Minnesota vs. Oregon Prediction Tonight: College Football Week 12 Betting Preview & Odds
There's not much wiggle room near the top of the Big Ten standings, especially for No. 8 Oregon as it welcomes Minnesota to town. My Minnesota vs. Oregon prediction dives into tonight's college football nightcap with Oregon lined as a 25.5-point betting favorite ahead of kickoff from Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore., at 9 p.m. ET (FOX).
My college football Week 12 predictions thinks the home team can get it done, and look to the man under center for my favorite player prop.
✅ Minnesota vs. Oregon prediction & expert picks
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🏈 Minnesota vs. Oregon preview & score prediction
The last few weeks have been rocky for both teams. Oregon secured narrow wins over Iowa and Wisconsin but failed to cover the spread, dropping the Ducks to 5-4 against the spread (ATS) this year. Minnesota eked out a win over Michigan State right after being stomped by Iowa, failing to cover in both games and bringing the Gophers to 2-6-1 ATS.
With both sides in a slump, it’s fair to wonder which will bounce back first. I have to side with Oregon. Despite their recent struggles, the Ducks rank third in the FPI, Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), and Jeff Sagarin’s rankings. The Gophers rank 61st, 55th, and 63rd, respectively. Oregon’s Dante Moore ranks seventh in passing efficiency (164.7), while Minnesota’s Drake Lindsey ranks 97th (123.1).
Oregon bounces back in a big way
Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck has put some solid defenses on the field, but this year’s unit isn’t one of his best. In the FEI, both Wisconsin (34th) and Iowa (fourth) outrank his unit (41st). Both of those programs also lead his team in yards allowed per pass attempt, with Minnesota surrendering 7.7 (and 8.6 over the last three games).
In Minnesota's last game, it allowed Spartans backup QB Alessio Milivojevic to throw for 311 passing yards on 28 attempts (11.1 yards per attempt) in his first start.
After last week’s near-disaster versus Iowa, head coach Dan Lanning needs his squad to get its head on straight, and playing Minnesota at home is the perfect get-right spot. Under Lanning, Oregon is 35-28-1 ATS overall and 5-4 ATS after a loss, winning by an average margin of 17.8 points and covering by an average margin of 5.4.
With Minnesota’s offense ranked 75th in the FEI compared to Oregon’s fifth-ranked unit, the model makes the spread for this game Oregon -29.2. Sagarin has it at Oregon -34.1. While I don’t necessarily advise altering this spread up to that number, there is plenty of value on Oregon -25.5 for -105 (51.2% implied probability) at FanDuel, which will yield a $9.52 profit on a $10 bet.
Score prediction: Oregon 42, Minnesota 13
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🆚 Minnesota vs. Oregon matchup to watch
Dante Moore vs. Minnesota's pass defense
The last few weeks have been tough for Oregon, but they’ve been brutal for Moore. He managed only 112 passing yards at Iowa and 86 versus Wisconsin. He also failed to throw a touchdown pass in either game. The dud performances dropped his average of 240.9 passing yards per game to 209.3. Still, I’m optimistic about a bounce-back showing against this Minnesota unit.
Several numbers reveal that this Minnesota defense is beatable through the air. For one, the Gophers rank 93rd in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.7). They’re also ranked fourth-worst in the Big Ten at limiting explosiveness, despite being above average at limiting explosiveness on the ground. Finally, for all of this defense’s flaws, it ranks 29th in rushing yards allowed per game.
Let’s buy the dip on Moore’s passing prop, which is set at a bargain-bin 195.5 yards at BetMGM. Lock in an Over for -115 (53.5% implied probability) to score an $8.70 profit on a $10 bet.
Best prop bet: Dante Moore Over 195.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM)
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📈 Minnesota vs. Oregon betting trends
| Minnesota | Statistic | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| 6-3 | W-L record | 8-1 |
| 2-6 | ATS record | 4-4 |
| 5-4 | O/U record | 4-5 |
| 5.09 | Yards per play | 7.29 |
| 5.2 | Yards allowed per play | 4.03 |
| +2 | Turnover margin | +6 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
| W, 23-20 vs. Michigan State | Previous result | W, 18-16 vs. Iowa |
🌤️ Minnesota vs. Oregon weather
Rain is unlikely to play a major factor in Friday night’s Minnesota vs. Oregon game. While rain is in the forecast for Thursday and Friday morning, the weather is expected to clear up by kickoff. The evening forecast calls for less than a 5% chance of precipitation, with minimal wind gusts and temperatures in the 50s.
📺 How to watch Minnesota vs. Oregon
- Date: Friday, Nov. 14
- Kickoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Autzen Stadium (Eugene, Ore.)
- TV: FOX
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