Liberty vs. UTEP Prediction: Tonight's College Football Week 7 Expert Picks

The first night of Weekday CUSA wraps up with Liberty visiting UTEP tonight, and my college football picks and Liberty vs. UTEP prediction thinks the Miners can keep things close on their home turf. Kickoff from the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas, is at 8 p.m. ET (CBSSN).

Liberty has fallen short of expectations this season, but still finds itself lined as a 2.5-point road betting favorite. My college football predictions for Week 7 explain why I think that leaves the door open for UTEP to cover in front of its home crowd. Make sure to stay on top of all the Weekday CUSA action tonight with Isaiah Sirois' Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee prediction.

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🏈 Liberty vs. UTEP predictions

College football expert picks for Week 7; odds subject to change.

• Game pick: UTEP +2.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Over/Under pick: Under 47.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Player prop bet: Ashten Emory anytime TD (+110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

✅ Liberty vs. UTEP expert pick

Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.

⛏️ UTEP +2.5 (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

These teams are a combined 2-8 this season, but Liberty has been a far bigger disaster, as many projected Jamey Chadwell to at least have his program in contention for the Conference USA Championship. Instead, the Flames are 0-3 on the road and just 1-4 ATS overall, with their lone cover coming last week in a 14-point loss to Old Dominion (Liberty was +14.5).

There's no bigger disappointment in the Group of Five this season than Liberty, with Coastal Carolina transfer Ethan Vasko looking horrendous at QB. He missed last week's loss but is expected to play on Wednesday. Vasko has the third-lowest adjusted completion percentage in the country among QBs with at least 100 dropbacks (60.7%), and the Flames are No. 119 in EPA per pass and No. 112 in SP+ on offense. Meanwhile, UTEP quietly has one of the best defenses in the CUSA.

The Miners exposed Arch Manning earlier this season, and rank top 30 in EPA per pass and rush on defense behind the play of pass rusher Udoka Ezeani and a talented secondary led by Solo Barnes and Neil Campbell. UTEP allows the fewest yards per game in the CUSA (340.4).

While Malachi Nelson will need to cut back on turnovers for UTEP to cover, Liberty's defense is just No. 92 in SP+. If Nelson can keep it together and the Miners cover for the third time in five games, a $10 bet pays an $8.70 profit.

💰 Best Liberty vs. UTEP player prop bet

Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

🔥 Ashten Emory anytime TD (+110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

In what should be a fairly low-scoring game, UTEP's rushing attack can be the difference against a Liberty defense that's struggled to slow the ground game this season. The Flames are No. 117 in EPA per rush on defense and allow the most rushing yards per game in the CUSA (225.0).

Skylor Magee and Kyle Krantz's defense has allowed nine rushing TDs in five games, so UTEP running back Ashten Emory should have every opportunity to score. Emory leads the Miners in rush attempts (44), forced missed tackles (20), and total touchdowns (4) this season.

If the freshman can find the end zone, a $10 bet at FanDuel pays an $11 profit. This same prop is listed at -130 at our other best college football betting sites, implying a 56.52% probability he'll score.

📊 Liberty vs. UTEP odds

Latest college football odds updated live in real time.

📺 How to watch Liberty vs. UTEP: Week 7

• Date: Wednesday, Oct. 8
• Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Where: Sun Bowl (El Paso, Texas)
• TV: CBSSN