How to Bet Miami vs. Indiana: 3 Betting Angles That Will Decide CFP National Championship

With Miami and Indiana set to take the field Monday with a title on the line, I'm breaking down how to bet Miami vs. Indiana with three betting angles that will decide the outcome of the 2026 CFP National Championship.

Indiana heads to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., as an 8.5-point betting favorite for Monday's 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) showdown with Miami in the final college football game of the season.

Looking to have a better understanding of how Miami and Indiana stack up? Dive into the CFP National Championship odds and storylines.

🎮 The total will shape the game script

Not sure how to bet Miami vs. Indiana? Check out the top betting markets for the 2026 CFP National Championship.

What the Over suggests

The game total is set at 47.5 at our best college football betting sites, with both of these teams deploying defenses ranked in the top 10 by SP+. However, if the Over hits, it massively favors Indiana's efforts, with the Hoosiers having a significantly more explosive offense.

Led by Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza, Indiana is No. 2 in the country in PPG (42.6) and ranked No. 2 on offense by SP+. Against ranked programs this season, the Hoosiers are putting up 40 PPG, and just dropped 56 on Oregon to hit the Over all by themselves in the CFP semifinal - IU is 9-6 betting the Over this season.

When I broke down how Indiana will win the CFP National Championship, I highlighted the need to protect Mendoza against Miami's pass rush. If the Hoosiers keep their star QB clean, they'll hang points. Parlaying the Over with the Hoosiers to cover makes plenty of sense for Indiana bettors (+264 at bet365).

What the Under suggests

Miami isn't built to win shootouts and light up top-tier defenses. The Hurricanes lean on their offensive line and defense to win games dirty, as they did against both Texas A&M and Ohio State. The Buckeyes and Aggies both have defense ranked top 15 by SP+, and the Under cashed in both those wins for Miami.

The key to Mario Cristobal's team covering, or even winning, is owning the trenches and controlling the pace of the game, which in turn favors the Under. Miami is at its best when it turns a game into a slugfest and keeps it close to allow its star pass rushers (Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor) to pin their ears back.

It's no coincidence that Miami is 9-6 betting the Under this season, and has hit it in four of its last five wins against ranked opponents. However, as I pointed out in my analysis of how Miami will win the CFP National Championship, Miami must make its tackles to keep this score low and give itself a chance.

⚖️ Margin of victory vs. close-game scenarios

New to betting and want to get in on the action for Miami vs. Indiana? Check out our CFP betting terms for beginners.

A comfortable Indiana win

When Indiana wins, it wins big ... especially against ranked opponents. Curt Cignetti has no qualms about keeping the foot on the gas, which is why the Hoosiers have been one of the most consistent teams against the spread this season. 

While Indiana is a respectable 10-5 ATS overall, they take it up a notch when playing top 25 programs. The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS against ranked teams, winning those games by an average margin of 27. IU won four of those five games by double digits.

When Indiana is in control in the second half, the Hoosiers tend to separate - that's something to consider for those betting the game live or looking at alt-spreads, too. If you believe the Hoosiers will win, then you should also believe they'll cover as an 8.5-point favorite ... or even consider taking an alt-spread at plus-money.

Miami keeping it tight

Miami is the polar opposite of Indiana when it comes to winning major matchups. Like the Hoosiers, the Hurricanes are undefeated against ranked Power Four programs this season (6-0), and they're also 6-0 ATS in those games.

But those games couldn't have played out more differently. Miami's average margin of victory in those six wins is 10.2. However, that number has been inflated by a 31-point win against Pittsburgh ... the other five wins were all by 10 or fewer points, with the average margin being 6.2 in those wins.

Of those six wins, the Hurricanes were underdogs three times and won outright. When Miami plays a close game, it wins. Cristobal has built this program to control the clock and let its offensive and defensive lines wear down opponents. If you think Miami will cover as an 8.5-point underdog, then you might want to consider betting them to win outright (+280 at bet365).

🔄 Turnovers & stolen possessions

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Low-variance game favors the favorite

Indiana is favored by 8.5 points because it has the far better offense. If the game stays relatively tame, that favors Indiana in a massive way. The Hoosiers are as efficient as they are explosive with Mendoza behind center. 

He has a 2.5% turnover-worthy play rate, an 80.2% adjusted completion rate, and has thrown just 12 interceptions the last two seasons on 738 attempts (one every 61.5 attempts). Indiana's playmakers also don't fumble the ball much, with the Hoosiers averaging 0.1 fumbles per game.

If this game lacks turnovers, Indiana is going to win, and likely by a large margin - something to again keep in mind for those betting the game live. Miami must steal possessions and create points off turnovers to win this game as an underdog.

High-variance game keeps the underdog alive

The Hurricanes turn the ball over more often than the Hoosiers (0.9 times per game), but they also force plenty of turnovers. Miami's defense averages 1.7 takeaways per game, thanks to a ball-hawking secondary that has 16 interceptions and an opportunistic defense that looks to force fumbles.

As an 8.5-point underdog, Miami must take the ball away at least twice and turn those drives into points. A pick six from Keionte Scott is what ignited Miami's win over Ohio State in the quarterfinal. The Buckeyes were driving, and next thing you know, it's a 14-point swing, with Miami getting seven instead of Ohio State.

Turnovers go hand in hand with defense and upset, so early turnovers could make the Miami ML worth backing for live bettors. For Miami to win this game, the Hurricanes have to muck it up by causing turnovers and keeping the game close so they can lean on their run game. That's the recipe for an outright win.

📊 Miami vs. Indiana odds: CFP National Championship

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