College Football Best Bets for Week 10: Expert Picks, ATS Predictions & Player Props

It's been three straight profitable weeks (4-1, 4-1, 3-2) for my college football best bets, and I aim to keep that momentum going with another five-pack.

Included in my college football Week 10 predictions are two underdogs at a key number with the hook, and our two best player props involve running backs in road games.

🏈 College football best bets & expert picks: Week 10

See all of our experts' college football picks this week based on the latest college football odds for Week 10.

• Vanderbilt-Texas Under 45.5 (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Oklahoma +3.5 (-124 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Cincinnati +10.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Jadan Baugh Over 62.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Jadarian Price to score a first-half touchdown (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

🔮 Best college football predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

⬇️ Vanderbilt-Texas Under 45.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Arch Manning has been in concussion protocol all week, which means the Longhorns' quarterbacking duties could be left to fifth-year senior Matthew Caldwell. Caldwell did throw a touchdown pass late in last week’s win against Kentucky, but he has nearly double the number of turnover-worthy plays to big-time throws in his career.

Meanwhile, the Longhorns' defense ranks in the top 10 in pass rush, passing downs EPA allowed, and tackling grade (per PFF). While Vanderbilt’s offense does rank in the top 10 in Quality Drives and Finishing Drives, it will find it much tougher sledding to move the ball solely on the ground if Texas limits its passing attack.

Several best sports betting sites have a total a half-point lower at 45. I am taking advantage of the best number and price at DraftKings, where a $10 winning wager through its -115 odds (carrying a 53.49% implied probability) would net $8.70 in profits.

🅾️ Oklahoma +3.5 (-124) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I am not falling into the trap of overreactions from last week, when Oklahoma lost at home to Ole Miss while Tennessee scored an impressive 22-point road win at Kentucky.

The Sooners’ normally stout defense let Ole Miss convert on 9-of-21 third-down opportunities but should see positive regression from that sense since the Rebels’ average distance to go was 6.3 yards. 

Oklahoma’s quarterback and running back tandem of John Mateer and Tory Blaylock have combined for 21 explosive runs, and the Sooners should have a big advantage in the trenches against a Volunteers defense that ranks outside the top 110 in Rush EPA allowed.

FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering a spread higher than the key number of three, making the hook worth paying up for the -124 odds at a 55.36% implied probability. If the Sooners cover, my $10 winning wager would return $8.06 in profits.

💡 College football expert picks: Week 10

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🐈 Cincinnati +10.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

From the start of Week 2 to the beginning of Week 9, Cincinnati’s offense ranked second among FBS teams in Offensive Efficiency (92) and eighth in scoring (41.3 PPG). 

The Bearcats put up another 41 points and 376 total yards against Baylor last week while possessing the football for more than 10 minutes longer.

This line ballooned from an opening number of +6.5 once it was revealed that Cincinnati’s leading rusher, Evan Pryor, would be out with an ankle injury. But this is too much of an overreaction to one player, as Wisconsin transfer Tawee Walker averages 5.2 yards per carry and should fill in nicely.

FanDuel is the only one of the best sports betting apps still offering a line in the single digits (+9.5), so the +10.5 at BetMGM is a steal in comparison. Through its -115 odds at a 53.49% implied probability, I am laying down a $10 wager in the hopes of netting $8.70 in profit.

💰 Best college football player prop bets for Week 10

⬆️ Jadan Baugh Over 62.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐

Florida running back Jadan Baugh is coming off a career-high 150 rushing yards against Mississippi State. I am making him a part of my best college football player props as I expect him to be a big beneficiary of the Gators’ new, faster-paced offense under interim head coach Billy Gonzales.

Gonzales’ hints that the team will play much faster than its season-long 28.7 seconds per play average to this point is the biggest reason for backing Baugh’s rushing total. However, this is only a three-star play, as it will likely take a decent amount of volume to cash given that Georgia’s defense allows the second-fewest runs of 10-plus yards this year.

Baugh’s O/U is slightly higher at 63.5 at the top end of the market, so the best number (62.5) is at FanDuel. A -114 price at 53.27% implied odds would net $8.77 on a winning $10 wager.

🔥 Jadarian Price to score a first-half touchdown (-125) ⭐⭐⭐

Notre Dame running back Jadarian Price has as high as a 77.78% implied probability to score a touchdown based on bet365’s -350 odds at the high end of the market. Therefore, I am mitigating those steep odds by backing Price to score in the first half.

The Fighting Irish are a 28.5-point favorite to beat Boston College, which means they should utilize Price plenty to spell lead back Jeremiyah Love. Price has scored multiple touchdowns in two of the four games Notre Dame won by 20-plus points, and he has had a first-half touchdown in four of the last six games overall.

If Price scores in the first 30 minutes for the fifth time in the last seven games, my $10 winning wager through DraftKings’ -125 odds (carrying a 55.56% implied probability) would net $8 in profits. Head to our college football predictions for Week 10 for dozens more best bets for this week's slate.