Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Predictions & Odds | 2025 ReliaQuest Bowl Best Bet & TD Pick
In what should be among the best bowl games of the year, my Iowa vs. Vanderbilt predictions are projecting the Hawkeyes to keep things close against Diego Pavia and Co. in the ReliaQuest Bowl.
Vanderbilt is a 5.5-point betting favorite for today's noon ET (ESPN) ReliaQuest Bowl from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., but my college bowl game predictions don't expect the Commodores to cruise to a victory against a feisty Iowa team.
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🏈 Iowa vs. Vanderbilt predictions: 2025 ReliaQuest Bowl
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| Predictions | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Iowa +5.5 | -105 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Diego Pavia anytime TD | +100 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 Iowa vs. Vanderbilt best bet
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Iowa +5.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Vanderbilt is without its best playmaker, Eli Stowers, against an Iowa defense that's arguably the most underrated in the country. The Hawkeyes are ranked No. 7 on defense by SP+, allow the sixth-fewest PPG in the country (15.2), and held the guy who beat Pavia for the Heisman, Fernando Mendoza, to 20 points.
Even more dominant than its defense is its offensive line, with Kirk Ferentz's team taking home the Joe Moore Award. With multiple All-Americans leading the way, Iowa's run-first offense should do damage.
Iowa is 3-0-1 ATS against ranked teams this season.
Score prediction: Vanderbilt 23, Iowa 20
🙌 Best Iowa vs. Vanderbilt touchdown pick: ReliaQuest Bowl
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Diego Pavia, QB, Vanderbilt: Anytime TD (+100) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
While I think Iowa will muck this game up and keep it close, I also think Pavia is going to go out with a bang in his final collegiate game.
The Heisman runner-up is arguably more lethal as a runner than he is as a passer, earning those Johnny "Football" Manziel comparisons.
Pavia is top 10 in the country among QBs in 10-plus-yard runs (33) and top 20 in rushing yards after contact (458). His legs will be the X-factor against an Iowa defense that's allowed more rushing touchdowns (11) than passing TDs (7).
In four seasons at New Mexico State and Vanderbilt, Pavia has racked up 30 rushing touchdowns, including nine this season. He's scored in six straight games.
🩸 QBs that risk their bodies to win
Both Pavia and Iowa's Mark Gronowski play QB like they have zero regard for their bodies, and it perfectly fits their teams' identities. Much like Pavia, Gronowski can be more impactful as a runner than a thrower, and the stats reflect it.
The South Dakota State transfer has thrown just eight TDs this year, but he's run for 15 more. That's why I'm parlaying both him (-140) and Pavia to score, with +267 odds at FanDuel.
📝 Top NFL draft prospects for ReliaQuest Bowl
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| Player | Position | Key stats | NFL draft grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gennings Dunker, Iowa | OT | 3 sacks, 11 pressures allowed | Round 2-3 |
| Max Llewellyn, Iowa | EDGE | 9 TFLs, 6 sacks | Round 3-4 |
| Logan Jones, Iowa | OC | 1 sack, 3 pressures allowed | Round 3-5 |
| Beau Stephens, Iowa | OG | 0 sacks, 3 pressures allowed | Round 3-5 |
| Xavier Nwankpa, Iowa | SAF | 69 tackles, 1 INT | Round 5-7 |
| Junior Sherrill, Vanderbilt | WR | 677 scrimmage yards, 8 TDs | Round 5-7 |
| Miles Capers, Vanderbilt | EDGE | 9.5 TFLs, 4.5 sacks | Round 5-7 |
| Khordae Snyder, Vanderbilt | DL | 8.5 TFLs, 3.5 sacks | Round 6-UDFA |
| Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt | QB | 38 total touchdowns | Round 6-UDFA |
| Jordan White, Vanderbilt | OC | 1 sack, 16 pressures allowed | Round 6-UDFA |
📊 Live Iowa vs. Vanderbilt odds: ReliaQuest Bowl
Iowa vs. Vanderbilt opening odds
- Moneyline: Iowa +185 | Vanderbilt -225
- Spread: Iowa +5.5 (-110) | Vanderbilt -5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 47 (-110) | Under 47 (-110)
📈 Iowa vs. Vanderbilt betting trends
| Iowa | Statistic | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| 8-4 | W-L record | 10-2 |
| 8-3-1 | ATS record | 9-2-1 |
| 5-6-1 | O/U record | 8-4 |
| 5.2 | Yards per play | 7.5 |
| 4.5 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5 |
| +0.2 | Turnover margin | +0.2 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
| W, 40-16 vs. Nebraska | Previous result | W, 45-24 vs. Tennessee |
📺 How to watch Iowa vs. Vanderbilt: ReliaQuest Bowl
- Date: Wednesday, Dec. 31
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Fla.)
- TV: ESPN
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