Iowa vs. Iowa State Prediction, Odds & Expert Picks: College Football Week 2 Best Bets
Even though college football rosters these days are less stable than a one-legged table, it’s difficult not to focus on historical data when making an Iowa vs. Iowa State prediction. Saturday’s showdown at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa, is set for noon ET (FOX).
Sure, No. 16 Iowa State (2-0) is a 3-point betting favorite against unranked visiting Iowa (1-0). But the road team has owned this in-state rivalry of late with four straight wins; the underdog is on a 5-2 ATS run; and both defenses have dominated (resulting in a 5-1 Under streak). Those things impact my college football picks.
Our college football predictions for Week 2 include my favorite play on the game and my favorite player prop.
🏈 Iowa vs. Iowa State prediction
College football expert picks made Friday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Iowa State (-156 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Iowa +3.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 41.5 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📝 Iowa vs. Iowa State preview & best bet
Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.
⬇️ Under 41.5 (-108) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
How low can they go? That’s been the theme of the Iowa-Iowa State rivalry in recent years. In fact, the victor has scored more than 20 points just once in the six head-to-head battles, that being Iowa’s 27-17 road victory in 2021 - the only matchup since 2018 to clear 40 combined points.
Granted, the Over cashed last year, but the closing total was 36.5 - and it took a 54-yard field goal at the gun for Iowa State to escape with a 20-19 win. Had that high-stakes boot been off target, this rivalry would be on a 6-0 Under roll.
Even still, the Under is 15-4-1 in Iowa-Iowa State battles since 2004. That includes a dozen contests that failed to top 40 points (including the last three in a row).
What about the fact that Iowa opened with a 34-7 win last week and Iowa State put up 55 in its home opener? Who cares - its respective opponents were Albany and South Dakota. So play this one Under 41.5 at DraftKings at odds of -108. That’s an implied win probability of 51.92%, with a winning $10 wager returning $9.26.
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💰 Best Iowa vs. Iowa State player prop bet
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬇️ Mark Gronowski Under 0.5 TD passes (+130) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
It should be pretty easy for the starting quarterback of a major college football program to throw one TD pass in a game, right? Not if that quarterback wears an Iowa uniform and is facing Iowa State.
Get this: The Hawkeyes have completed just one touchdown pass in their last six meetings against the Cyclones - and none in the last three years.
I highly doubt Iowa transfer Mark Gronowski, who has thrown just 51 passes in college, will add to that total Saturday in Ames, Iowa. So we’ll take the +130 odds that BetMGM is offering on Gronowski not to throw a scoring pass. The implied win probability is just 43.48%, but a $10 wager would yield $13 if it hits.
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📊 Iowa vs. Iowa State odds: Week 2
College football odds update live in real time.
📈 Iowa vs. Iowa State opening odds
- Moneyline: Iowa +140 | Iowa State -165
- Spread: Iowa +2.5 (-105) | Iowa State -2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-110)
🔍 Iowa vs. Iowa State odds analysis
The Iowa vs. Iowa State odds held pretty steady until late-week action on the host Cyclones pushed the point spread past the key number of 3. Because these teams traditionally play competitive contests - four of the last seven meetings were decided by 3 points or fewer, and not one by more than 10 points - I would expect some buyback on the Hawkeyes, with this line closing at Iowa State -3.
🔢 Iowa vs. Iowa State stats
Season stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
| Iowa (1-0) | Statistic (per game) | Iowa State (2-0) |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Points | 39.5 |
| 7 | Points allowed | 14 |
| 1 | Turnover margin | 1 |
| 48 | Passing yards | 244.5 |
| 310 | Rushing yards | 176.5 |
| 134 | Passing yards allowed | 199.5 |
| 43 | Rushing yards allowed | 96.5 |
| 1.4 | Net yards per play | 0.5 |
📺 Iowa vs. Iowa State game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 6
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Where: Jack Trice Stadium (Ames, Iowa)
- How to watch: FOX
❓ Iowa vs. Iowa State FAQs
Who is favored to win Iowa vs. Iowa State?
Iowa State is a moneyline favorite of -156 to -175.
What is the spread for Iowa vs. Iowa State?
The point spread has since risen to Iowa State -3.5.
What is the Over/Under for Iowa vs. Iowa State?
The Over/Under is down one full point from the opening number to 41.5.
What are the best bets for Iowa vs. Iowa State?
My best bets for Iowa vs. Iowa State are the Under 41.5 and Mark Gronowski Under 0.5 passing touchdowns.
When is the Iowa vs. Iowa State game?
The Iowa vs. Iowa State game kicks off at noon ET on Saturday, Sept. 6, and will be televised nationally on FOX.
How do college football odds work?
When betting on college football, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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