LSU vs. Alabama Prediction & Opening Odds for College Football Week 11

After the massive Brian Kelly firing, I’m here to make our LSU vs. Alabama prediction by diving into the opening odds as our early picks series continues.

Kickoff from Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) on Saturday. No. 4 Alabama is a 10.5-point betting favorite after opening as a 6.5-point favorite. Make sure to check out the rest of our college football Week 11 predictions so you don’t miss any winning plays, like the following pick against the spread.

🏈 Early LSU vs. Alabama prediction & betting preview

Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football picks for Week 11.

🐘 Alabama -10.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

The LSU Tigers parted ways with head coach Brian Kelly and offensive coordinator Joe Sloan heading into this game, leaving assistant head coach Frank Wilson as the interim.

Wilson then promoted run game coordinator Alex Atkins to serve as the play caller. Last year, Atkins worked as the offensive coordinator at Florida State, where the Seminoles ranked 133rd in yards per play (3.9).

Wilson and his interim staff will start with LSU’s toughest remaining matchup: a road trip to Alabama. I don’t think his chosen brain trust can get the job done with this roster.

LSU’s offense currently averages a sluggish 5.3 yards per play, ranking 79th. Alabama’s defense allows just 5.1 yards per play (37th) and 4.5 yards per play at home. LSU’s offensive line is generating an SEC-low 2.5 line yards and is allowing a havoc rate of 17.7%, the fourth-worst in the SEC.

The market is also skeptical of LSU, but it should probably be more skeptical. LSU is trading as a 10.5-point underdog after opening at 6.5. Jeff Sagarin’s ratings make Alabama a 13-point favorite. LSU is also at a 10-point disadvantage to Alabama in the FPI, which implies a wider spread than 10.5 with Alabama at home.

Back the Crimson Tide to cover -10.5 (-110), with an implied probability of 52.4% at BetMGM, to score a $9.09 profit on a $10 bet.

📊 Live LSU vs. Alabama odds: Week 11

See the latest college football odds for every game in Week 11.

🔢 LSU vs. Alabama opening odds

• Moneyline: LSU +320 | Alabama -425
• Spread: LSU +6.5 (-110) | Alabama -6.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 53.5 (-110) | Under 53.5 (-110)

↔️ LSU vs. Alabama line movement

The spread and moneyline for Saturday’s LSU vs. Alabama game have moved substantially toward the Tide. I suspect Alabama’s advantage will continue to tick up throughout the week, especially if any players check out of the program following Kelly’s firing.

The total, which opened at 53.5, has seen similarly substantial movement. The number has crashed to 49.5 at most of the best sports betting sites, with a few still hanging a 50. I don’t foresee as much movement on this market, but keep a close eye out for LSU’s injury report this week.

📈 LSU vs. Alabama trends & betting notes

• Alabama is 12-8-1 ATS under Kalen DeBoer, including 8-2 ATS as a home favorite
• Both sides are coming off a bye; LSU entered the bye with a blowout loss to Texas A&M, while Alabama entered with a comeback win over South Carolina
• Alabama is a breakeven 11-10 to the Over under DeBoer, including 5-5 to the Over as a home favorite
• The Under is 5-3 in LSU’s games this year and 13-8 dating back to last season

📺 How to watch LSU vs. Alabama

• Date: Saturday, Nov. 8
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, Ala.)
• TV: ABC