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Miami (Ohio) Redhawks running back Keyon Mozee runs against the Northwestern Wildcats as we offer our Miami (OH) vs. Ball State prediction.
Miami (Ohio) Redhawks running back Keyon Mozee runs against the Northwestern Wildcats. Photo by David Banks via Imagn Images

The Miami (OH) Redhawks enter Tuesday's away contest against the Ball State Cardinals as double-digit favorites. They've won three in a row with a 24-point average margin of victory. 

Meanwhile, the Cardinals have lost six of their last seven games, including four straight at Scheumann Stadium in Muncie, Ind. The game kicks off at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN).

You can see why the Redhawks are such prohibitive road favorites. The line has moved even more in the Redhawks' favor in the last 24 hours, with the line going from -10.5 to -11.5 or -12 at our best college football betting sites

Our Miami (OH) vs. Ball State prediction agrees with the double-digit spread, and we back the visitors to cover. It's part of our college football Week 11 predictions, which includes Tuesday's Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan prediction

Best Miami (OH) vs. Ball State picks

College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Miami (OH) -10.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Ball State ⭐⭐⭐
  • My best bet: Keyon Mozee Over 101.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Miami (OH) vs. Ball State against the spread prediction: Week 11

Miami (OH) to cover the spread: -10.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Miami (OH) vs. Ball State opening odds:

  • Miami (OH): -10.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Ball State: +10.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

Weather forces offenses to play uncomfortably

Both of these teams prefer the pass over the run. The Redhawks rank 60th in the nation with 227.5 passing yards per game, while the Cardinals rank 70th with 217.6. Neither team ranks in the top 90 in the country in rushing yards per game. Yet, with rainy and windy conditions expected for Tuesday night, it’s likely that the winner of this game will be the one who figures out how best to gain an advantage in the ground game.

While the Redhawks have been far from great on the ground, they are better equipped for a run-heavy game. Their rush offense is slightly better, averaging 127.8 yards per game, but their defense will make the difference. They’re allowing 153.5 rushing yards per game, compared to 195 for Ball State.

If weather doesn't turn out to be a factor, and both teams can throw, the Redhawks still have the advantage. They’re allowing just 183.4 passing yards per game, the 23rd-best mark in the country. Meanwhile, the Cardinals allow 307.0 passing yards per game, tied for fourth-worst in the nation.

The spread has grown to 11.5 or 12 at four of our best sports betting apps, but it’s stayed at 10.5 at BetMGM. Right now, 60% of bettors are backing the Cardinals, so the higher spreads may actually drop to where BetMGM is before long. 

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Miami (OH) vs. Ball State best bet

Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Keyon Mozee Over 101.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Mozee has rushed for at least 100 yards in three consecutive games and four of his last five. He’s also yet to rush for fewer than 100 yards in a game that the Redhawks won.

I’ve already explained why I think that the Redhawks will win this game, so based on his performances this season, Mozee should be a lock for 100 yards. And when you account for the weather, there will likely be more rushing opportunities for Mozee than in previous weeks. Against a porous run defense allowing 6.0 yards per carry, the fifth-most in the nation, it’s hard to see how he misses this total.

Only FanDuel is offering this prop right now, but at 101.5 for this price, there’s no reason to wait for other sportsbooks to post totals. 

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

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Miami (OH) vs. Ball State odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Miami (OH) vs. Ball State game info

  • When: Tuesday, Nov. 5
  • Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: Scheumann Stadium (Muncie, Ind.)
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 66 degrees, 60% chance of precipitation, wind 16 mph S
  • Favorite: Miami (OH) -10.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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