Indiana vs. Ohio State Prediction & Odds Today: Big Ten Championship Betting Preview

In a matchup of the top two teams in the country, my Indiana vs. Ohio State prediction expects these game-wrecking defenses to keep a pair of Heisman-contending quarterbacks quiet in today's Big Ten Championship.

No. 1 Ohio State is a 4-point betting favorite against No. 2 Indiana ahead of Saturday's Big Ten Championship Game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis (8 p.m. ET, FOX). And while my college football conference championship predictions project the Buckeyes to win their first conference title since 2020, it's going to have more to do with their historically dominant defense than their loaded offense.

Indiana vs. Ohio State predictions today: Big Ten Championship

Indiana vs. Ohio State best bet & score prediction

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Under 48 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While Fernando Mendoza is the Heisman Trophy odds favorite, the projected No. 1 pick in the NFL draft has not seen a defense like Ohio State's this season. The Buckeyes are No. 1 in defensive SP+, top five in both EPA per rush and pass, allow the fewest yards per game in the country (203.0), and give up the fewest PPG in the nation (7.8).

Led by four potential first-round picks in Caleb Downs, Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, and Kayden McDonald, Matt Patricia's defense has only allowed nine touchdowns this season. The Buckeyes have yet to give up more than 16 points in a game and have held ranked opponents to 10.6 PPG.

So even though Mendoza has NFL franchise QB tools and several fellow Sunday players surrounding him on this offense, the Hoosiers haven't played a defense of this caliber yet. In Indiana's two games against teams with defenses ranked top 10 by SP+, it averaged 25 PPG ... 23.2 fewer points than in its other 10 games.

Sayin's biggest test since Week 1 

Though Julian Sayin has become one of the best passers in the country this year, he's rarely been tested. The Buckeyes' star QB has taken advantage of a plethora of lackluster Big Ten defenses while throwing to the best wide receiver duo in the country, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate.

Could the 20-year-old look more like the sporadic young quarterback we saw in Week 1 against Texas when facing an Indiana defense that's the second-best in the country? The Hoosiers' defense is ranked No. 2 by SP+, it's top four in both EPA per pass and rush, allows the fourth-fewest yards per game (251.8), and the second-fewest points (10.9). 

With these being the top defenses in college football, these two QBs could struggle in a championship atmosphere, especially since neither passer has faced this high level of defense yet. Thanks to Ohio State's "silver bullet" defense, the Buckeyes have hit the Under in three of their last four, and if they do again, a $10 bet pays a $9.09 profit.

Score prediction: Ohio State 26, Indiana 20

Indiana vs. Ohio State matchup to watch

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Fernando Mendoza vs. Ohio State's back seven

There's a strong chance that Mendoza will bring home the Heisman Trophy, and there's a similarly strong chance he'll be the first QB selected this April. However, for as special a season as he's having for Indiana, this is far and away the toughest matchup of his collegiate career.

Ohio State's back seven is loaded with talent, from the best defensive back in the country (safety Caleb Downs) to the player many are calling the most talented in the 2026 NFL Draft (linebacker Arvell Reese). But that's not all, the Buckeyes also have one of the best cornerback trios in the country (Davison Igbinosun, Jermaine Mathews Jr., Lorenzo Styles Jr.), which has been key to them ranking No. 1 in EPA per dropback and passing yards allowed per game (121.3).

The most passing yards Ohio State has allowed in a game this season was 248 to Luke Altmyer, with much of that coming in garbage time after the Buckeyes were up 34-10 early in the fourth quarter. The next most they've given up was 173, and in ranked matchups, opposing QBs have averaged just 160.3 passing yards.

Mendoza has been much less consistent away from home, too, averaging 196.8 passing yards per game. If the Indiana star goes Under 210.5 passing yards for the fourth time in his last six games, a $10 bet pays an $8.77 profit.

If you're a Hoosier believer, our Mike Spector has you covered with his college football best bets.

Best prop bet: Fernando Mendoza Under 210.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

Indiana vs. Ohio State odds today

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Indiana vs. Ohio State weather

This game will be played indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium, so the weather won't be a factor for Indiana vs. Ohio State for Saturday's Big Ten Championship.

How to watch Indiana vs. Ohio State today: Big Ten Championship

• Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
• Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
• TV: FOX

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