Michigan State vs. USC Prediction, Odds & Picks: Late-Night Bonanza For Maiava?
The late-night kickoff on the West Coast could inspire plenty of points as our Michigan State vs. USC prediction sees value on the Over with a reasonable line that hasn’t moved much since it opened.
Our college football picks lean into the potent USC passing offense against a Michigan State pass defense that has been pretty generous against lesser competition than USC QB Jayden Maiava to this point.
The action for Michigan State vs. USC kicks off at 11 p.m. ET from LA Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles (FOX).
For more of our college football predictions for Week 4, scroll down for a player prop on Maiava, as his passing yardage prop sits at a line that the Trojan gunslinger has cleared in three straight games to start the season.
🏈 Michigan State vs. USC prediction to win
College football expert odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: USC (-900 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: USC -18.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 55 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
📝 Michigan State vs. USC best bet
Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.
⬆️ Over 55 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
A USC offense that ranks 5th in the nation in adjusted efficiency is going to be problematic for Sparty, whose top-50 ranking in yards per game is largely derived from a shutdown run defense. But Michigan State has surrendered 273.3 passing yards per game, ranking as one of the more generous units in the country in that regard.
An efficient passing game is the Trojans’ calling card, which should lead to scoring for a USC side that enters this game averaging 55.0 points per game. If Michigan State contributes anything close to its 35.3 PPG average, this game should get Over a game total that has fallen by a half-point since it opened.
At publish time, the best odds available for Over 55 sit at -110 at bet365, with an implied probability at those odds of 52.38%. A winning $10 bet would profit $9.09.
💰 Best Michigan State vs. USC player prop pick
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Jayden Maiava Over 277.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
In its lone Power 4 matchup of the season to date, Michigan State surrendered 390 passing yards to Boston College in a home game. It then permitted 242 passing yards to Youngstown State the following weekend.
USC ranks fifth in the nation in passing yards per game (364.0) as Maiava has cleared this 277.5-yard passing line in three straight contests to begin the year.
The best odds on Maiava Over 277.5 passing yards come from FanDuel at -114. The implied probability at those odds is 53.27%. A winning $10 bet on this prop would profit $8.77.
📊 Michigan State vs. USC odds: Week 4
Michigan State vs. USC odds update live in real time.
📈 Michigan State vs. USC opening odds
- Moneyline: Michigan State +525 | USC -750
- Spread: Michigan State +15.5 (-110) | USC -15.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 (-110) | Under 55.5 (-110)
🔍 Michigan State vs. USC odds analysis
The spread opened at USC -15.5 and has risen to USC -18.5 across most of our best sportsbooks, while pushing to -19.5 at BetMGM. I expect this line to continue rising on USC’s side to as high as -20.5 as public bettors look to target the more prominent brand with the late-night kickoff on Saturday, so we still don’t mind the value at -18.5.
The total has dipped slightly in some spots to 55 after opening at 55.5. We’re targeting that lower number from Caesars and bet365 as we would be surprised to see the line dip much further given the statistical advantage of the offenses over the defenses in this matchup.
🔢 Michigan State vs. USC key stats
Season stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
| Michigan State | Statistic (per game) | USC |
|---|---|---|
| 35.3 | Points | 55.0 |
| 23.3 | Points allowed | 16.7 |
| -0.3 | Turnover margin | +1.6 |
| 218.7 | Passing yards | 364.0 |
| 168.0 | Rushing yards | 240.0 |
| 273.3 | Passing yards allowed | 233.0 |
| 64.3 | Rushing yards allowed | 86.3 |
| +0.6 | Net yards per play | +4.9 |
📺 Michigan State vs. USC game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 20
- Kickoff: 11 p.m. ET
- Where: LA Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles)
- How to watch: FOX
❓ Michigan State vs. USC FAQs
Who is favored to win Michigan State vs. USC?
USC is favored to win the matchup of Michigan State vs. USC with odds of -900 on the moneyline, up from the opening moneyline odds of USC -750.
What is the spread for Michigan State vs. USC?
After opening at USC -15.5, the spread for Michigan State vs. USC is USC -18.5 across several of our top sportsbooks, while BetMGM has it at -19.5.
What is the Over/Under for Michigan State vs. USC?
The Over/Under for Michigan State vs. USC is between 55 and 55.5 across our top sportsbooks, after opening at 55.5.
What are the best bets for Michigan State vs. USC?
My best bets for Michigan State vs. USC include Over 55 and Jayden Maiava Over 277.5 passing yards.
When is the Michigan State vs. USC game?
Michigan State vs. USC will kick off at 11 p.m. ET on FOX.
How do college football odds work?
When betting on college football, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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