Michigan vs. USC Prediction, Picks & Odds: College Football Week 7

I have my Michigan vs. USC prediction all set for an exciting Week 7 slate of action as our college football picks series continues. The action from Los Angeles Memorial Stadium is scheduled for Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC).

USC is a 2.5-point betting favorite, which implies that this contest would be pick’em on a neutral field. While I think the home team is the play in a tight contest, my college football predictions for Week 7 feature a player prop for Michigan QB Bryce Underwood.

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🏈 Michigan vs. USC prediction

College football expert picks for Week 7; odds subject to change.

• Game pick: USC ML (-135 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Under 57.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
• Player prop bet: Bryce Underwood anytime TD (+125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

🆚 Who will win Michigan vs. USC?

Although No. 14 Michigan holds the higher position in the AP Poll, unranked USC should assert itself at home on Saturday evening. The margin is much closer than the poll indicates, at least according to the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) and Jeff Sagarin’s rankings. Per those sources, Michigan ranks 13th and 16th, respectively, while USC ranks 16th and 21st, respectively. Both make USC a home favorite.

The biggest needle-mover has to be the quarterback split. USC’s Jayden Maiava ranks third nationally in passing efficiency (191.1) and second in passing yards per game (317.4). Michigan’s Bryce Underwood may add mobility, but he ranks 85th (130.1) and 75th (200.6) in those metrics. Worse, when playing on the road, Underwood’s passing efficiency plummets to 90.8 with just 123.5 passing yards per game.

Michigan vs. USC score prediction: USC 31 - Michigan 24

✅ Michigan vs. USC best bet

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

🗡️  USC ML (-135) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I don’t hate playing USC to cover the 2.5-point spread, but I’d rather just not risky any close game shenanigans when the Trojans are a nice -135 (57.5%) at bet365 and DraftKings – enough to profit $7.41 on a $10 bet – when the sharp offshores are also at -135. Pregame reports that USC has drawn an impressive 71% of the cash on only 53% of the tickets, indicating sharp action has come in on the Trojans early.

USC’s quarterback advantage, magnified by its home-field advantage, is the primary reason for this bet. Underwood has gone into hostile territory and struggled mightily through the air. Conversely, Maiava is better at home for his career (156.3 to 150.2) and with USC this year (234.9 to 149.1). It’ll be hard for Michigan to stop head coach Lincoln Riley’s incredibly efficient passing attack, and it’ll be even harder for the team’s offense to keep up.

The Trojans will also enjoy an advantage on the ground, which will help them protect whatever lead they build. USC’s offensive line ranks an incredible second in line yards per rush (3.8). While Michigan’s defense limits second-level and open-field yards at an impressive clip, the front itself is allowing a pedestrian 2.8 line yards per rush. If USC can grind out first downs with the ground game late, Michigan may not have the chances it needs to rally from a deficit.

💰 Best Michigan vs. USC player prop bet

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

🔥  Bryce Underwood anytime TD scorer (+125) ⭐⭐⭐

The USC defense has been solid but nothing that impressive to this point in the year, and mobile quarterbacks have certainly caused them a few problems, especially near the end zone. Two weeks ago, Illinois’ Luke Altmyer ran for 28 yards and a score. Three of the five quarterbacks USC has faced – from all three of their Power 4 opponents – managed to scamper into the end zone for a score, including Michigan State’s Aidan Chiles and Purdue’s Ryan Browne.

Underwood has struggled as a passer this year, but he has found an edge on the ground recently. In Week 3, he ran for 114 yards and two scores versus Central Michigan. The next week, he ran for 61 yards and a score at Nebraska. He was able to do plenty of damage through the air against Wisconsin last week, but with his struggles as a passer on the road, I expect him to compensate with some scrambles - and the coaching staff to compensate with some designed runs.

Lock Underwood in as an anytime touchdown scorer for +125 (44.4%) at DraftKings to score a $12.5 profit on a $10 bet.

📊 Michigan vs. USC odds

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.

📺 How to watch Michigan vs. USC: Week 7

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 11
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Los Angeles Memorial Stadium (Los Angeles)
• TV: NBC