Miami vs. Florida State Prediction Tonight: Latest CFB Week 6 Odds, Expert Picks
One of the fiercest in-state rivalries in college football kicks off tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET from Doak Campbell Stadium on ABC, and I break down the ACC heavyweight matchup with my Miami vs. Florida State prediction.
Miami is a 4.5-point betting favorite on the road across the market, but my college football picks are buying low on the Seminoles after last week’s upset loss at Virginia.
Despite expecting Florida State to cover, I am adding a play on Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck to hit on at least one chunk play to my college football predictions for Week 6.
🏈 Miami vs. Florida State prediction today
College football expert picks for Week 6; confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale.
- Game pick: Florida State +4.5 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 53.5 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop bet: Carson Beck longest pass completion Over 41.5 yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
💡 College football expert picks today
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- College football player props Week 6
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- College football anytime touchdown scorer predictions Week 6
✅ Miami vs. Florida State expert pick
Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.
🪓 Florida State +4.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Oddsmakers are clearly buying more into Florida State as a legitimate ACC title contender than they were in the offseason when this line was as high as Miami -7.5. I would have likely backed the Seminoles regardless of last week’s result, given that it took until October for Miami to play its first road game.
This is a great spot to back Florida State with the general public likely down on it for losing to Virginia last week, but the fact remains that the Seminoles controlled that game in many aspects, as evidenced by their 65% postgame win expectancy.
This is a strength vs. strength matchup pitting the elite running ability of Seminoles quarterback Thomas Castellanos against a Hurricanes defense that has allowed 10 net rushing yards to quarterbacks through the first four games. I give the edge to Florida State in that regard, given that it ranks first nationally in Line Yards, while Miami has missed 32 tackles in its last two games.
I am laying my $10 wager down at DraftKings, the only one of the best sports betting sites where one can back the Seminoles at better than -110 juice and 52.38% implied odds. At -108, a Seminoles cover would net $9.26 in profits.
💰 Miami vs. Florida State player prop bet
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Carson Beck longest pass completion Over 41.5 yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Carson Beck has finished just one of four games this season, with his longest pass completion being longer than 40 yards. But this is a great opportunity to buy low against a Seminoles defense that faced 48 rushes against a methodical Virginia offense last week, with only one pass play going longer than 21 yards.
Florida State predominantly plays a quarters zone defense on dropbacks. Against that coverage, Beck and Miami have generated explosive plays on nearly one-fourth of their passing attempts while having success (as defined by the Success Rate metric) on three of every four throws.
bet365 is one of the only best sports betting apps offering a longest pass completion market. At a price of -115 and 53.49% implied odds, a $10 winning wager would net $8.70 in profits.
Our Brenden Schaeffer looks at three other players with his Miami vs. Florida State player props for tonight's showdown.
📊 Miami vs. Florida State odds today
Latest college football odds updated live in real time.
📺 How to watch Miami vs. Florida State: Week 6
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 4
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Doak Campbell Stadium (Tallahassee, Fla.)
- TV: ABC
Most bet college football markets today (BetMGM)
| Item | Most Bet Games (Tickets) | Most Bet Spreads (Tickets) | Most Bet Spreads (Handle) | Most Bet Totals (Tickets) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanderbilt at Alabama | Texas -5.5 | Texas -5.5 | Vanderbilt at Alabama Over 56.5 |
| 2 | Iowa State at Cincinnati U | Vanderbilt +11.5 | Alabama -11.5 | Miami Florida at Florida State Over 53.5 |
| 3 | Texas at Florida | Miami Florida -4.5 | Cincinnati U -1 | Wisconsin at Michigan Over 43.5 |
| 4 | Miami Florida at Florida State | Iowa State +1 | Notre Dame -21 | Boise State at Notre Dame Over 62.5 |
| 5 | Wisconsin at Michigan | Michigan -17.5 | Miami Florida -4.5 | Texas at Florida Under 45.5 |
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