Missouri State vs. New Mexico State Prediction, Picks & Odds: Who'll Win in College Football Week 9?

Missouri State and New Mexico State kick off the second game of a Wednesday night doubleheader, and I break down the CUSA matchup with my Missouri State vs. New Mexico State prediction and picks.

Missouri State is a 1.5-point road betting favorite, but my college football picks expect New Mexico State to remain undefeated as home underdogs. I also added a play on the total to my college football predictions for Week 9, as both teams’ poor rushing offenses should lead to a defensive struggle. Kickoff is at 9 p.m. ET from Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, N.M. (CBSSN).

🏈 Missouri State vs. New Mexico State prediction

College football picks for Week 9; odds subject to change.

• Game prediction: New Mexico State ML (+102 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Under 52 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win Missouri State vs. New Mexico State?

Both teams enter at 3-3, while New Mexico State is a perfect 3-0 at home and winless on the road. The Aggies were in this same position as 1.5-point home underdogs to Sam Houston two weeks ago and dominated for a 37-10 victory. I am banking on New Mexico State improving to 4-0 at home and 3-0 as home ‘dogs.

✅ Best Missouri State vs. New Mexico State bet

🤠 New Mexico State ML (+102) ⭐⭐⭐

New Mexico State has relished the underdog role of late with back-to-back covers (and one outright win) after a 1-2 ATS start in its first three games as ‘dogs to begin the season. 

I expect the Aggies to continue the momentum from last week when they outscored CUSA contender Liberty by 11 points in the second half and held a seven-point lead before losing by three in a game they were 11.5-point underdogs.

Red-zone defense is key

New Mexico State’s best path to a home upset is to continue its stingy red-zone defense. The Aggies rank 26th in FBS in red-zone defense (76.5%), while Missouri State’s red-zone offense has been largely inefficient, ranking outside the top 80 with an 83.3% success rate.

With the Aggies only getting 1.5 points on the spread, there is much more value in backing them to win outright as opposed to taking the points. 

DraftKings is the only of one our best sports betting sites offering better than +100 odds at a 50% implied probability for the upset, and a winning $10 wager would net $10.20 in profits if New Mexico State remains unbeaten at home.

⚖️ Missouri State vs. New Mexico State score prediction: New Mexico State 24-Missouri State 21 

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

⬇️ Under 52 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Missouri State is one of the most profitable teams to the Under, cashing it in five of six games. And in the four games that New Mexico State has played with an O/U of at least 51.5 points, the Under is 3-1. Those three cashes have also been by an average of 17.8 points.

Neither team possesses an efficient enough running game to keep the chains moving for lengthy drives. Missouri State and New Mexico State rank 127th or worse in rushing offense. And the Bears’ offensive ceiling is low, given that they average 0.3 points per play (96th in FBS) and face an Aggies defense that allows the 16th-fewest points per play (0.3).

The Under is down as much as a full point from an opening number of 52.5, so I am heading to Caesars to take advantage of one of the only remaining best sports betting apps offering a slightly higher total of 52. Through its -110 odds at a 52.38% implied probability, a $10 wager would return $9.09 in profits if the Under cashes.

📊 Missouri State vs. New Mexico State odds

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.

📺 How to watch Missouri State vs. New Mexico State

• Date: Wednesday, Oct. 22
• Kickoff: 9 p.m. ET
• Where: Aggie Memorial Stadium (Las Cruces, N.M.)
• TV: CBSSN