Navy vs. Memphis Prediction & Odds: Thanksgiving College Football Week 14 Betting Preview

My Navy vs. Memphis prediction breaks down the only FBS college football game on the Thanksgiving Thursday slate, as this American Conference regular season finale kicks off from Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tenn. at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).

Memphis is anywhere from a 4.5 to 5.5-point betting favorite as it seeks its nine straight conference win on a Thursday. But my college football Week 14 predictions back the Midshipmen based on their ATS head-to-head success in this rivalry.

✅ Navy vs. Memphis prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 14.

🏈 Navy vs. Memphis preview & score prediction

Memphis was red-hot on a five-game winning streak entering last year’s matchup against Navy, but was stopped in its tracks in a 56-44 road loss in Annapolis. 

With the Midshipmen being the only team in this matchup with a chance to appear in the American Conference Championship, it has another great chance to upset a reeling Tigers team after covering the spread as underdogs in each of the last two years in this matchup.

Don’t let defensive metrics fool you

Navy’s defense ranks 118th in yards per play allowed, while Memphis’ sits much higher at 68th. But the Tigers’ total has jumped to 5.9 yards per play allowed in seven conference games, which is a big reason why it has lost three straight one-score battles.

Memphis’ defense had no answer for Navy’s offense last year, as the Midshipmen totaled 566 yards with quarterback Blake Horvath accounting for six of the team’s eight touchdowns.

If this game is again close late, I will side with a Midshipmen squad that is 4-0 SU in games decided by one possession this year. That bucks the trend that Navy is 0-5 ATS against non-AP-ranked teams. 

The best number and price is at BetMGM, whose spread of +5.5 is a full point higher than those top sports betting sites at +4.5 with higher -106 juice at 51.46% implied odds to back the underdogs. If Navy covers the spread, my $10 wager through BetMGM’s -105 odds would net $9.52 in profits.

Score prediction: Memphis 31, Navy 27

🆚 Navy vs. Memphis matchup to watch

Blake Horvath vs. Memphis front seven

The Navy offense has come a long way in its evolution from an almost exclusive triple-option attack, as evidenced by the O/U of Horvath’s passing yards as high as 128.5. 

While Horvath has already cracked the school’s top-10 in rushing yards, I expect him to air it out more in this game, especially since he trails only Roger Staubach in completion percentage among Midshipmen quarterbacks all-time.

Horvath has stayed Under this projected total in consecutive games after rushing for at least 130 yards in three straight. But he also missed the Notre Dame game with an injury and was removed a couple of times in the last game against South Florida. 

With concerns over how healthy Horvath is and with Memphis likely to key on him after he torched the Tigers for 211 rushing yards and 7.6 yards per carry last year, I am intrigued by the contrarian nature of this wager.

Best prop bet: Blake Horvath Under 122.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

📊 Navy vs. Memphis odds

See live college football odds for every game in Week 14.

📈 Navy vs. Memphis betting trends

🌤️ Navy vs. Memphis weather

Temperatures will drop into the low 30s on Thursday night in Memphis, with wind light at 5 mph. There is a 0% chance of precipitation throughout the evening.

📺 How to watch Navy vs. Memphis

• Date: Thursday, Nov. 27
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tenn.)
• TV: ESPN