Mississippi State vs. Missouri Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 12 Betting Preview
My Mississippi State vs. Missouri prediction dives into whether the Tigers can move the football with their third-string freshman quarterback after Matt Zollers struggled mightily in his first-career start.
Mississippi State, meanwhile, needs one of its final two games to qualify for a bowl game. But the Bulldogs malleable run defense might hold them back from getting it done in this spot, according to our college football Week 12 predictions.
The action kicks off for Mississippi State vs. Missouri from Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium in Columbia, Mo., Saturday at 7:45 p.m. ET (SEC Network). Missouri is a 7-point betting favorite.
✅ Mississippi State vs. Missouri prediction & expert picks
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🏈 Mississippi State vs. Missouri preview & score prediction
Missouri was trounced by Texas A&M at home to end its slim hopes of climbing back into the CFP race. The Tigers had hoped to see more from freshman QB Matt Zollers in his first collegiate start after he looked competent in a relief role at Vanderbilt before the bye week. But Zollers was clearly overwhelmed by the Aggie defense, going 7-for-22 for just 77 passing yards.
There should be slightly more room for Zollers to operate against a Mississippi State pass defense that ranks 68th in FBS (225.8 yards per game), but the Bulldogs like to blitz and Zollers could conceivably wilt again under that pressure.
The limitations at quarterback are why I expect Mississippi State to hang around in this game, but Missouri should be able to lean on its strengths to win a close one.
Don’t make Zollers do it - just run the ball
Mississippi State has allowed 188.9 rushing yards per game, which ranks 117th in FBS. Missouri’s 234.0 rushing yards per game ranks 7th in the nation. Missouri’s goal should be to run the ball and win ugly, if necessary.
The Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS on the season and have lost only two games by more than seven points. Those losses came against top-5 opponents Georgia and Texas A&M.
BetMGM offers Mississippi State +7 with -110 odds, equating to an implied probability at those odds of 52.38%. The profit on a $10 bet would be $9.09.
Score prediction: Missouri 24, Mississippi State 20
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🆚 Mississippi State vs. Missouri matchup to watch
Ahmad Hardy vs. Mississippi State run defense
As of Friday afternoon, no Over/Under player props are available in the market for this game. If any open up, we’re interested in the rushing yards props going Over for both Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts after both dynamic rushers cleared 100 yards on the ground in the loss to Texas A&M.
Attacking Mississippi State’s soft run defense with this talented duo is the best way to take pressure off the freshman QB. FanDuel offers Missouri’s team rushing yardage prop at 211.5 yards, a number the Bulldogs have surrendered on the ground in consecutive games.
We’ll play this line while noting there’s some risk in Zollers taking enough sack yardage to push the team rushing total below this line (it happened against the Aggies), so keep an eye out for individual player props that may drop from some sportsbooks before Saturday night.
Best prop bet: Missouri team rushing total Over 211.5 yards (-114 via FanDuel)
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📈 Mississippi State vs. Missouri betting trends
| Mississippi State | Statistic | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| 5-5 | W-L record | 6-3 |
| 8-2 | ATS record | 4-4-1 |
| 5-5 | O/U record | 6-3 |
| 5.7 | Yards per play | 6.0 |
| 5.6 | Yards allowed per play | 4.8 |
| +0.4 per game | Turnover margin | -0.3 per game |
| 1-4 | Last 5 games | 2-3 |
| L, 41-21 vs. Georgia | Previous result | L, 38-17 vs. Texas A&M |
🌤️ Mississippi State vs. Missouri weather
After warm anticipated temperatures throughout the day in mid-Missouri, we’re expecting things to get chilly by game time. 40 degree temperatures are expected for Saturday night in Columbia, Mo., with winds at 8 mph N and wind gusts up to 16 mph.
With clear skies and a 0% chance of precipitation, the wind possibility is the only element of the forecast that could impact the action on the field.
📺 How to watch Mississippi State vs. Missouri
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 15
- Kickoff: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium (Columbia, Mo.)
- TV: SEC Network
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