Minnesota vs. Ohio State Prediction, Picks & Odds: College Football Week 6

With these teams meeting for the 55th time since 1921, my Minnesota vs. Ohio State prediction and college football picks break down whether or not the Golden Gophers will keep it close against a Buckeyes team that's a 23.5-point betting favorite and hasn't lost in this Big Ten series since 2000.

While Ohio State should cruise to a victory at home at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC, Peacock) against Minnesota, my college football predictions for Week 6 are focused on the Over/Under (43.5).

📊 Minnesota vs. Ohio State odds

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.

🔴 Why Minnesota can cover

It's been a while since the Golden Gophers have kept this game close, and a quarter century since they've beaten the Buckeyes. But losing by less than 24 points? They've done that in four of the last five seasons, with last year's 37-3 loss to the eventual national champions being the exception.

But with Ohio State being less consistent this season after losing so much to the NFL, the Gophers can keep this within 24 points, especially with how well their defense has played. Minnesota is No. 17 in EPA per pass and No. 23 in EPA per rush on defense, and has allowed the ninth-fewest yards per game in the country (230.0).

With the Buckeyes struggling to run the ball so far this season, if Minnesota's defense can get to Julian Sayin and slow down Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate enough, they should avoid a massive blowout. Obviously, Ryan Day's team has far more NFL talent than PJ Fleck's, but this defense has a handful of future Sunday players.

Koi Perich and Kerry Brown are two of the best defensive backs in the Big Ten and are a huge reason why Minnesota ranks No. 21 in SP+ on defense. Meanwhile, cornerback Josh Nestor has been a breakout player, allowing just a 17.2 NFL QB rating. And defensive lineman Anthony Smith is seventh in the Big Ten in pressures (16) and is a rising NFL prospect. 

Notice I didn't say a word about Minnesota's offense? Well, covering is more about Minnesota's defense keeping up its strong play, especially with running back Darius Taylor's status in doubt again. However, QB Drake Lindsey doesn't make many mistakes (1.5% turnover-worthy play rate) and is coming off a strong outing against Rutgers. If Lindsay continues to play mistake-free football to complement his defense, Minnesota can cover.

🌰 Why Ohio State can cover

Isn't it obvious why Ohio State can cover? This is among the most talented rosters in the sport, and the Buckeyes are the college football championship odds favorite (+500). Even with their youth on offense showing up early in the season, Ohio State has the talent to exterminate the Gophers with ease if Sayin comes to play.

He's the key to covering here, and there's been flashes of brilliance, though Ohio State has rarely let him turn it loose. Still, Sayin is No. 14 in the country in QBR (82.2), No. 1 in adjusted completion rate (87.1%), and has the Buckeyes ranked No. 16 in EPA per pass. He's accurate and efficient, and while his risk-averse style can leave a lot to be desired, it's not as noticeable when he's getting the ball in the hands of arguably the best one-two punch at wide receiver in the country.

If the Buckeyes get Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate loose in this secondary, a win by 24-plus points is more than possible. The next great Buckeyes wide receivers have combined for 681 yards and eight touchdowns on 46 touches through four games. Sayin has a better than 135.0 NFL QB rating when throwing to them, with Smith ranking top 15 in the country in yards per route run (3.92) and Tate ranking top 15 in contested catches (5).

If Sayin hits them for a few big plays and can hang 35-plus points, Matt Patricia's defense should do the rest. Ohio State is allowing the fewest points per game in the country (5.5), the eighth-fewest yards per game (229.3), ranks No. 2 in SP+ on defense, and is No. 9 in 3rd/4th down success rate (31.3%).

Despite losing so much to the NFL, Ohio State has the best linebacker duo in the country (Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles), an All-American safety in Caleb Downs, and a defensive line that's come alive thanks to Caden Curry, Kenyatta Jackson Jr., and Kayden McDonald. I have a tough time seeing Minnesota scoring more than 10 points, so a cover will come down to Sayin and the offense.

🏈 Minnesota vs. Ohio State prediction & best bet

I expect that this game will play out very similarly to Ohio State's road win over Washington last week. The Buckeyes' defense will completely shut down an offense led by a young QB - Ohio State is No. 10 in EPA per pass on defense - while Day and Brian Hartline's offense tries to keep things fairly vanilla against a lesser opponent.

The Buckeyes are loaded with blue-chip talent on offense, but they're bringing Sayin along slowly and still figuring out their run game with freshman Bo Jackson beginning to separate himself as the top back. So a huge blowout seems unlikely, especially with the Gophers having one of the top defenses in the Big Ten.

So while I think the Buckeyes win decisively, covering a 23.5-point spread is a big ask, and that's why I'm more comfortable backing the Under in my Minnesota vs. Ohio State prediction, with the game total set at 43.5. The Gophers are 3-1 betting the Under this season, and if they hit it again, a $10 bet at Caesars pays a $9.09 profit.

✅ Score prediction: Ohio State 30, Minnesota 10

💰 Minnesota vs. Ohio State picks

College football expert picks for Week 6; odds subject to change.

📺 How to watch Minnesota vs. Ohio State: Week 6

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 4
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
• TV: NBC, Peacock