Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee Prediction: College Football Week 7 Odds & Expert Picks

I’m here to dish out my Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee prediction for Weekday CUSA action as our college football picks series continues. The action is scheduled to get underway from Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium (Murfreesboro, Tenn.) on Wednesday, Oct. 8, at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2).

Missouri State is a 1.5-point betting favorite in what the books expect will be a close game. Make sure to check out the rest of our college football predictions for Week 7 so that you don’t miss out on any winning plays, including the below player prop for Missouri State’s Shomari Lawrence.

🏈 Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee predictions

College football expert picks for Week 7; odds subject to change.

• Game pick: Missouri State (-132 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Under 51 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐
• Player prop bet: Shomari Lawrence Over 55.5 rushing yards (-113 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

✅ Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee expert pick

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

🐻 Missouri State ML (-132) ⭐⭐⭐

It is hard to overstate how sorry the Middle Tennessee football program is right now. The season began with a 20-point loss to FCS Austin Peay. Since then, the Blue Raiders have just one win, a one-point road victory over Nevada. This team lost by 24 points to Marshall at home – an opponent that Missouri State edged out by a point on the road. Middle Tennessee ranks 132nd in the FEI (which only counts FBS programs) and 181st in Sagarin’s rankings (which counts FBS and FCS programs). 

Missouri State isn’t much better, but quarterback Jacob Clark inspires some confidence – although he is day-to-day with an injury. As a program, Missouri State edges Middle Tennessee in the FEI (125th) and Sagarin’s rankings (136th). Individually, Clark ranks an impressive 41st in passing efficiency (150.2), clearing his Middle Tennessee counterpart, 1,009th-ranked Nicholas Vattiato (116.5). If Clark can’t go, we’ll likely get Deuce Bailey, who was shaky as a passer but still threw for 57 yards and a score while adding 64 yards on the ground in relief of Clark recently.

The market is giving Middle Tennessee the benefit of home-field advantage, but there really isn’t any in Murfreesboro. The Blue Raiders are 0-2 at home so far this year and are 1-7 at home under head coach Derek Mason. They have the same record against the spread at home, too. Middle Tennessee is an embarrassing 4-13 against the spread under Mason, and I expect more of the same from this program on Wednesday night. 

I am waiting for some quarterback news in this matchup, but I feel comfortable about buying Missouri State to win this one outright at -132 (56.9% implied probability). That will score you a $7.58 profit on a $10 bet. Still, you can probably get a better number if Clark is ruled out, which appears likely.

💰 Best Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee player prop bet

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Shomari Lawrence Over 55.5 rushing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

With questions at quarterback for Missouri State, let’s back the team’s lead rusher for a big game on the ground. Clark could suit up, but if he does, the Bears will likely look to take some of the pressure off his shoulders by running more. Lawrence went Over this total against Western Kentucky with 78 yards on 16 carries, which speaks to his increased role in this offense without Clark. He also went Over against FCS Tennessee-Martin on only eight carries.

The Middle Tennessee rushing defense isn’t a concern. The Blue Raiders rank 109th in yards per carry allowed (5 YPC). Although the defensive front is unremarkable but not awful, the 1.4 open-field yards allowed per rush is an opportunity for Lawrence to tear off a chunk run and cash the Over. Missouri State’s offensive line doesn’t generate many line yards, but Lawrence and the team’s other rushers have helped the program average 1.3 second-level yards and 1.6 open-field yards per rush. 

Lock in Lawrence for a solid performance in Murfreesboro. You can get him for Over 55.5 rushing yards at -113 (53.1% implied probability) at Caesars to score an $8.85 profit on a $10 bet.

📊 Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee odds

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.

📺 How to watch Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee: Week 7

• Date: Wednesday, Oct. 8
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium (Murfreesboro, Tenn.)
• TV: ESPN2