Memphis vs. NC State Predictions: 2025 Gasparilla Bowl Odds, Picks & Best Bet
With the underdog in the Gasparilla Bowl backsliding over the last two months of the season, my Memphis vs. NC State predictions are siding with the favorite, despite its star running back hitting the transfer portal.
NC State is a 3.5-point betting favorite for today's Gasparilla Bowl at 2:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., in the sixth of 10 college football bowl games this week.
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🏈 Memphis vs. NC State prediction: 2025 Gasparilla Bowl
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| Gasparilla Bowl predictions | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| NC State -3.5 | -108 (DraftKings) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Jayden "Duke" Scott 2+ TDs | +550 (FanDuel) | ⭐⭐⭐ |
NC State -3.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NC State has won three of its last four, while Memphis has lost three straight, and head coach Ryan Silverfield left for Arkansas.
The Tigers' collapse included going 2-4 ATS down the stretch after their offense could no longer make up for their defensive woes. With Silverfield gone and several key players injured or transferring, an NC State team averaging 30.2 PPG should take advantage.
The Wolfpack's young offense has come alive as of late thanks to QB CJ Bailey, who I expect to dice up a Memphis defense that's allowed 28.3 PPG since mid-season.
Score prediction: NC State 34, Memphis 29
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🙌 Best Memphis vs. NC State TD pick: Gasparilla Bowl
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Jayden "Duke" Scott, RB, NC State: 2+ TDs (+550) ⭐⭐⭐
No Hollywood Smothers? No problem. It's Duke season, baby. Freshman Jayden "Duke" Scott is set to be NC State's bell cow in the Gasparilla Bowl after Smothers entered the transfer portal.
And while the Wolfpack losing their leading rusher is a tough blow, Scott proved he's ready to be the top back when filling in for Smothers throughout the season.
Smother's missed NC State's upset win over Georgia Tech in November, and in his absence, Scott exploded for 196 yards while forcing 11 missed tackles. In the two games that he saw double-digit carries this season, the freshman averaged 8.4 yards per carry.
His big-play ability can help expose a Memphis defense that's ranked outside the top 70 by SP+ and has given up 20 rushing TDs in 12 games.
💰️ Gasparilla Bowl TD SGP (+374)
There's also a plus-money TD bet for the Gasparilla Bowl with a slightly higher probability than Scott scoring twice that I really like for today. I'm parlaying Scott to score one TD (-115) with an anytime TD bet for NC State star tight end Justin Joly at +374 odds via FanDuel. Joly is one of the best tight ends in the country and has scored four TDs in his last four games.
📝 Top NFL draft prospects for Gasparilla Bowl
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| Player | Position | Key stats | NFL draft grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Joly, NC State | TE | Fourth-most first down catches in the country among TEs (27) | Round 3-4 |
| Chris Adams, Memphis | OL | 26 pressures allowed | Round 4-6 |
| Brandon Cleveland, NC State | NT | 35 tackles, 6.5 TFLs | Round 5-7 |
| Devon Marshall, NC State | CB | Leads country in forced incompletions (16) | Round 5-7 |
| Kamari Wilson, Memphis | SAF | 6.5 TFLs, 2 INTs | Round 6-UDFA |
📊 Live Memphis vs. NC State odds: Gasparilla Bowl
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Memphis vs. NC State opening odds
- Moneyline: Memphis +170 | NC State -205
- Spread: Memphis +5.5 (-110) | NC State -5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 58.5 (-110) | Under 58.5 (-110)
📈 Memphis vs. NC State betting trends
| Memphis | Statistic | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | W-L record | 7-5 |
| 8-4 | ATS record | 6-6 |
| 6-6 | O/U record | 7-5 |
| 6.2 | Yards per play | 6.1 |
| 5.5 | Yards allowed per play | 6.2 |
| +0.8 | Turnover margin | +0.1 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
| L, 28-17 vs. Navy | Previous result | W, 42-19 vs. North Carolina |
📺 How to watch Memphis vs. NC State: Gasparilla Bowl
- Date: Friday, Dec. 19
- Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Fla.)
- TV: ESPN
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