Miami vs. Texas A&M Prediction: 2025 College Football Playoff Odds & Best Bet

The Hurricanes’ inclusion in the College Football Playoff was met with some scrutiny, but my Miami vs. Texas A&M prediction and early picks have confidence that they belong. 

No. 7 Texas A&M is a 3.5-point betting favorite over No. 10 Miami based on the opening odds, but my college football predictions are backing the underdogs in a difficult “12th man” environment. Kickoff from Kyle Field in College Station, Texas, is set for noon ET (ABC/ESPN) on Saturday.

Stay ahead this bowl season with our updated college football bowl game odds and schedule.

🏈 Early Miami vs. Texas A&M prediction: CFP first round

Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football picks for every bowl game.

Miami +3.5 (-109) ⭐⭐⭐

If any team is built to offset Texas A&M’s many strengths, it is Miami. The Aggies' defense ranks in the top five nationally in success rate allowed and is No. 2 in havoc rate. But the Hurricanes' offensive line allows the second-lowest pressure rate in the country (1.4%). 

That is a big reason Miami stays on schedule and doesn’t find itself in third-and-long situations often, as it ranks in the top 10 in standard-downs success rate.

While Texas A&M’s offense ranks 12th in explosive completion rate, Miami should win the time of possession battle by playing at the 130th-slowest tempo in the country.

Ultimately, this game could come down to turnovers. In that department, I trust the Hurricanes and their plus-nine turnover margin more than I do the Aggies, whose quarterback (Marcel Reed) has a 17-to-18 big-time throw-to-turnover worthy play rate this season. 

Through Caesars’ -109 price and 52.15% implied odds, a $10 wager would net $9.17 in profit if Miami covers.

📊 Live Miami vs. Texas A&M odds: CFP Round 1

See the latest college football odds for every bowl game in real time.

Miami vs. Texas A&M opening odds

• Moneyline: Miami +150 | Texas A&M -185
• Spread: Miami +3.5 (-110) | Texas A&M -3.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 51.5 (-110) | Under 51.5 (-110)

Miami vs. Texas A&M line movement

This is a sharp line thus far, with no movement off the opening line of -3.5, and most of the best sports betting sites are charging the standard -110 juice on either side of the point spread. Sixty-one percent of the point spread wagers have backed Texas A&M, but oddsmakers likely know that Miami at +4 would be very heavily backed.

The total is also the same across the board at 51.5. But the Under is juiced as high as -114 and -115 at FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively, suggesting the first line move (if there is one) would be to 51 or lower.

📈 Miami vs. Texas A&M trends & betting notes: CFP Round 1

Check out all of our college football analysis and betting advice for bowl season.

• Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games against non-conference opponents at Kyle Field
• The favorite is 13-0 SU in the Aggies’ last 13 games at Kyle Field
• The Over is 8-1 in Miami’s last nine games as an underdog
• Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck posted a 12-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio against ranked opponents (at the time of their game) this season

📺 How to watch Miami vs. Texas A&M: 2025 College Football Playoff

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 20
• Kickoff: Noon ET
• Location: Kyle Field (College Station, Texas)
• TV: ABC/ESPN