College Football Best Bets This Week: ATS Predictions & Player Props

My college football best bets this week include plays from five of the nine championship games to be played Friday and Saturday, as the final College Football Playoff bracket takes shape.

Included in my college football conference championship predictions are a favorite that needs a big statement for inclusion in the playoffs, a fade of the unanimous No. 1 team in the country, and a pair of plus-money player props on a Big 12 quarterback and an SEC wide receiver.

College football best bets for conference championships

See all of our experts' college football picks every conference championship based on the latest college football odds.

Best college football predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

James Madison -22.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

James Madison was No. 25 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, which offers a glimmer of hope that it could be recognized as the top Group of 5 team or earn a playoff spot if chaos ensues in the ACC, with Duke beating Virginia.

Either way, the Dukes need a statement victory over Troy on their home field for one last chance to impress the committee, much like they have done in winning 10 consecutive games (five by 25-plus points, 24.1 points per game margin of victory). 

James Madison became just the third team to go undefeated in the Sun Belt in the league’s championship game era. The only other teams in the country to go undefeated in conference play are No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana. 

The Dukes are outgaining opponents 469.6 to 263 during their 10-game winning streak. And James Madison knows how to step on an opponent’s throat after halftime. Outside of Marshall, who ran for 141 yards in the second half against James Madison, the Dukes have held their other seven Sun Belt opponents to 19 combined rushing yards after halftime.

This spread is up from an opening number of -20.5, but remains a play as long as it stays under the key number of -24. FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering a spread lower than -23, which makes its -115 price at 53.49% implied odds worth paying up for. If the Dukes cover, my $10 winning wager would net $8.70 in profit.

North Texas-Tulane Over 66 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

This is a strength vs. strength matchup, as Tulane has won four straight games while holding five American opponents to fewer than 20 points with a pass rush that ranks in the top 26, per PFF. However, North Texas is arguably the most balanced offense in the country, and I expect that balance to win out in what should be a high-scoring affair.

North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker leads all FBS quarterbacks with 3,835 passing yards. Perhaps defenses are worried about him going crazy with his arm, as the Mean Green also rank in the top seven nationally in Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate. That is a big reason freshman running back Caleb Hawkins has run for an eye-popping 16 rushing touchdowns over the last four games.

These two teams did not meet in the regular season, and the element of surprise bodes well for the Over. 

The Over has also cashed in all five of North Texas’ road games and seven of eight conference games. That makes this a confident three-star play at bet365, the only one of our best sports betting apps with a total lower than the 66.5s found across the rest of the market. Through its -110 odds, a $10 winning wager would return $9.09 in profits.

Indiana +4.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

With Ohio State coming off a national championship and knowing it is likely still guaranteed a first-round bye in the playoffs even with a loss in this game, it is fair to wonder if the motivation factor for an Indiana school devoid of football success for most of its history wins out.

This is no disrespect to the Buckeyes defense that became the first to hold their first 12 opponents under 17 points since Florida in 1975. Ohio State has also won and covered its last nine games against ranked opponents. 

But this wager is all about respect for an Indiana program that arguably has the best win between the two teams (at Oregon) and ranks first in points per game, second in scoring defense, and third in total defense.

Ohio State has received 57% of the early point spread wagers, yet the line has ticked down from an opening number of -6. Thus, I am comfortable aligning with the sharps and am laying my $10 wager down at BetMGM for the best number and price. Its -105 odds pay out better on a $10 wager than the -113 juice on the high end of the market ($9.52 in potential profits versus $8.85).

Best college football player props this week

Search the best college football player prop odds for any team or player across every market from legal sportsbooks in your area.

Behren Morton player prop: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+108) ⭐⭐⭐

The Big 12 Championship between BYU and Texas Tech is one of the rare conference championship rematches from the regular season, and that should help the Cougars stay closer than their earlier 29-7 loss to the Red Raiders.

Not much was asked of Behren Morton in that game, as the team ran 43 times compared to 32 attempted passes. Nonetheless, Morton finished with his second-lowest QBR of the season, and it was also one of the five final regular-season games where he was held to one or zero touchdown passes.

BYU ranks 14th in the country in points per game allowed (17.8). It is also one of 10 schools with 16 or more interceptions, and its 28 sacks are the most for the school since 2016. Thus, I would not be surprised if the Red Raiders once again employ a more run-heavy attack in this rematch.

Caesars is the only one of the sites with the best sportsbook promos offering better than +106, and its +108 odds would return $10.80 in profit if Morton finishes with one or fewer passing touchdowns.

Germie Bernard player prop: Anytime touchdown scorer (+115) ⭐⭐⭐

It is rare for a college football game to have all of its anytime touchdown scorer odds listed at plus-money, but that is the case for the SEC Championship between Georgia and Alabama at FanDuel.

Crimson Tide wide receiver Germie Bernard enters this game amid a three-game touchdown drought, but still has the shortest anytime touchdown odds of any player in the game. 

That piques my interest, as oddsmakers figure he is likely to duplicate the 5-35-1 stat line he produced in the regular season against Georgia. That game was the third in a four-game stretch where Bernard scored at least once, and he found the endzone in five of the 11 games total.

Bernard has also been adding rushing attempts to his arsenal, with three or more attempts in two of the last five games. That versatility makes his anytime touchdown odds more appealing and is worth a $10 wager at FanDuel’s market-best +115 odds, in the hopes of netting $11.50 in profits.