Louisville vs. UCF Picks Week 2 College Football: Can Cardinals Avoid 0-2 Start?

Top college football Week 2 picks for Louisville vs UCF on Sept 9.

Mike Spector

Last updated: September 14, 2022 11:57 AM EDT • 4 min read

Louisville plays a second straight road to open the 2022 college football season with a visit to UCF. We break down the matchup with our top Louisville-UCF picks and predictions.

Louisville is in need of a win after taking a 31-7 loss at Syracuse in Week 1. The Cardinals face a UCF Knights team that was afforded a much easier beginning to the season. The Knights rolled FCS member SC State 56-10 last week.

Here are our top picks for the college football Week 2 game between Louisville and UCF (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Louisville vs. UCF Game Info

Date/Time: Friday, Sept. 9, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Location: FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, FL
Weather: 87 degrees, 58% chance of precipitation, 10-mph SSE winds

Louisville vs. UCF Odds Analysis

UCF opened as a 6-point favorite but that has dipped to 5.5 by Friday morning despite 68% of the tickets and 63% of the handle backing the Knights.

The total has remained at a market consensus of 61.5 even with 79% of the tickets and cash being on the Over.

Louisville vs. UCF Picks

Louisville vs. UCF ATS Pick

Louisville +7 (-125) ★★★★

UCF's 46-point win over an FCS opponent did not tell us much about the Knights. Thus, the main question when breaking down this matchup is whether we should be down on Louisville after a 24-point conference loss, or are there points to be optimistic about the Cardinals? We believe more in the latter.

Syracuse's victory was the sixth consecutive win by the home team in the rivalry. However, the final score should have been much closer, as the Cardinals squandered several scoring opportunities. Louisville marched inside Syracuse's 40-yard line five times but only mustered one touchdown to show for it.

Lastly, Syracuse's coaching staff was entirely different from the staff that the Cardinals averaged 42.3 points against in three consecutive victories. Though it was just Louisville's second loss to Syracuse in nine meetings since joining the ACC in 2014, it could just be that the Cardinals were caught off guard by the new-look Orange.

For Cardinals backers, making this wager at DraftKings is a no-brainer as it is the only sportsbook offering the key number of seven points.

Louisville vs. UCF O/U Pick

Over 61.5 (-105) ★★★

In addition to Louisville not finishing drives, the three turnovers did not help its case either, so head coach Scott Satterfield will be preaching red-zone offense and taking care of the football this week.

Cardinals quarterback Malik Cunningham is one of the most dynamic playmakers in the country, so we would not expect him to replicate his 152-passing-yard and 34-rushing-yard performance this week.

UCF had big shoes to fill after quarterback Dillon Gabriel transferred to Oklahoma. However, through one week, Ole Miss transfer John Rhys Plumlee shook off the cobwebs (he played receiver the last two seasons) nicely after sitting behind Matt Corral most of his career.

Like Cunningham, Plumlee knows how to use his legs well, as he set the Ole Miss freshman rushing record with 1,023 yards in 2019. UCF head coach Guz Malzahn has always been known to run an up-tempo attack, so each team's quick-strike offense should get plenty of possessions in this game.

Louisville vs. UCF Prop Pick

Louisville +3.5 1st-Half Spread (-102) ★★

Given Louisville's much stiffer competition in Week 1, we expect it to be the sharper and more prepared team in the first 30 minutes. Look for Satterfield to stress physicality in establishing the running game first and foremost, allowing guard Caleb Chandler to pave running lanes. Chandler is the highest-graded offensive lineman at Louisville since Mekhi Becton.

Despite only scoring seven points last week, Louisville still averaged an impressive 6.2 yards per play. Cunningham will get loose early and often on the ground and remind people why he led all FBS quarterbacks with 20 rushing touchdowns a season ago.

The juice for this prop is much lower at FanDuel, whose -102 odds are much more appealing than DraftKings’ -115 for the same number.

Where to Bet on Louisville-UCF Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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Louisville-UCF picks made 9/6/2022 at 4:47 p.m. ET

Written By:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”