James Madison vs. Oregon Prediction: 2025 College Football Playoff Odds & Best Bet

Let’s dive into our James Madison vs. Oregon prediction for the first round of the college football playoff as we break down the opening odds to make our early picks. This game is scheduled for Saturday, Dec. 20, at 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT) from Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore.

No. 5 Oregon is a 21.5-point home betting favorite versus No. 12 James Madison. Although the Dukes are a massive underdog as a Group of Five representative, they’ve shown a lot of fight all season.

Stay ahead this bowl season with our updated college football bowl game odds and schedule.

🏈 Early James Madison vs. Oregon prediction: CFP first round

Stay ahead with the rest of our early college football picks for every bowl game.

Oregon -21.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐

It may not be fun to lay the heavy favorite, but that’s simply the right move in this CFP first-round matchup. Last year, the home teams went 4-0 both straight up and against the spread. While this number is a lot wider than the spreads we saw last season, it’s still well within Oregon’s ability to cover, and it makes sense to buy them now before it widens further. 

Oregon is a top-four team across the FPI, Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), and Jeff Sagarin’s rankings. The latter two systems make the spread for this game in the 23-to-25 points range, clearing the number you’ll find across the best sports betting sites. Unlike many top-ranked teams, Oregon is balanced, with a top-six offense and defense in the FPI and FEI.

James Madison is solid, but while its strong defensive front could hold the line against smaller teams, that’ll be a problem against Oregon. Further, with Oregon’s defense leading the country in yards allowed per pass attempt (5.3), I don’t see how James Madison can hang around in what profiles as a pass-heavy game script.

Lock in the Ducks to cover the 21.5 for -105 (51.2%) on FanDuel and hope that James Madison’s Cinderella story comes to an early – and unhappy – end.

📊 Live James Madison vs. Oregon odds: CFP Round 1

See the latest college football odds for every bowl game in real time.

James Madison vs. Oregon opening odds

• Moneyline: James Madison +900 | Oregon -1600
• Spread: James Madison +20.5 (-110) | Oregon -20.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 51 (-110) | Under 51 (-110)

James Madison vs. Oregon line movement

The spread for Saturday’s action opened at 20.5 but has since crossed the key number of 21 to reach 21.5. That’s a meaningful move, but the advanced metrics point to a wider spread, and I recommend getting your action down now before it gets any wider.

The total opened at 51, but most of our best sports betting apps have dropped it to 49.5 or 49, which, when read in conjunction with the widening spread, points to a market that’s increasingly skeptical of James Madison’s offense. Don’t expect this number to move around much further.

📈 James Madison vs. Oregon trends & betting notes: CFP Round 1

Check out all of our college football analysis and betting advice for bowl season.

• Under (exiting) head coach Bob Chesney, James Madison hasn’t played a ranked team, but the program is 2-0 against the spread as an underdog.
• Oregon is an impressive 17-9 against the spread as a home favorite since head coach Dan Lanning’s arrival in 2022. 
• James Madison is a profitable 17-9 to the Under with Chesney at the helm.
• Oregon is 14-13 to the Over at home under Lanning, but the Ducks are 11-9 to the Under against ranked teams during his tenure.

📺 How to watch James Madison vs. Oregon: 2025 College Football Playoff

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 20
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Autzen Stadium (Eugene, Ore.)
• TV: TNT, HBO Max, truTV