• Indiana +7.5 vs. Oregon (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Oklahoma-Texas Under 43.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• South Carolina +9.5 vs. LSU (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Mason Heintschel, QB, Pittsburgh: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri: Under 99.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🔮 Best college football predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

🔴  Indiana +7.5 vs. Oregon (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Oregon puts the nation’s longest active home winning streak (18 games) on the line against a College Football Playoff representative that is much improved from a year ago.

This is a strength vs. strength matchup as Indiana has FBS’ best defense in terms of Havoc created, while Oregon is the top-ranked offense in Havoc allowed. 

All of a sudden Oregon’s road win in a “white out” Penn State environment doesn’t look as good after the Nittany Lions’ embarrassing loss to UCLA. 

Indiana should also not be overlooked, as quarterback Fernando Mendoza was responsible for the most touchdowns of any FBS quarterback without committing a turnover through the first four weeks. And this is also a Hoosiers team that scored the most points (63) by a Big Ten team against an AP Top 10 opponent in conference history.

Several of the best sports betting sites are in unison with these 53.49% implied odds at -115 juice to back the Hoosiers at a touchdown with the hook. If Indiana covers, my $10 winning wager at BetMGM would net $8.70 in profits.

⬇️  Oklahoma-Texas Under 43.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

There were reports that Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer was attempting to return quicker than the original timeline from hand surgery to play in this Red River Rivalry game. But even if he does suit up, I expect the defenses to dominate in what should be a low-scoring affair.

Oklahoma’s defense has allowed just 7.2 points per game, the fewest in the SEC. Its defensive front should be licking its chops to attack a Texas offensive line that allowed 24 pressures on 43 dropbacks, with six sacks and 10 quarterback hits against Florida last week.

FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering a total as high as 43.5 while still charging the standard -110 juice to back the Under. That is where I am headed, backing the best number at 52.38% implied odds, as a $10 winning wager if the Under cashes would return $9.09 in profits.

🐓  South Carolina +9.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Sharp action is clearly on the road underdogs in this game, as this line has moved through the key number of 10 from -10.5 to -9.5 despite South Carolina receiving just 45% of the wagers to this point. I am following that line movement, even though a night game in Death Valley is one of college football’s most intimidating environments.

South Carolina’s offense ranks 117th in Havoc allowed, and quarterback LaNorris Sellers has been pressured on an absurd 43% of dropbacks this season. But while LSU’s defense ranks 28th in Havoc created, there are few quarterbacks I trust more under pressure than Sellers, who has overcome that to rank 15th in big time throw rate.

BetMGM is still offering a line as high as +9.5, as several other competing shops are as low as +8.5. That makes paying up slightly for its 53.49% implied odds worth it, as a $10 wager would still net $8.70 in profits if South Carolina covers the spread.

💰 Best college football player prop bets for Week 7

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️  Mason Heintschel Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-102) ⭐⭐⭐

Pittsburgh quarterback Mason Heintschel became the first ACC true freshman with at least 300 passing yards and four passing touchdowns in their first career start since Deshaun Watson in 2014. 

While it is a much more difficult task to replicate that effort in a road game at Florida State than a home game against Boston College, there are reasons to believe Heintschel will again be successful against the Seminoles' defense.

Heintschel showed tremendous poise for a true freshman in his first game action, finishing without a turnover-worthy play while facing pressure on 14 dropbacks last week. Meanwhile, in Florida State’s consecutive losses to ACC opponents, the Seminoles have allowed eight explosive pass plays and six passing touchdowns. 

FanDuel’s -102 odds to back the Over carry a 50.50% implied probability, and would net $9.80 on a $10 wager if Heintschel throws multiple touchdown passes.

⬇️  Ahmad Hardy Under 99.5 receiving yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Something has to give in this Alabama-Missouri matchup, as the Tigers are amid their longest home winning streak (15 games) over the last 80 years, while Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer is 13-2 in ranked matchups as a head coach.

Ahmad Hardy has an FBS-leading 730 rushing yards and nine touchdowns this season, and is sure to be the focal point of the Alabama defense. He puts his streak of seven straight games (the longest active streak in FBS) of 100-plus rushing yards on the line, but I expect Alabama to snap that streak.

The Crimson Tide defense is much more vulnerable to explosive plays through the air than on the ground. And they made up for a 62nd-ranked tackling grade entering last week to limit dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia to his second-lowest rushing output of the season. 

Alabama has only allowed nine opponent trips to the red zone through five games, and that lowers the ceiling considerably for Hardy’s ability to rack up yardage on lengthy drives.

Under backers will find great value in making this wager through FanDuel’s -114 price and 53.27% implied odds, as BetMGM has Hardy’s O/U set much lower at 91.5. A $10 winning wager at FanDuel would net $8.77 in profits.

❓ College football betting FAQs

What are the best bets for college football Week 7?

My best bets for college football Week 7 are Indiana to cover against Oregon, the Under in the Oklahoma-Texas game, South Carolina to cover as road underdogs against LSU, the Over on Mason Heintschel’s passing touchdowns, and the Under on Ahmad Hardy’s rushing yards.

How do college football odds work?

When betting on college football odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.

Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

Are college player props legal?

College player props are a legal and regulated betting market in most states with sports betting. See our guide to college player prop betting by state to see what's available in your region.

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.