Illinois vs. Indiana Prediction, Odds & Picks: Hoosiers and Mendoza to Cook the Illini
The Week 4 college football slate is loaded with action, and we’re diving into our Illinois vs. Indiana prediction as part of our college football picks. This game will get underway on Saturday, Sept. 20, at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock) from Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind.
Indiana is a 6.5-point betting favorite for one of our college football predictions for Week 4, which also includes a player prop for Fernando Mendoza.
🏈 Illinois vs. Indiana prediction to win
College football expert picks for Saturday; odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Indiana ML (-230 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Indiana -6.5 (-via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Over 52.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐
📝 Illinois vs. Indiana best bet
Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.
⚪️ Indiana -6.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
I like Indiana to win and cover, but I don’t love this number. Indiana opened at -2.5 before ticking up to -4.5 come mid-week, and it's now -6.5 on Friday. The time to buy was earlier in the week, but if you need some exposure to this game, anything under the key number of 7 is an acceptable play. Indiana and head coach Curt Cignetti are rolling, and they’ll keep flying in this spot versus a shaky Illinois team.
Indiana outpaces Illinois in every key metric. The Hoosiers rank 16th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) with the 13th-ranked offense and 24th-ranked defense. Illinois clocks in at 27th with the 22nd-ranked offense and the 44th-ranked defense. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt and should cook an Illinois defense that allowed 334 passing yards to Duke’s Darian Mensah and ranks 68th in yards surrendered per pass attempt (7.1).
Illinois’ signature win, a Week 2 blowout road victory over Duke, hinged on some favorable turnover luck and mistakes from the Blue Devils. Cignetti’s team is far more disciplined and won’t give the ball away, which is why his Hoosiers are 11-5 against the spread since last year (and 8-3 as home favorites).
Back Indiana to cover at -110 (52.4%) on BetMGM to score a $9.09 profit on a $10 bet.
💰 Best Illinois vs. Indiana player prop pick
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Fernando Mendoza Over 250.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐
Mendoza is a great player to buy on the Illinois vs. Indiana player prop markets for Saturday. The last time this Illinois defense needed to stop an opposing quarterback on the road, it let Mensah throw for 334 yards on 9.8 yards per pass attempt. The secondary ranks as a bottom-quartile unit in havoc generated by defensive backs, so don’t expect Mendoza to face much resistance.
Illinois should be good enough to hang around against Indiana, forcing the Hoosiers to keep throwing. Quarterback Luke Altmyer plays well on the road, posting a comparable passing efficiency at home (143.2) to what he does as the visitor (142.3). Indiana hasn’t needed to throw much so far, as the team ranks 115th in passing play percentage (39.1%). But the school threw slightly more last year en route to a 92nd-place ranking (44.8%).
Even with limited volume, Mendoza is still averaging 236 passing yards per game this year. That’s a little below this line, but he averaged 273.1 passing yards per game at Cal a year ago, and Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke averaged 253.5 in this offense last year.
Trust Mendoza to go over the 250.5 yards for -114 (53.3%) at FanDuel to win $8.77 on a $10 bet.
📊 Illinois vs. Indiana odds: Week 4
Illinois vs. Indiana odds update live in real time.
📈 Illinois vs. Indiana opening odds
- Moneyline: Illinois +158 | Indiana -192
- Spread: Illinois +2.5 (-110) | Indiana -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 (-116) | Under 54.5 (-106)
🔍 Illinois vs. Indiana odds analysis
Most of the line movement we’ll see before Saturday’s Illinois vs. Indiana game is in the books. After opening as a field-goal favorite, Indiana has since moved to a touchdown advantage. The number steadily ticked up throughout the week and is unlikely to clear the key number of seven. There's a chance we see some Illinois buyback late to bring this under 6, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
The total hasn’t moved as dramatically. It opened at 54.5 and has since dipped to 52.5. In conjunction with the spread moving in Indiana’s favor, the books are expressing a serious lack of confidence in Illinois’ offense in this spot, which I don’t fully agree with. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the total close at a number closer to where this game opened.
🔢 Illinois vs. Indiana key stats
Season stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
| Illinois | Statistic (per game) | Indiana |
| 45 | Points | 52 |
| 7.3 | Points allowed | 7.7 |
| +6 | Turnover margin | +4 |
| 241 | Passing yards | 284 |
| 164.7 | Rushing yards | 307.7 |
| 193.7 | Passing yards allowed | 105.3 |
| 74 | Rushing yards allowed | 115.3 |
| 5.5 | Net yards per play | 7 |
📺 Illinois vs. Indiana game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 20
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, Ind.)
- How to watch: NBC/Peacock
❓ Illinois vs. Indiana FAQs
Who is favored to win Illinois vs. Indiana?
Indiana is a touchdown betting favorite to win Saturday’s Illinois vs. Indiana game.
What is the spread for Illinois vs. Indiana?
The spread for Illinois vs. Indiana is Indiana -6.5 after opening at Indiana -2.5.
What is the Over/Under for Illinois vs. Indiana?
The total for Illinois vs. Indiana is 52.5 after opening slightly higher at 54.5.
What are the best bets for Illinois vs. Indiana?
The best bets for Illinois vs. Indiana are Indiana -6.5 and Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza over 250.5 passing yards.
When is the Illinois vs. Indiana game?
Saturday’s Illinois vs. Indiana game gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock).
How do college football odds work?
When betting on college football, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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