Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State Predictions & Odds | 2025 Arizona Bowl Best Bet & TD Pick
Given the key players Chuck Martin's team will be without for the Arizona Bowl, my Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State predictions are taking the Bulldogs to drop it like it's hot.
Fresno State is a 5.5-point betting favorite for today's 4:30 p.m. ET (The CW Network) Arizona Bowl from Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Ariz., in the 13th bowl game featured in our college football predictions this week.
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🏈 Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State predictions: 2025 Arizona Bowl
See the latest college football odds and our college football picks for every bowl game.
| Best bets | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Fresno State -5.5 | -110 via Caesars | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Rayshon Luke anytime TD | -105 via bet365 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State best bet
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Fresno State -5.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
Miami (OH) had its starting QB, Dequan Finn, leave the program mid-season and proceeded to average eight PPG in its final two games against bowl-eligible teams. Now Martin's squad loses its two best players (Adam Trick, Kam Perry) before playing a Fresno State team that's covered in three of its last four.
The Bulldogs have one of the best defenses in the Group of Six, ranked No. 45 in the nation by SP+, and should shut down a RedHawks offense with zero identity.
As long as the Bulldogs lean on their running backs, they should control this game.
Score prediction: Fresno State 20, Miami (OH) 13
🙌 Best Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State touchdown pick: Arizona Bowl
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Rayshon Luke, RB, Fresno State: Anytime TD (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
You don't get the nickname "Speedy" by not scoring touchdowns. Rayshon Luke is the most dynamic player taking the field in the Arizona Bowl, and the young back is going to be running wild and free against a Miami (OH) defense missing its star defender.
Luke is the best big-play threat for the Bulldogs and leads the team in yards from scrimmage (916) and touchdowns (8).
And while Luke might not have the same overall rushing production as some of the top backs in college football, he ranks 19th in the country in breakaway rate (47.9%). That burst can be an X-factor against the RedHawks' defense.
📝 Top NFL draft prospects for Arizona Bowl
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| Player | Position | Key stats | NFL draft grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al'zillion Hamilton, Fresno State | CB | Allowing 55.6 NFL QB rating in coverage | Round 6-UDFA |
| Eli Blakey, Miami (OH) | SAF | Allowing 40.8 NFL QB rating in coverage | Round 6-UDFA |
| Silas Walters, Miami (OH) | SAF | 6 forced incompletions, 3 INTs | Round 6-UDFA |
| Jackson Kuwatch, Miami (OH) | LB | 101 tackles, 9.5 TFLs | UDFA |
| Rayshon Luke, Fresno State | RB | 916 scrimmage yards, 8 TDs | UDFA |
| Jordan Brunson, Miami (OH) | RB | 724 rushing yards, 4 TDs | UDFA |
📊 Live Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State odds: Arizona Bowl
Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State opening odds
- Moneyline: Miami (OH) +140 | Fresno State -165
- Spread: Miami (OH) +3.5 (-110) | Fresno State -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110)
📈 Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State betting trends
| Miami (OH) | Statistic | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| 7-6 | W-L record | 8-4 |
| 7-6 | ATS record | 6-6 |
| 8-5 | O/U record | 5-7 |
| 5.5 | Yards per play | 5.3 |
| 4.9 | Yards allowed per play | 4.7 |
| +0.5 | Turnover margin | +0.3 |
| 2-3 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
| L, 23-13 vs. Western Michigan | Previous result | W, 41-14 vs. San Jose State |
📺 How to watch Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State: Arizona Bowl
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 27
- Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Ariz.)
- TV: The CW Network
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