Miami vs. Florida State Player Props Tonight: Hurricanes to Contain Castellanos
My best Miami vs. Florida State player props lean into Miami’s outstanding run defense to stymie the most prolific rushing attack in college football. Our college football picks for tonight's game include fades of two prominent rushers in the Florida State offense.
We keep our college football predictions for Week 6 rolling with an anytime TD scorer prop on a Miami running back whose nose for the end zone outclasses the implied probability of his odds to score.
The action kicks off from Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla., at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Miami is a 4.5-point favorite, though our Mike Spector has FSU covering in his Miami vs. Florida State prediction.
🏈 Miami vs. Florida State player props today
College football player prop bets for Week 6; odds subject to change.
- Tommy Castellanos Under 42.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Gavin Sawchuk Under 47.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- CharMar Brown anytime TD scorer (+120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
💡 College football expert picks today
- College football picks against the spread Week 6
- College football player props Week 6
- College football upsets picks Week 6
- College football best bets Week 6
- College football moneyline parlay Week 6
- College football anytime touchdown scorer predictions Week 6
💰 Best Miami vs. Florida State player prop picks
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬇️ Tommy Castellanos Under 42.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Logging 328.7 yards per game on the ground, Florida State boasts the most prolific rushing attack in the nation. But this Miami run defense (71 yards per game, fourth in FBS) is no joke. That includes containment against mobile quarterbacks like Tommy Castellanos.
USF’s Byrum Brown has some wiggle, boasting 43-plus rushing yard outputs in two of his three FBS games this year. But against the Hurricanes, he was bottled up: 2 rushing yards on 13 attempts. The most a QB has mustered in a game against Miami this year is 16 rushing yards.
Miami’s defensive pressure averages three sacks per game, which is relevant considering sacks count against QB rushing yards in college football. Castellanos has breezed past 42.5 rushing yards in each of his FBS games this season, but I don’t see it happening against Miami.
FanDuel offers this line at 42.5 rushing yards with -114 odds on Under. The implied probability at those odds is 53.27%. A winning $10 wager on this prop would profit $8.77.
⬇️ Gavin Sawchuk Under 47.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Even the running backs for Florida State could struggle to meet expectations in this matchup, as rushers are averaging just 2.5 YPC against the Hurricanes' run defense this season.
Oklahoma transfer Gavin Sawchuk is emerging as Florida State’s leading rusher, but he’s only cleared this line in two of four games. He’s averaging 4.4 YPC across his two games against power conference defenses.
If FSU is forced to chase this game (Miami is favored by 4.5 points), I don’t anticipate Sawchuk to see the volume necessary to clear this rushing line.
Our best sports betting sites list this prop at 47.5 yards, with FanDuel offering the best odds at -114. The implied probability at those odds is 53.27%. A winning $10 wager on this prop would profit $8.77.
🔥 CharMar Brown anytime TD scorer (+120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In his first year in Miami, CharMar Brown is the Hurricanes’ second-leading rusher while tallying five total touchdowns (tied for the team high). Virginia scored four rushing touchdowns against FSU last weekend.
Brown has scored at least one touchdown in all four games played this season, rendering his anytime TD scorer odds of +120 from FanDuel as a strong value relative to the odds between -106 and -135 that we’re seeing on the prop from the rest of our best sports betting apps.
FanDuel’s odds of +120 come with an implied probability of 45.45%. A winning $10 wager on this prop would profit $12.00.
📊 Miami vs. Florida State odds today
Latest college football odds updated live in real time.
📺 How to watch Miami vs. Florida State
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 4
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Doak Campbell Stadium (Tallahassee, Fla.)
- TV: ABC
Most bet college football markets today (BetMGM)
| Item | Most Bet Games (Tickets) | Most Bet Spreads (Tickets) | Most Bet Spreads (Handle) | Most Bet Totals (Tickets) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanderbilt at Alabama | Texas -5.5 | Texas -5.5 | Vanderbilt at Alabama Over 56.5 |
| 2 | Iowa State at Cincinnati U | Vanderbilt +11.5 | Alabama -11.5 | Miami Florida at Florida State Over 53.5 |
| 3 | Texas at Florida | Miami Florida -4.5 | Cincinnati U -1 | Wisconsin at Michigan Over 43.5 |
| 4 | Miami Florida at Florida State | Iowa State +1 | Notre Dame -21 | Boise State at Notre Dame Over 62.5 |
| 5 | Wisconsin at Michigan | Michigan -17.5 | Miami Florida -4.5 | Texas at Florida Under 45.5 |
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