Navy vs. Memphis Player Props for Thanksgiving: Best Bets & TD Picks for Week 14

I’m backing one of the nation’s top rushers and fading one of the nation’s worst secondaries with my three Navy vs. Memphis player props for a Thanksgiving battle at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis, Tenn. (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Memphis is a 5.5-point betting favorite in this American Conference clash, and my trio of wagering recommendations are part of our college football predictions for Week 14.

✅ Navy vs. Memphis player prop bets for Thanksgiving

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 14.

💰 Best Navy vs. Memphis player props: Thanksgiving

⬆️ Blake Horvath player prop: Over 122.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Blake Horvath’s impressive six-game streak of 100-yard rushing games ended in Week 12, when the Navy quarterback produced just 60 yards on 21 carries in a 41-38 win over South Florida. At first glance, it’s a bit concerning, since Memphis has been slightly better at stopping the run than USF — the Tigers rank 40th in rush defense; the Bulls are 44th. 

But rewind the clock to last season, when Memphis had the nation’s 15th-best run defense — a defense that Horvath torched for a career-best 211 yards on just 12 carries. Obviously, the Tigers haven’t forgotten that. But that doesn’t mean they’ve gotten better at containing mobile quarterbacks. To wit: USF’s Byrum Brown racked up 121 ground yards at Memphis in Week 9.

Bet this Navy vs. Memphis Thanksgiving player prop at FanDuel, where the -114 odds carry a 53.27% implied win probability. Risk $10 to win $8.77.

⬆️ Brendon Lewis player prop: Over 234.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐

Navy’s secondary is allowing 263.9 air yards per game — only 10 FBS schools are worse. To be fair, the Middies faced the nation’s top two passers in Drew Mestemaker (North Texas) and Caden Veltkamp (FAU). That duo threw for 234 and 299 yards, respectively. Navy also faced UAB’s Jalen Kitna, who ranks 20th in passing yards, and he put up 304.

However, the Middies also have gone up against teams ranked 135th (Rice), 126th (Air Force), 98th (Temple) and 68th (Tulsa) in passing yards, and still they’re 126th in pass defense. Which brings me to Memphis’ Brendon Lewis: He’s cleared 300 yards in two of his last four games against opponents that rank 125th (Tulane) and 128th (USF) in pass defense.

Lay -114 odds on this Navy vs. Memphis Thanksgiving player prop at FanDuel. Implied win probability: 53.27%. Payout on a winning $10 bet: $8.77.

Our college football expert Mike Spector breaks this game down further in his Navy vs. Memphis Prediction.

6️⃣ Best Navy vs. Memphis touchdown scorer bet: Thanksgiving

🔥 Blake Horvath TD pick: Score 2+ touchdowns (+175) ⭐⭐

Not only is Navy quarterback Blake Horvath the nation’s fifth-leading rusher, but his 13 rushing touchdowns are more than all but 10 FBS players. In fact, Horvath has logged three more TDs on the ground than through the air. He’s scored multiple times in four games this season and six of 11 dating to the end of last year.

Meanwhile, Memphis has surrendered 17 rushing scores in 10 FBS contests, with quarterbacks recording six of those TDs. That includes a two-touchdown game from South Florida’ Byrum Brown. Think Brown’s performance was impressive? Horvath doubled that TD output versus the Tigers last year — yep, four of his 12 carries ended in the end zone.

DraftKings’ +175 price on this Navy vs. Memphis prop is the best available. The implied win probability is 36.36%, and a winning $10 bet will pay $17.50.

📊 Navy vs. Memphis anytime touchdown scorer odds

See live college football odds for every game in Week 14.

📺 How to watch Navy vs. Memphis: Thanksgiving 2025

• Date: Thursday, Nov. 27
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tenn.)
• TV: ESPN