Miami vs. Indiana Odds Movement for CFP National Championship: Spread, Moneyline, Total

Indiana opened as the betting favorite to beat Miami in the CFP National Championship, which kicks off tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN), and the latest Miami vs. Indiana odds movement has only reinforced that widespread support in the No. 1 seed.

The Hoosiers are favored by as many as 8.5 points entering the national championship tonight, though they've seen their price fall back down to -7.5 at most shops in the hours ahead of kickoff. That signals some buyback on the underdog Hurricanes, who will play "host" from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.

🏈 Live Miami vs. Indiana odds: 2026 CFP National Championship

See the latest college football odds and our college football picks for the CFP National Championship.

📈 Miami vs. Indiana odds movement

Here's a look at how the odds have moved at FanDuel - one of the best college football betting sites for the national championship - over the last 10 days:  

If you haven't paid attention to the betting markets over the last 10 days, you'd be forgiven for thinking not a whole lot has happened: Indiana opened as a 7.5-point betting favorite after the semifinals, and that's where the market sits a few hours before kickoff.

It's been an adventure between those two mile markers, though, with the Hoosiers drawing virtually one-way action throughout last week to move to as short as -9.5 at FanDuel with a consensus price at -8.5 everywhere else. The moneyline odds also touched as short as -360, implying a 78.26% chance of an Indiana victory.

That's when the market bounced back toward Miami, which is now trading as a 7.5-point underdog once again with its current moneyline price of +260 - representing a 27.78% probability for a win - just a tick longer than its opening odds of +250.

The total has seen a slow and steady decline over the last 10 days but only by a single point. Both of these teams soared past the total in the semifinals after falling short of the number in the quarterfinals.

🤔 Should you bet now or wait?

See all of our college football analysis and expert predictions the CFP National Championship.

If you like the Hurricanes to cover the spread tonight, you've likely missed your chance to get the best possible number - but I wouldn't wait much longer to jump in.

At this point, the market has clearly established that Indiana is at least a touchdown better than Miami but not by 10 points, as we saw a swift buyback once the spread touched 9.5 and continued support for the underdogs even at 8.5, which is where this game sat all week. That tells me we won't see the game cross 8 before kickoff.

That said, I could see a scenario in which we get a run of money on Miami +7.5 in the hours before kickoff for those waiting until the last possible minute to see how high it goes (especially after missing out earlier in the week). So if you like the 'Canes, take the extra half-point now instead of settling on +7 because you waited too long.

And if you like the Hoosiers tonight? There's little harm in waiting at this point to see if we do reach 7 flat, which would be a more palatable ticket than laying the half-point, too. But let's be real: Indiana has won both of its playoff games in truly blowout fashion. If the Hoosiers win tonight, you'll likely be glad you bought in at whatever price point.

📺 How to watch Miami vs. Indiana: CFP National Championship

• Date: Monday, Jan. 19
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
• TV: ESPN