Miami vs. Ole Miss Predictions for the Fiesta Bowl: Odds & Best Bet College Football Playoff
Last Updated: January 6, 2026 9:51 AM EST • 3 minute read X Social Google News Link
Miami and Ole Miss emerged victorious as lower seeds to clinch their spot in the College Football Playoff semifinal, and one will punch its ticket to the big game when they meet on Thursday. My Miami vs. Ole Miss predictions and early picks for the Fiesta Bowl expect a close, hard-fought game.
The Hurricanes have held steady as a 3.5-point betting favorite, and my college bowl game predictions break it all down. Kickoff from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz., is at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).
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🏈 Early Miami vs. Ole Miss prediction: College Football Playoff Semifinal
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Ole Miss +3.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
The loss of Lane Kiffin hasn't impacted the Rebels yet, and I don't think it will in the semifinal. Ole Miss has the No. 2-ranked offense and No. 1-ranked special teams by SP+, and Pete Golding's program is poised to keep this game close.
The Rebels have arguably the second-best QBs in the country in Trinidad Chambliss, and Miami's Carson Beck has been mediocre in the CFP.
Ole Miss has covered the spread in three straight, and its only loss this season came at the hands of Georgia, who the Rebs just beat in the CFP.
📊 Live Miami vs. Ole Miss odds: Fiesta Bowl
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Miami vs. Ole Miss opening odds
- Moneyline: Miami -180 | Ole Miss +150
- Spread: Miami -3.5 (-108) | Ole Miss +3.5 (-112)
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (-115) | Under 51.5 (-105)
Miami vs. Ole Miss line movement
With the uncertainty around Ole Miss's coaching staff ahead of the semifinal with Miami, I expect the public to be all in on the Hurricanes.
Plus, Miami is a bigger brand name and just toppled the defending national champions. So while I like Ole Miss +3.5, it could be worth waiting to be the Rebels. I wouldn't be surprised to see our best college football betting sites list Miami -5.5 by Thursday night.
📈 Miami vs. Ole Miss trends & betting notes: CFP Semifinal
Check out all of our college football analysis and betting advice for bowl season.
- Ole Miss is 9-5 ATS this season and 4-1 against ranked teams
- Miami is also 9-5 ATS, but 6-0 against ranked teams
- The Hurricanes are 9-5 betting the Under, having hit it in three straight
- The Rebels are 7-7 betting the Over
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📺 How to watch Miami vs. Ole Miss: Fiesta Bowl
- Date: Thursday, Jan. 8
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
- TV: ESPN
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