Michigan vs. Texas Predictions & Odds | 2025 Citrus Bowl Best Bet & TD Pick
One program is dealing with a coaching scandal, while the other is dealing with a mass exodus of players, but my Michigan vs. Texas predictions are projecting a decisive win in the Citrus Bowl for the team with the more proven former No. 1 recruit at QB.
Texas is a 6.5-point betting favorite for today's 3 p.m. ET (ESPN) Citrus Bowl from Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla., and my college bowl game predictions like Arch Manning to shine in his first bowl start.
Stay ahead this bowl season with our updated college football bowl game odds and schedule.
🏈 Michigan vs. Texas predictions: 2025 Citrus Bowl
See the latest college football odds and our college football picks for every bowl game.
| Predictions | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Texas -6.5 | -122 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Arch Manning anytime TD | +103 via Caesars | ⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 Michigan vs. Texas best bet
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Texas -6.5 (-122) ⭐⭐⭐
Texas enters the Citrus Bowl in a far more stable situation than the Wolverines, despite a handful of opt-outs and transfers. This is Michigan's first game since the Sherrone Moore scandal, and interim Biff Poggi has a career 8-16 record as a head coach.
On top of that, Michigan's running back room has been banged up all season, and offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey left for Missouri, giving freshman QB Bryce Underwood a new play-caller.
And with Manning accounting for 15 touchdowns in his last five starts, he can expose a Michigan team missing its top pass rushers.
Score prediction: Texas 30, Michigan 23
🙌 Best Michigan vs. Texas touchdown pick: Citrus Bowl
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Arch Manning, QB, Texas: Anytome TD (+103) ⭐⭐⭐
Unlike his uncles, Manning inherited his namesake's athleticism and has been doing his best Archie impression all season while leading the Longhorns in total touchdowns (9).
With Texas losing its top two running backs to the transfer portal, Manning's mobility will be leaned on against a Wolverines' defense down three of its starters in the front seven.
He's scored in two straight games, including in the upset win over Texas A&M, and Steve Sarkisian isn't afraid to use him on designed runs.
Manning has more rush attempts on designed runs (31) than on scrambles this season (25).
📝 Top NFL draft prospects for Citrus Bowl
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| Player | Position | Key stats | NFL draft grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Goosby, Texas | OT | 3 sacks, 16 pressures allowed | Round 1-2 |
| Arch Manning, Texas | QB | 32 total TDs | Round 1-2 (returning to school) |
| Jyaire Hill, Michigan | CB | 1 INT, 5 PBUs | Round 3-5 |
| DJ Campbell, Texas | OG | 1 sack, 18 pressures allowed | Round 4-6 |
| Jack Endries, Texas | TE | 311 receiving yards, 2 TDs | Round 4-6 |
| Rayshaun Benny, Michigan | IDL | 13 run stops, 3 TFLs | Round 5-7 |
| Hero Kanu, Texas | IDL | 16 run stops, 4 TFLs | Round 5-7 |
| TJ Metcalf, Michigan | SAF | 51 tackles, 1 INT | Round 5-7 |
| Marlin Klein, Michigan | TE | 209 receiving yards, 1 TD | Round 6-UDFA |
| Donaven McCulley, Michigan | WR | 534 receiving yards, 3 TDs | Round 6-UDFA |
📊 Live Michigan vs. Texas odds: Citrus Bowl
Michigan vs. Texas opening odds
- Moneyline: Michigan +240 | Texas -300
- Spread: Michigan +7.5 (-110) | Texas -7.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (-110) | Under 46.5 (-110)
📈 Michigan vs. Texas betting trends
| Michigan | Statistic | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| 9-3 | W-L record | 9-3 |
| 4-8 | ATS record | 4-7-1 |
| 6-6 | O/U record | 5-7 |
| 6.3 | Yards per play | 5.9 |
| 4.8 | Yards allowed per play | 4.9 |
| +0.3 | Turnover margin | +1.0 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
| L, 27-9 vs. Ohio State | Previous result | W, 27-17 vs. Texas A&M |
📺 How to watch Michigan vs. Texas: Citrus Bowl
- Date: Wednesday, Dec. 31
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Fla.)
- TV: ABC
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