Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan Prediction & Odds: MAC Championship Betting Preview
This year's MAC Championship pits a program playing in its third straight conference title game against one that hasn't won a conference crown in nearly a decade, and my Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan prediction expects the Broncos to be on top of the MAC for the first time since 2016.
Despite losing to the RedHawks in the regular season, Western Michigan is a 1.5-point betting favorite for Saturday's noon ET kickoff (ESPN) from Ford Field in Detroit, and my college football conference championship predictions are backing the Broncos to get revenge.
Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan predictions: MAC Championship
💵 Best Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan bets
Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan best bet & score prediction
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Western Michigan -1.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Don't let the fact that Miami (OH) beat Western Michigan by nine in the regular season stop you from believing in Lance Taylor's program. The circumstances of this matchup are very different this time around, and not just because the RedHawks won't have home-field advantage.
When Miami (OH) defeated WMU on Oct. 25, Dequan Finn threw for 260 yards, ran for 52 yards, and combined for two touchdowns. However, the former MAC MVP is no longer with Chuck Martin's program, and freshman Thomas Gotkowski will be making just his third career start against a WMU defense that's among the best in the MAC.
While Gotkowski started the RedHawks' last two games, both wins, they came against Buffalo and Ball State, two programs that went a combined 9-15 this season with defenses ranked outside the top 70 by SP+. Meanwhile, the Broncos have one of the best defenses in the Group of Six - ranked No. 46 nationally by SP+, allowing the 17th-fewest yards per game in the country (302.3), and giving up the 18th-fewest PPG in the country (18.7).
Bucking Broncos run wild
On the flip side of this matchup, Western Michigan's physical run-first approach with QB Broc Lowry and running back Jalen Buckley should be able to do enough to put a dent in a Miami (OH) defense that's No. 87 in EPA per rush.
While the RedHawks have allowed just 118.1 rushing yards per game this season, that number is skewed by several strong performances against lesser programs. In Miami (OH)'s last three matchups with bowl-eligible teams (WMU, Ohio, Toledo), Bill Brechin's unit has allowed 141.3 rushing yards per game.
If Lowry and Buckley can wear down the RedHawks' defense, Miami (OH)'s offense will struggle to keep pace with Gotkowski behind center. WMU has covered in two of its last three, and another cover (53.49% probability) will lead to an $8.70 profit on a $10 bet.
Score prediction: Western Michigan 23, Miami (OH) 20
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Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan matchup to watch
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Broc Lowry vs. Miami (OH) front seven
After transferring from Indiana and spending last season as Hayden Wolff's backup, Lowry has hit the ground running, literally, in his first season as Taylor's starting QB. Lowry's legs have been an X-factor in the Broncos' run to the MAC Championship, and you can expect a heavy dose of carries for the QB against Miami (OH).
Lowry is the Broncos' leader in rushing attempts (174) and rushing yards (875), and went for 82 on 20 carries the last time he played the RedHawks. The redshirt sophomore hasn't had fewer than 13 attempts against a MAC opponent this season, averaging 17.1 carries for 87.2 rushing yards per game in conference play.
With Miami (OH) proving to be susceptible against the run, Lowry is poised for close to 20 carries in the MAC Championship. If he can top 81.5 rushing yards for the eighth straight game, a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit.
Best prop bet: Broc Lowry Over 81.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)
Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan odds
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Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan betting trends
| Miami (OH) | Statistic | Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | W-L record | 8-4 |
| 8-4 | ATS record | 8-3-1 |
| 7-5 | O/U record | 6-6 |
| 5.7 | Yards per play | 5.0 |
| 4.9 | Yards allowed per play | 5.0 |
| +0.7 | Turnover margin | +0.5 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
| W, 45-24 vs. Ball State | Previous result | W, 31-21 vs. Eastern Michigan |
Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan weather
This game will be played indoors at Ford Field in Detroit, so the weather won't be a factor for Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan during Saturday's MAC Championship.
How to watch Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan: MAC Championship
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Location: Ford Field (Detroit)
- TV: ESPN
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