Kansas State vs. Arizona Prediction, Odds & Picks: College Football Week 3 Best Bets
Despite a head-scratching loss to Army last week, Kansas State is the 1.5-point betting favorite as I make my Kansas State vs. Arizona prediction for Friday’s 9 p.m. ET (FOX) game at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Ariz.
For the college football picks on this game, 63% back Arizona to cover.
But I explain why Kansas State will get back on track and why the defense will shut down Noah Fifita. For more about this game and the entire upcoming slate, check out our college football predictions for Week 3.
🏈 Kansas State vs. Arizona prediction
College football expert picks for Friday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Kansas State (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Kansas State -1.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 54.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Best bet: Noah Fifita Under 249.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📝 Kansas State vs. Arizona best bet
Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.
🟣 Kansas State moneyline (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Last week, Kansas State lost the time of possession battle 40:29-19:31, and it still only lost by three. I expect them to have much more success against an Arizona offense that doesn’t match up favorably with a pass defense allowing just 176.7 passing yards per game.
Arizona has outscored its first two opponents 88-9.
However, against Hawaii, it only possessed the ball for 24:16, and Fifita was just 13/23 for 161 yards. Kansas State’s pass defense has not been the issue, and if it locks down Fifita, Arizona might not have an answer.
After all, Arizona is averaging 117 more passing yards than rushing yards per game.
Despite receiving most public support, Arizona is the underdog. BetMGM is offering Kansas State at -120, which implies a 54.55% chance they win, and a winning $10 bet will profit $8.33.
💰 Best Kansas State vs. Arizona player prop bet
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬇️ Noah Fifita Under 249.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Fifita threw for 373 yards last week against Weber State, but his Week 1 performance against Hawaii has me concerned about his prospects this week. He completed just 56.5% of his passes in that game for 161 yards, and he averaged just 7.0 yards per attempt.
The stats for Kansas State’s pass defense are skewed due to Army only throwing 12 times for 93 yards last week. However, they only allowed 183 passing yards to Iowa State in Week 0 and 231 to Jerry Kaminski in a high-scoring Week 1 game.
Last season, Fifita threw for 268 yards against Kansas State, but he also threw 42 passes as his team trailed from start to finish. That’s only 6.4 yards per attempt. FanDuel’s price suggests a 53.27% chance that Fifita hits this Under. A $10 bet will pay $8.77.
📊 Kansas State vs. Arizona odds: Week 3
Kansas State vs. Arizona odds update live in real time.
📈 Kansas State vs. Arizona opening odds
- Moneyline: Kansas State +100 | Arizona -120
- Spread: Kansas State -1.5 (-110) | Arizona +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 (-110) | Under 54.5 (-110)
🔍 Kansas State vs. Arizona odds analysis
Kansas State is the 1.5-point betting favorite despite the majority of the public backing Arizona to win. Oddsmakers feel confident in Kansas State and are likely taking advantage of public frustration after last week’s game against Army. No matter how much support either team gets, I expect this to remain what is essentially a pick-em.
🔢 Kansas State vs. Arizona stats
Season stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
| Kansas State | Statistic (per game) | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| 26.7 | Points | 44.0 |
| 27.7 | Points allowed | 4.5 |
| -0.3 | Turnover margin | +3.5 |
| 254.3 | Passing yards | 283.5 |
| 109.0 | Rushing yards | 166.5 |
| 176.7 | Passing yards allowed | 145.5 |
| 156.3 | Rushing yards allowed | 91.5 |
| +1.9 | Net yards per play | +3.7 |
📺 Kansas State vs. Arizona game info
- When: Friday, Sept. 12
- Kickoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Where: Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Ariz.)
- How to watch: FOX
❓ Kansas State vs. Arizona FAQs
Who is favored to win Kansas State vs. Arizona?
Arizona opened as the small betting favorite, but Kansas State is now favored (-1.5).
What is the spread for Kansas State vs. Arizona?
Kansas State is favored by 1.5 points to beat Arizona.
What is the Over/Under for Kansas State vs. Arizona?
The Over/Under is set at 54.5, and there hasn’t been overwhelming public support for either side of the total.
What are the best bets for Kansas State vs. Arizona?
The best bets for Kansas State vs. Arizona are Kansas State to win and Noah Fifita Under 249.5 passing yards.
When is the Kansas State vs. Arizona game?
The Kansas State vs. Arizona game is Friday at 9 p.m. ET on FOX.
How do college football odds work?
When betting on college football, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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