Kent State vs. Akron Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 12 Betting Preview

I'm diving into my Kent State vs. Akron prediction with weekday MACtion in full swing. Kickoff from InfoCision Stadium in Akron, Ohio, is slated for Tuesday at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPNU).

My college football Week 12 predictions examine if the Zips can cover as a 5.5-point home betting favorite as they contender with a MACtion staple - snow in the forecast.

✅ Kent State vs. Akron prediction & expert picks

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 12.

📊 Kent State vs. Akron odds

See live college football odds for every game in Week 12.

🏈 Kent State vs. Akron preview & score prediction

Kent State had a chance to win last week, but a stuffed run on fourth-and-short gave Ball State the football back and set up a go-ahead touchdown. Meanwhile, Akron demolished a historically bad UMass team by 34. The Minutemen are a transitive opponent for these teams, with Kent State crushing them by 36. These teams are more closely matched than the odds suggest.

This game is a tricky one to handicap because both sides played some excellent teams to open the year, skewing the data. When we filter to games played Week 7 onward, however, we get rid of some noise. Over that stretch, Akron is seventh in the MAC in offensive success rate (40%), and Kent State is ninth (38.5%). Kent State is fifth in defensive success rate (35.5%), and Akron is sixth (36.3%).

Kent State is catching too many points

Aside from their tight proximity in success rate since Week 7, these teams are tightly matched in predicted points added and points per scoring opportunity. The problem for Akron is that Kent State has the far better quarterback. Kent State’s Dru DeShields leads the conference in adjusted yards per pass attempt (8.8) and ranks 53rd overall in passing efficiency (143.8). Ben Finley, his Akron counterpart, clocks in with a 6.7 (7th in MAC) and 122 (99th overall) in both metrics, respectively.

The question then becomes whether Kent State can capitalize upon its quarterback advantage on the road. DeShields has not played well on the road against MAC opposition, which is a red flag, but Akron’s defense ranks a dreadful 109th in yards allowed per pass attempt (8), third-worst in the MAC. 

The Zips have looked good in conference play, but they haven’t looked good enough to warrant a 6-point advantage at some sportsbooks. Lock in Kent State to cover the +6 for -110 (52.4%) at DraftKings to score a solid $9.09 profit from a $10 bet before this line moves any further.

Score prediction: Kent State 24, Akron 23

🆚 Kent State vs. Akron matchup to watch

Ben Finley vs. Kent State pass defense

The Golden Flashes have been limiting their opponents’ quarterbacks effectively over their last few games. Ball State’s Kiael Kelly threw for only 173 yards. Bowling Green’s Baron May threw for only 142 (and the team totaled just 172). Toledo’s Tucker Gleason and Buffalo’s Ta’Quan Robertson both popped early in the season, but I trust the Golden Flashes’ recent form.

Also complicating things is the weather. The forecast calls for sub-freezing temperatures and light snow, which, while a staple of the MAC, was an issue for Finley last year. He completed only 45.8% of his passes last November – and only 42.2% over his last three games that month. 

With Kent State generating havoc at a solid 17.8% clip, fifth-best in the MAC, I trust the Golden Flashes to limit Finley in unfavorable conditions. Finley played his high-school ball in Arizona and stopped at NC State and Cal before winding up at Akron, so he hasn’t had to play much in the cold. Let’s fade him for Under 223.5 passing yards for -114 (53.3%) at FanDuel.

Best prop bet: Ben Finley Under 223.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

📈 Kent State vs. Akron betting trends

🌤️ Kent State vs. Akron weather

The weather for Tuesday’s Kent State vs. Akron game could be messy. The forecast calls for freezing temperatures at kickoff with a 52% chance of precipitation in the form of snow – as well as wind gusts of just below 30 mph.

📺 How to watch Kent State vs. Akron

• Date: Tuesday, Nov. 11
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: InfoCision Stadium (Akron, Ohio)
• TV: ESPNU