College Football Best Bets for Week 1: Our Expert Picks, ATS Predictions & Player Props

Labor Day Weekend is loaded with elite college football matchups, and I dive into all three of the top-10 matchups this week and more with my college football best bets for Week 1.

My best college football picks make the case for Texas to avenge its semifinal loss to Ohio State, and predict a MAC school to upset a team from the SEC for the second straight year. Don't miss the rest of our college football predictions for Week 1.

🏈 College football best bets & expert picks: Week 1

College football best bets made Friday; odds subject to change.

• Texas ML (+100 via BetMGM) vs. Ohio State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Toledo +10.5 (-118 via FanDuel) vs. Kentucky ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• LSU-Clemson Over 57.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Notre Dame-Miami Under 49.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Richard Young to score Alabama’s first touchdown (+285 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

🔮 Best college football predictions: ATS, ML, O/U

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

🚀 Toledo +10.5 (-118) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Do not sleep on Toledo in this game just because it is a MAC team playing on the road against an SEC opponent. Last year, the Rockets beat Mississippi State - a team that finished with just one fewer conference win than Kentucky - by 24 points, and Jason Candle’s squad returns a conference-best 75% of its offensive production from a season ago.

I am not wowed by Kentucky naming Zach Calzada its starting quarterback after he completed fewer than 56% of his passes in his previous stint as an SEC signal-caller, and I even called for the outright upset in this game as part of my college football upset picks for Week 1.

Though FanDuel charges bettors a price of -118 (carrying a 54.13% implied probability that Toledo covers), it is my preferred choice for this wager among the best sports betting sites as the only shop offering a spread higher than the key number of 10. A $10 winning wager would return $8.47 in profits.

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⬆️ LSU-Clemson Over 57.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

LSU has some work to do defensively to improve upon last year’s conference rankings of 14th in points per game allowed, 11th in yards per game allowed, and 14th in turnovers. The Tigers will be tested early against a Clemson offense that returns 85% of its offensive production and the most overall returning production (80%) among FBS schools.

While LSU’s five-game losing streak in season openers is the longest active among power conference teams, the better play is the Over, as I expect a shootout between two Heisman Trophy-caliber quarterbacks. This is a sharp line with the same 57.5-point total across the best sports betting apps. At the standard -110 juice, a $10 winning wager would pay $9.09 in profits.

⬇️ Notre Dame-Miami Under 49.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Meanwhile, Miami’s defense will be sure to key in Notre Dame’s running back duo of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, who combined for 1,871 yards and 24 touchdowns last year. The Fighting Irish are starting their sixth different quarterback in six years, and I do not expect CJ Carr to light it up in this environment in his first collegiate start.

This line has plummeted from an opening number of 53.5. But I still find value in Under 49.5, which has a 52.38% implied probability of cashing at the lower number. Bettors would profit $9.09 on a winning $10 wager.

💰 Best college football player prop bet for Week 1

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

🔥 Richard Young to score Alabama’s first touchdown (+285) ⭐⭐⭐

Alabama’s returning leading rusher, Jam Miller, has been ruled out for this season opener against Florida State with a collarbone injury. That leaves the Crimson Tide lead backfield duties to Richard Young, who has as high as a 68.25% implied probability to find the end zone through DraftKings’ -215 odds.

I expect Alabama to lean on the running game in quarterback Ty Simpson’s first start, and backing Young to score the team’s first touchdown is a great way to find value beyond his steep anytime touchdown odds. If Young is the first Crimson Tide player to score on Saturday, a $10 winning wager would net a profit of $28.50.

We're also backing Young to have a big day on the ground in our Alabama vs. Florida State prediction.

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🐂 Texas ML (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The No. 1 ranked team in the country has been an underdog in the regular season six times in the last 20 seasons - that group covered four times while winning three straight up.

The main thing Texas has going against it is playing on the road. Otherwise, Ohio State has the less experienced quarterback (Julian Sayin) with just 84 career passing yards ahead of his first start, returns less production, and is breaking in two new coordinators. I expect the Longhorns to get revenge for last year’s CFP semifinal loss.

BetMGM is the only one of the best college football betting sites offering plus-money odds with an exact 50% implied probability that Texas will pull off the upset. At a price of +100, bettors would double their initial winning wager, matching whatever they bet in profits.

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🔮 College football Week 1 expert picks

• College football AI predictions
• College football predictions & picks
• College football anytime touchdown scorer predictions
• College football player props
• College football best bets
• College football moneyline parlay
• College football picks against the spread
• College football upset picks
• College football trends that matter

❓ College football betting FAQs

What are the best bets for college football Week 1?

My best bets for college football Week 1 are Texas to win outright, Toledo to cover, LSU and Clemson to go over the projected total, Notre Dame and Miami to cash the Under, and Richard Young to score Alabama’s first touchdown.

How do college football odds work?

When betting on college football odds, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.

Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.

You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.

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