Illinois State vs. Montana State Predictions & Odds | FCS National Championship Expert Picks
My Illinois State vs. Montana State predictions expect the Big Sky to end its championship drought today, as for the fifth straight season the FCS national championship pits a team from the Missouri Valley and the Big Sky against each other, but with neither of the Dakota powerhouses taking the field.
Montana State is a 10-point betting favorite, with kickoff from FirstBank Stadium in Nashville set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).
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🏈 Illinois State vs. Montana State predictions: FCS national championship
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| Predictions | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Montana State -10 | -110 via DraftKings | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Taco Dowler anytime TD | +132 via Caesars | ⭐⭐⭐ |
💰 Illinois State vs. Montana State best bet
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Montana State -10 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
While Illinois State's run to the FCS championship has been jaw-dropping, it won't have a feel-good ending against a Montana State program seeking redemption after losing the championship to NDSU last season. The Bobcats have taken on five straight playoff teams, two to close the regular season, and beaten them by an average of 14.6 points.
🚗 Illinois State and the road less traveled
Among the most impressive underdog stories in college football this season is Illinois State. Not only did the Redbirds upset the No. 1 team in the country, defending champion North Dakota State, thanks to a 14-point comeback, but Brock Spack's team is the first in FCS history to win four road games in a single playoff.
Heading into the FCS playoffs, Illinois State had +10000 odds to win it all and was a non-seeded at-large bid. On their road to Nashville, the Redbirds have beaten No. 16-seed Southeastern Louisiana (+30000), No. 1-seed NDSU (-330), No. 8-seed UC Davis (+4500), and No. 12-seed Villanova (+8000). Montana State entered the playoffs with the second-shortest odds to win it all (+550).
Throughout the FCS playoffs, Illinois State, which is in Normal, Ill., has traveled to Hammond, La. (790 miles), Fargo, N.D. (692 miles), Davis, Calif. (2,024 miles), Villanova, Pa. (805 miles), and now to Nashville (424 miles).
The Redbirds have gone 4,735 miles in an attempt to make history; that's more miles traveled in the playoffs than several NFL teams have traveled this season, according to our NFL fatigue index.
Led by an offense ranked No. 4 in the FCS by SP+, Montana State should terrorize an Illinois State defense that has overachieved in the playoffs.
Brent Vigen is poised to bring a title to Bozeman for just the second time.
Score prediction: Montana State 34, Illinois State 20
🙌 Best Illinois State vs. Montana State touchdown pick: FCS national championship
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Taco Dowler, WR, Montana State: TD Pick (+132) ⭐⭐⭐
The Dowler twins, Taco and Caden, are a big reason Montana State has bullied its way to a second straight FCS national championship berth.
And while Caden is the more decorated of the two, taking home Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year, it's Taco who is poised to be a spicy matchup for an Illinois State defense that is the clear hole for the Redbirds.
Illinois State has overachieved defensively in the playoffs, but has given up 28-plus points in eight of its last 14 games and is ranked just No. 28 on defense by SP+.
Dowler's top 10 in the FCS in YAC (550) and forced missed tackles on receptions (18), with his big play ability after the catch making him a threat to score on any play. The junior has found the end zone seven times in his last 13 games, including in the FCS semifinals edition of Brawl of the Wild.
📝 Top NFL draft prospects for FCS national championship
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| Player | Position | Key stats | NFL draft grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taco Dowler, Montana State | WR | 1,339 all-purpose yards, 7 TDs | Round 6-UDFA |
| Daniel Sobkowicz, Illinois State | WR | 1,089 receiving yards, 19 total TDs | Round 6-UDFA |
| Titan Fleischmann, Montana State | OG | 1 sack, 19 pressures allowed | Round 6-UDFA |
| Jake Pope, Illinois State | OT | 3 sacks, 13 pressures allowed | Round 6-UDFA |
| Caden Dowler, Montana State | SAF | 6 INTs, 33.7 NFL QB rating allowed | Round 7-UDFA |
| Tye Niekamp, Illinois State | LB | 155 tackles, 14.5 TFLs | Round 7-UDFA |
| Shadwell Nkuba II, Illinois State | CB | 5 INTs, 49.3 NFL QB rating allowed | Round 7-UDFA |
| Kenneth Eiden IV, Montana State | EDGE | 16 TFLs, 8.5 sacks | UDFA |
| Cam Wilson, Illinois State | CB | 16 forced incompletions, 83.3 NFL QB rating allowed | UDFA |
| Julius Davis, Montana State | RB | 1,100 rushing yards, 8 TDs | UDFA |
📊 Live Illinois State vs. Montana State odds: FCS national championship
📈 Illinois State vs. Montana State betting trends
| Illinois State | Statistic | Montana State |
|---|---|---|
| 12-4 | W-L record | 13-2 |
| 30.6 | Points per game | 38.1 |
| 25.1 | Points allowed per game | 18.0 |
| 385.2 | Yards per game | 437.1 |
| 375.8 | Yards allowed per game | 319.3 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 5-0 |
| W, 30-14 vs. Villanova | Previous result | W, 48-23 vs. Montana |
📺 How to watch Illinois State vs. Montana State: FCS national championship
- Date: Monday, Jan. 5
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: FirstBank Stadium (Nashville)
- TV: ESPN
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