MAC Best Bets Today: Expert ATS Predictions & Player Props for Wednesday

Week 12 MACtion wraps up with three games tonight, and my MAC best bets for Week 12 have you covered with a pick for each game. We started the week by going 1-1 yesterday, and were just two rushing yards away from a beautiful week-opening sweep.

My final three MACtion college football Week 12 predictions include taking the Under in what should be a sloppy-weather game and backing the most talented team in the conference to build on its dominant showing in last week's MACtion matchup.

🏈 MAC best bets & expert picks: Week 12

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 12 based on the latest college football odds.

📅 Week 12 MACtion schedule

MAC odds via DraftKings; all times ET.

🔮 My best MAC predictions this week

🦴 Northern Illinois -10.5 (-112) vs. UMass ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Not much needs to be said here. When your program is so bad that a team that just lost 42-3 on MACtion last week is a double-digit favorite in your stadium, there's nothing good happening for your football team. UMass is what everyone thought Kent State would be this season, with it looking increasingly unlikely that the Minutemen will win a game. This team is so bad that Kent State beat it 42-6, and the Golden Flashes entered the season with their win total set at 1.5.

This is UMass' first season back in the MAC, and Joe Harasymiak's first season at the helm, and all that newness with a lack of talent has led to a 0-9 start to the season (2-7 ATS). The Minutemen are ranked No. 136 out of 136 by SP+, have been outscored 173-53 in MAC play, and have lost only one FBS game this season by fewer than 18 points.

Meanwhile, Northern Illinois is having a down year under Thomas Hammock, but this team still has enough talent to chew on UMass. The Huskies have one of the MAC's most explosive playmakers in Telly Johnson Jr. and a defense led by Roy Williams that's ranked No. 67 by SP+. NIU should win by double digits, and if it does, a $10 bet pays an $8.93 profit.

Our Mike Spector makes the case for the other side with his Northern Illinois vs. UMass prediction.

🚀 Toledo -3.5 (-105) vs. Miami (OH) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This season hasn't gone the way Toledo head coach Jason Candle would have liked, with the Rockets viewed as the only MAC team with a shot at the College Football Playoff ahead of the season. Instead, Toledo dropped an early MAC game to a stingy Western Michigan defense, no-showed against Bowling Green, and lost on the road in non-conference play to Kentucky and Washington State.

However, despite being just 5-4, the Rockets' last two MAC matchups prove this is the most talented team in the conference. Toledo outscored Kent State and NIU 87-13, and the Rockets' defense is poised to give Miami (OH) hell in Oxford. While the RedHawks remain a potential MAC Championship contender, their offense was discombobulated last week against Ohio, and it's only going to get harder for Dequan Finn against his former team this week. However, our Isaiah Sirois thinks he'll find a way to get it done on the ground in his Toledo vs. Miami (OH) prediction.

Toledo's defense is among the best in recent Group of Six history, ranking No. 2 in EPA per pass and No. 11 in EPA per rush behind the play of safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, a potential first-round pick. With Miami (OH) unlikely to score much against a defense allowing just 14.6 PPG, Tucker Gleason, the best QB in the MAC, will likely only need to lead Toledo to a handful of points.

If the Rockets blast off on the road and cover for the seventh time in 11 games, a $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit.

⬇️ Buffalo vs. Central Michigan Under 43.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

What makes MACtion great is how often we see punts in empty stadiums in gross weather, and no game this week has as much potential to give us that as this matchup. Central Michigan is at home for this one at Kelly/Shorts Stadium in Mount Pleasant, Mich., and the forecast is calling for scattered flurries beginning Tuesday evening and continuing into Wednesday afternoon before showers are expected to begin.

A wet, snowy night in Michigan between two teams that love to run the football and play hard-nosed defense sounds like a recipe for an Under to me. One of these teams doesn't want to throw the ball - CMU ranks third-last in the MAC in passing yards per game (153.6) - and the other doesn't do it well, with Buffalo QB Ta'Quan Roberson having the 10th-most turnover-worthy plays in the country (16).

Both teams are ranked outside the top 115 on offense by SP+, but are ranked top 75 on defense. The Bulls also have the potential MAC Defensive Player of the Year in Khalil "Red" Murdock, who broke Khalil Mack's (a former Bull) NCAA record for forced fumbles in a career (17). 

With Murdock leading the way, Buffalo should hit a third straight Under in gross weather conditions on Wednesday. If this Under hits, a $10 bet pays a $9.52 profit.

💰 My best MAC player props this week

⬆️ Jordan Gant player prop: Over 97.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Is Akron good? No, not really, but head coach Joe Moorhead knows how to call plays and feed his most talented playmaker. And he's not going to shy away from leaning on his bell cow, Jordan Gant, with the Wagon Wheel on the line against Kent State.

Gant is second in the MAC in rushing yards after contact (560) and No. 1 in the conference in 15-plus-yard runs. That big play ability should help him zip by a Golden Flashes defense that's ranked No. 126 by SP+ and allows the second-most rushing yards per game in the MAC (190.0).

The Tennessee State transfer is coming off a 153-yard rushing performance in his MACtion debut last week, and has averaged 23.6 carries for 110 rushing yards per game over his last five MAC games. If he can cross 97.5 rushing yards this week, a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit. 

Our Isaiah Sirois makes his Kent State vs. Akron prediction, with eyes on a Ben Finley player prop.

⬆️ Parker Navarro player prop: Over 49.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

After leading Ohio to its first MAC Championship in decades last season, Timothee Chalamet's favorite QB has the Bobcats atop the conference standings this season following last week's MACtion win over Miami (OH). Against a Western Michigan defense that's one of the best in the conference, especially against the pass, Ohio will need to depend on Parker Navarro's legs to be the difference.

Our Mike Spector projects the Broncos to win in his Ohio vs. Western Michigan prediction because of their pass defense, which is why I expect Bobcats head coach Brian Smith to focus his game plan on his QB's running ability. Navarro is eighth in the conference in rushing yards (536), fifth in rushing yards after contact (473), and third in 10-plus-yard runs (24).

With Western Michigan giving up 148 rushing yards to a similarly talented Miami (OH) team a few weeks ago - 52 of which were from Finn, the RedHawks' QB - I think Ohio can find success utilizing Navarro's mobility. If Navarro goes Over 49.5 rushing yards for the seventh time in 10 games this season, a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit.