Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan Player Props: MAC Championship Prop Picks

One program is playing in its third straight MAC Championship, while the other is here for the first time in nearly a decade, and our Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan player props expect the Broncos to run wild as they attempt to win their first MAC title under Lance Taylor.

As part of my college football conference championship predictions, my MAC Championship player props are backing WMU's run game and defense to shine. Western Michigan is a 1.5-point betting favorite against Miami (OH) for Saturday's MAC Championship from Ford Field in Detroit at noon ET (ESPN). 

Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan player prop bets

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Best Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan player prop picks

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Broc Lowry player prop: Over 81.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The biggest reason why Western Michigan is playing for its first MAC Championship since 2016 is because of Broc Lowry's breakout sophomore season. The first-year starter has been the engine of the Broncos' offense, with his legs being an X-factor in MAC play. 

Lowry leads WMU in rushing attempts (174) and rushing yards (875), and he's seen even more work as a runner since MAC play began. Against MAC opponents, the Indiana transfer is averaging 17.1 carries for 87.2 rushing yards per game. He ranks No. 6 in the country among QBs in rushing yards after contact (556) and No. 5 in 15-plus-yard runs (11). 

That physicality and explosiveness should help him buck on by a RedHawks' defense that's No. 87 in EPA per rush. If Lowry can run for Over 81.5 yards for the eighth straight game (53.27% probability), a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit.

This is my favorite MAC Championship player prop in my Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan prediction.

Thomas Gotkowski player prop: Under 174.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐

Freshman QB Thomas Gotkowski wasn't supposed to be starting this game for Chuck Martin. A few weeks ago, he was Miami (OH)'s third-string QB who had never thrown a pass at the college level, with the only extended action he'd ever seen coming in September against an FCS program (Lindenwood). Now, he's QB1 for the RedHawks in the MAC Championship. 

That's because Dequan Finn, the QB who beat WMU for Miami (OH) earlier this season, left the program, and backup Henry Hesson struggled to fill his shoes. While Gotkowski had solid showings in his two starts leading up to this game, they came against Buffalo and Ball State, programs that rank outside the top 70 in defensive SP+. And even still, he had an adjusted completion rate below 60% in both games.

Taking on a WMU defense that's led by Nadame Tucker, who's No. 2 in the country in sacks (12), is going to shock Gotkowski. The Broncos rank No. 39 in the nation in EPA per dropback on defense and No. 46 in defensive SP+. If WMU can hold Gotkowski below 175 passing yards, a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit. 

Best Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan touchdown scorer prediction

Jalen Buckley TD pick: Anytime TD (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

One of the most consistent running backs in the MAC over the last three seasons, Jalen Buckley got off to a slow start this season. The junior scored just two touchdowns and had only three runs of 10-plus yards over his first seven games of the season, while averaging 12.6 carries for 40.4 rushing yards per game.

However, he snapped back to his old ways down the stretch and helped carry the Broncos to the MAC Championship. In Buckley's last four outings, he's averaged 16 carries for 88.2 yards with 10 runs of 10-plus yards and five touchdowns. Against a Miami (OH) defense that's struggled to stop the run at times, Buckley should continue to see plenty of work in WMU's run-first offense.

Buckley has scored at least one touchdown in four straight games and five of his last six. If he finds the end zone in the MAC Championship against Miami (OH), a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit.

Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan anytime touchdown scorer odds

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How to watch Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan: MAC Championship

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
• Kickoff: Noon ET
• Location: Ford Field (Detroit)
• TV: ESPN