College Football Best Bets for Week 14: Our Expert Picks, ATS Predictions & Player Props

My college football best bets for Week 14 break down the action from several of Thanksgiving weekend’s biggest games, as teams jockey for bowl eligibility, spots in conference championships, and overall College Football Playoff resume builders.

Included in my college football Week 14 predictions are a Friday night ATS play fading a ranked team and backing an underdog needing a win for bowl eligibility. Elsewhere, I add three other plays on some of the best rivalries in the sport, including a play on the total in the Iron Bowl and my best player prop for Ohio State vs. Michigan.

All of these plays look to build off of last week’s profitable +0.65 units in wagers.

🏈 College football best bets & expert picks: Week 14

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 14 based on the latest college football odds.

🔮 Best college football predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

🌵 Arizona -1.5 (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Arizona State has won eight straight November games outright and covered seven of them. It also trounced Arizona 49-7 in its home stadium last season and covered four of the last five meetings between these teams. So, as a guy who loves to make contrarian plays, color me intrigued that the Wildcats are as high as a 2.5-point road favorite against a top 25 team.

Arizona has won four straight games, perhaps none more impressive than its latest 41-17 victory over Baylor. The Wildcats' red-hot defense should travel well in this in-state rivalry after entering last week ranked 16th in Quality Drives allowed and in the top 40 in points per possession allowed. It also helps that Arizona has a versatile backfield with its three leading rushers averaging a combined 6.2 yards per carry.

FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites that hasn't aligned at a spread of -2 or -2.5. That extra half to full-point’s worth of value is worth paying up for the -114 odds at a 53.27% implied probability, as a winning $10 wager would still net $8.77 in profits.

🪓 Florida State ML (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Florida State is one of six FBS teams (and the only one from a Power Four conference) playing this weekend that need a win for bowl eligibility while facing a team eliminated from bowl contention. It does not get much more motivating for the Seminoles to beat their in-state rival Gators than that.

Florida is coming off arguably its worst game of the season, falling behind 31-0 at halftime in The Swamp against Tennessee, only to add 11 points after halftime when the Volunteers took their foot off the gas. Meanwhile, Florida State had an extra day to prepare after playing last Friday and is 3-0 ATS when owning a rest advantage this year.

I am backing the Seminoles to win outright while they are still underdogs at Caesars, as several other best sports betting apps have this game as a virtual pick’em with standard -110 juice (52.38% implied odds) on either moneyline. Should Florida State snap a streak of 11 games between these teams where the favorite has won outright, my $10 winning wager would return $9.26 in profits.

⬇️ Alabama-Auburn Under 46.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

This Iron Bowl total has plummeted from an opening number of 51.5, despite 57% of the early wagers being placed on the Over. I am backing the sharps and this reverse line movement before the total lowers any further.

The Under has cashed in three of the last five meetings between these teams and is 5-0 in the Crimson Tide’s last five games in the state of Alabama. 

Auburn has managed 17 or fewer points in three of its last five SEC games. Meanwhile, Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson has thrown two touchdowns and three interceptions over the last three games, as the team has run for 3.1, 2.4, and 2.2 yards per carry in its last three conference contests.

DraftKings is the only major sportsbook offering better than -107 to back the Under. Its -105 odds carry a 51.22% implied probability and would net $9.52 in profits on a winning $10 wager.

💰 Best college football player props for Week 14

⬆️ Bo Jackson player prop: Over 78.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If Ohio State wants to extend its winning streak to 16 games and snap a four-game losing streak to Michigan, it should start by attacking the Wolverines’ vulnerable rush defense.

Michigan’s defense entered last week ranked 131st in EPA/rush allowed, while allowing available yards at the 100th-worst rate. 

Meanwhile, Bo Jackson is coming off earning Big Ten Freshman of the Week honors after his first multi-touchdown game and second straight game with 100 or more yards on the ground. He now has three 100-yard games in the last four and rushed for at least 80 yards in every game in that span. 

Jackson’s five 100-yard games are the most in a season for an Ohio State freshman running back since JK Dobbins in 2017. While I would not put anyone off backing his alternate rushing yard total of 100-plus yards at +174 odds at FanDuel, I am making the safer play on his standard O/U line. 

If Jackson runs for 79 or more yards, I would net $8.77 in profits on my winning $10 wager.

🔥 Eli Stowers player prop: Anytime touchdown scorer (+120) ⭐⭐⭐

To say that Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia has been on fire of late is an understatement. Pavia has set career highs in total offense in back-to-back wins, starting with 489 yards of offense in Week 11 against Auburn and besting that with 532 total yards last week in a 28-point victory over Kentucky.

With his 377 passing yards and 112 rushing yards against Auburn, Pavia became the first Vanderbilt player to eclipse 300 passing and 100 rushing yards in a game in school history.

The O/U for this week’s in-state battle against Tennessee is 65.5, and the Over on Pavia’s 1.5 passing touchdowns has 62.41% implied odds (-166). 

Thus, this is a great price to back Vanderbilt’s leading pass-catcher’s anytime touchdown odds. Stowers has a multi-touchdown game and a 12-reception game in the last three weeks. He also leads all tight ends with 705 receiving yards and the most yards in a single game this season (146). 

If Stowers catches his fifth touchdown, my $10 winning wager would net $12 in profits through FanDuel’s +120 odds, which trumps the value on the -125 odds at the opposite end of the market.