Best Michigan vs. USC Player Prop Bets Today: Back Maiava to Torch Wolverines’ Secondary

The Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum is sold out for this weekend’s Big Ten matchup between Michigan and USC that kicks off tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC). The O/U for this game has skyrocketed from the lookahead line of 50.5 to 56.5, and the expected shootout is a factor in my best Michigan vs. USC player prop bets.

USC quarterback and Heisman Trophy hopeful Jayden Maiava is the centerpiece of my college football picks,  but I add plays on a USC wide receiver and Michigan running back to my college football predictions for Week 7.

🏈 Michigan vs. USC player prop bets

College football player prop bets for Week 7; odds subject to change.

• Jayden Maiava Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-150 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Makai Lemon Over 82.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Justice Haynes first half anytime TD scorer (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

💰 Best Michigan vs. USC player prop picks

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬆️ Jayden Maiava Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-150) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I am paying up slightly for my most confident five-star and best Michigan vs. USC player prop pick. Jayden Maiava is the signal caller of a USC offense that ranks first nationally in Offensive SP+, as well as Success Rate (57.4%), points per drive (4.30), and yards per play (8.53). 

I expect Maiava to throw for multiple touchdowns as he faces a Michigan defense that ranks outside the top 50 in pass EPA allowed. He is a big reason USC ranks second among FBS teams in Offensive Finishing Drives, and USC’s team total of O/U 28.5 points suggests there is a good chance it scores at least four touchdowns in this game.

I fully expected to have to look into an alternate passing touchdown total of 2.5 figuring this Over would be juiced closer to -200. But these 60% implied odds are a steal, and my $10 wager through BetMGM’s -150 odds would net $6.67 in profits if Maiava throws for multiple touchdowns for the fifth time in six games.

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⬆️ Makai Lemon Over 82.5 receiving yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

USC receiver Makai Lemon has been Maiava’s favorite target by far this season, as his 35 receptions make him the only Trojans pass catcher with more than 13 catches on the season. 

Lemon is not only a big-play threat (his 74-yard touchdown against Georgia Southern is the longest USC pass play of the season), but he is explosive on intermediate routes, catching 17 of 19 targets on passing under nine air yards and turning those into an average of 4.5 yards per route run.

Michigan’s strength defensively is in the trenches, allowing the seventh-fewest yards per carry (3.3). That is why I expect USC to challenge the Wolverines early and often through the air, as Michigan ranks 89th in yards per dropback when employing man coverage.

If Lemon records 83-plus receiving yards for the fifth time in six games, my $10 winning wager through FanDuel’s -114 price at 53.27% implied odds would net $8.77 in profits.

🔥 Justice Haynes first half anytime touchdown scorer (+105) ⭐⭐⭐

Michigan running back Justice Haynes has -250 odds (carrying a 71.43% implied probability) to score an anytime touchdown. But I am mitigating that steep price by expecting him to score in the first half, as I expect him to be a focal point of Michigan’s offense early and often.

Haynes is a big part of a dominant ground game that ranks sixth in yards per carry (6.7) and 12th in rushing EPA. Wolverines rushers are also elite at generating production both before and after contact, averaging at least 3.26 yards in each split.

Haynes should have a field day against a USC defense that ranks outside the top 100 in rush efficiency and explosives allowed.

A $10 wager on Haynes’ anytime touchdown odds would only stand to net $4 in profits. But by limiting this wager to the first half, a $10 winning wager would return a total payout of $20.50.

Our Isaiah Sirois targets Michigan QB Bryce Underwood with his Michigan vs. USC prediction.

📊 Michigan vs. USC odds today

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.

📺 How to watch Michigan vs. USC: Week 7

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 11
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles)
• TV: NBC