Miami vs. Florida State Prediction: Early Picks for College Football Week 6
Our college football predictions for Week 6 continue with my Miami vs. Florida State prediction, which likes the Hurricanes to cover the 4.5-point spread as a road favorite.
Saturday's kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla.
My college football picks expect Miami to hand the Seminoles their second straight loss after last week's defeat to Virginia.
🏈 Early Miami vs. Florida State prediction & best bet
Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football predictions for Week 6.
🌴 Miami -4.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This game was supposed to feature the two top teams in the ACC, but Florida State reverted to looking like the 2-10 team from last season when it fell to Virginia, 46-38, in a Week 4 overtime loss.
While the Hoos' field storming was the talk following the loss, Seminoles' fans should be worried about a lot more than losing to the Cavaliers. Clearly, Norvell's team has issues on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
With a banged-up offensive line, Tony Elliott's team ran for over 200 yards and allowed Chandler Morris to get hit just twice ... that spells trouble against a Mario Cristobal team known for its offensive line.
Led by Francis Mauigoa, the Hurricanes' O-line has allowed Carson Beck to be pressured fewer than five times per game while allowing just three sacks. With Miami having several talented playmakers, including freshman phenom Malachi Toney and ascending running back Mark Fletcher Jr., the O-line should be the difference on offense.
And on defense, it's Miami's pass rush that can change this game. Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor are tied for the fifth-most pressures in the Power Four (19), and Mesidor is No. 2 in the P4 in pass rush win rate (30.7%) with Bain being No. 4 (28.9%). Tommy Castellanos could be running for his life.
The Hurricanes are 3-0 ATS against FBS opponents this year, and if they can make it 4-0, a $10 bet at Caesars pays a $9.09 profit.
📊 Miami vs. Florida State odds: Week 6
Latest college football odds updated live in real time.
📈 Miami vs. Florida State opening odds
- Moneyline: Miami -210 | Florida State +175
- Spread: Miami -6.5 (-110) | Florida State +6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 (-110) | Under 55.5 (-110)
💡 Miami vs. Florida State odds analysis
With Florida State coming off that devastating loss to Virginia, Miami opened favored as many as 6.5 points at our best college football betting sites. However, the line has quickly come down, with the Hurricanes now being offered at -4.5. While I'd love to see if the line will drop further, I'm more than comfortable betting Miami as a 4.5-point favorite.
I don't think it's worth risking this line coming back up, especially when I'm expecting the Hurricanes to win by at least six. The game total has seen less movement, and I like the Under with it sitting at 54.5, which I could see ticking down to 52.5 by Saturday night.
How to watch Miami vs. Florida State
- When: Saturday, Oct. 4
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Doak Campbell Stadium (Tallahassee, Fla.)
- TV: ABC
💡 College football Week 6 predictions
- Kentucky vs. Georgia prediction
- Air Force vs. Navy prediction
- Wisconsin vs. Michigan prediction
- Texas vs. Florida prediction
- Miami vs. Florida State prediction
- Penn State vs. UCLA prediction
- Boise State vs. Notre Dame prediction
- Vanderbilt vs. Alabama prediction
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