James Madison vs. Texas State Prediction & Odds: College Football Week 10 Betting Preview

Our James Madison vs. Texas State prediction breaks down this perceived mismatch between the visiting Dukes, who are a perfect 4-0 in Sun Belt play, and the Bobcats, who are winless in three Sun Belt games, as part of our college football Week 10 predictions. 

James Madison is a bona fide College Football Playoff contender, but the line has surprisingly moved against the Dukes. James Madison has been bet down from a 7-point to a 6-point betting favorite ahead of kickoff from UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, Texas, on Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN2). 

📊 James Madison vs. Texas State odds: Week 10

See the latest college football odds for every game in Week 10.

✅ James Madison vs. Texas State expert picks

See our experts' college football picks for every Week 10 game.

🏈 James Madison vs. Texas State preview & score prediction

Something feels fishy about the line movement in this game, as James Madison clearly has the better record, but saw its line tick down a full point despite receiving 74% of the early wagers. That has me looking to the Over 57.5 as my best bet for this Sun Belt matchup, given how hot both offenses have been.

Both teams can light up the scoreboard

Do not buy much into the fact that James Madison has cashed the Under in six of seven games this year. The Dukes are coming off a 63-27 drubbing of Old Dominion in their homecoming game. They totaled 624 yards and scored at least 14 points in each quarter, while quarterback Alonza Barnett accounted for six total touchdowns. 

James Madison leads the conference in points per game allowed (15.6) and total defense (237). But Texas State entered its last outing ranked in the top 15 nationally in total yards and the top 30 in scoring, and has scored 30 or more points in each game amid a three-game losing streak.

Given that Texas State ranked as the eighth-worst FBS team in defensive stop rate (46.4%) after Week 8, its likely best chance of being competitive in this game is getting into another shootout with the Dukes.

DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering 57.5, while all others are a point higher at 58.5. That makes paying up for the -118 juice at 54.13% implied odds worth it. If the Over 57.5 cashes, my $10 winning wager would net $8.47 in profits.

✅ Score prediction: James Madison 35, Texas State 28

🆚 Key matchup to watch

Alonza Barnett vs. Texas State defensive line

Alonza Barnett's six touchdowns in his last game were one off his career-high. His dual-threat ability makes him nearly impossible for Sun Belt teams to defend, as seen last game, when he averaged 11.8 yards per pass attempt and 9.0 yards per rush on a team-high 17 carries.

Texas State came out of Week 8 as one of 16 FBS teams allowing at least a field goal per opponents’ drive, and James Madison plays up-tempo enough to hang another crooked number on the scoreboard.

There are no player props available as of this writing, but I would play Barnett to score two or more touchdowns at anything involving plus-money odds. In the meantime, I am backing James Madison to score 32-plus points for the third time in the last five games.

A $10 winning wager through DraftKings’ -110 odds at a 52.38% implied probability would net $9.09 in profits.

✅ Best game prop bet: James Madison team total Over 31.5 (-110 via DraftKings)

📈 James Madison vs. Texas State betting trends

🌤️ James Madison vs. Texas State weather

Temperatures in San Marcos will drop into the low 50s on Tuesday night. But there is no precipitation in the forecast, and only wind gusts of up to 28 mph could have an occasional impact on each team’s passing attack.

📺 How to watch James Madison vs. Texas State

• Date: Tuesday, Oct. 28
• Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Where: UFCU Stadium (San Marcos, Texas)
• TV: ESPN2