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Jason Candle head coach of the Toledo Rockets looks on as we share our best Miami vs. Toledo prediction.
Jason Candle head coach of the Toledo Rockets looks on in the second quarter of the MAC Championship game against the Ohio Bobcats at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images via AFP.

We're anticipating a measured pace in the MAC Championship game as the Miami (OH) RedHawks face the Toledo Rockets for conference supremacy, and we discuss our Miami (OH) vs. Toledo prediction based on the best college football odds at our best college football betting sites.

As Miami (OH) (10-2) and Toledo (11-1) face off in the MAC Championship Game in Detroit, the Redhawks aim to avenge their regular-season defeat to the Rockets.

Given their previous match where they totaled only 38 points, will Saturday's conference title game produce more scoring?

To complement our college football best bets and Week 14 player props, here is our best Miami (OH) vs. Toledo prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Miami (OH) vs. Toledo prediction: MAC Championship

Under 44 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Games involving Toledo went 7-5 on Overs while games involving Miami landed at 5-7 on Overs for the season. The regular-season matchup between the Redhawks and Rockets was a 21-17 bout that finished below the 44-point total set for the MAC title game.

Although this number feels low at first glance, Miami’s combination of solid defense and below-average offense has led to low scores. The Redhawks rank 34th in adjusted defensive efficiency with an offensive efficiency that ranks 89th in the nation.

Miami’s measured pace is another factor that makes this team such a strong candidate for its games to trend Under. Miami ranks 130th out of 133 FBS teams in offensive tempo, using up to 30.5 seconds per play offensively.

The Rockets don’t necessarily push the pace, either, averaging 26.1 seconds per play (68th in FBS). Neither offense is particularly explosive or efficient, with Toledo ranking outside the top 40 FBS teams in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Miami’s last three games have finished with 33 or fewer total points. Both defenses rank more favorably in adjusted efficiency than the opposing offense in this matchup. Factor in the tendency for both offenses to run slow tempo offensively, you get the picture of a title game that will value ball control and field position in a low-scoring environment.


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Miami (OH) vs. Toledo best odds

DraftKings (-110)

Under 44Under 43.5Under 44Under 44Under 44

The majority of our best sports betting apps list the total at 44 points, with FanDuel being the exception at 43.5. For Under bettors, that shop should be avoided due to the lesser value on that number.

We would play this Under down to 43 points as a three-star recommendation at one of our top college football betting sites.

Miami (OH) vs. Toledo odds

Miami (OH) vs. Toledo odds analysis

Toledo opened as a 9-point favorite and is down to between -7.5 and -8 across our best sports betting sites. At this time, 56% of wagers have come in on Miami.

The total opened at 43.5 and has remained at that number at FanDuel while increasing to 44 at the rest of our best sportsbooks. So far, 55% of wagers have come in on the Over.

Miami (OH) vs. Toledo game info

  • When: Saturday, Dec. 2 at noon ET
  • Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: Indoors

Miami-Toledo prediction made Thursday at 3:45 p.m. ET.

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