How Miami Will Win the CFP National Championship

Could The U finally be back? Mario Cristobal has avoided making that declaration thus far, but if a few players step up on Monday, this is how Miami will win the CFP National Championship and return to the top of the sport.

Miami is an 8.5-point underdog for Monday's 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) College Football Playoff National Championship from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., in the final game of the college football season.

Looking to have a better understanding of how Miami and Indiana stack up? Dive into the CFP National Championship odds and storylines.

📊 Miami vs. Indiana odds: CFP National Championship

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🌴 How Miami will win the CFP National Championship

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Be aggressive, and go to the air

Miami has to be aggressive and trust Carson Beck to be at his best on the biggest stage, because if he's not, they're going to lose anyway. Indiana has one of the best run defenses in the country, with a relentless defensive line and top-notch linebacker trio. Shannon Dawson cannot get too conservative and expect to win.

At the bare minimum, Beck needs to have the type of performance he did against Ole Miss to win. He needs to operate confidently under pressure, utilize the middle of the field, and take intermediate and deep shots. If he plays as he did against Texas A&M and Ohio State, when he threw for a combined 241 yards on just 46 attempts, Miami doesn't stand a chance. 

Miami has the speed at receiver to put pressure on Indiana. Malachi Toney is among the best freshmen we've ever seen, and has to be the X-factor, both as a vertical threat and with the ball in his hands. And the presence of Toney should help shift coverage away from Keelan Marion and CJ Daniels.

Most of all, Miami must go for it on fourth downs, especially on Indiana's side of the field. Settling for field goals against Fernando Mendoza is how you lose football games.

Don't give up second chance yards - make tackles

Indiana has the best QB in the country, who's the favorite by the 2026 NFL Draft odds to be the No. 1 pick in April. However, it's not just Mendoza that Miami's defense has to worry about on Monday. The Hoosiers are loaded with NFL-talent at the skill positions.

Obviously, having the best pass rush duo in the country (Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor) should help counter Indiana's mind-bogglingly efficient offense. But if Indiana tries to take those two out of the game by leaning even hard into RPOs, screens, and the run game, it won't matter.

While Miami's defense is ranked No. 6 by SP+, missed tackles have been a massive problem. The Hurricanes have missed 174 tackles this season, and have six starters with a 20% or higher missed tackle rate. Giving up second-chance yards will be a death knell against an Indiana team with stars like Elijah Sarratt, Omar Cooper Jr., and Roman Hemby.

The bottom line

Miami is the No. 10 seed and barley got into the CFP. The Hurricanes are more than a touchdown underdog, and taking on a team that will go down as one of the best in college football history with a win.

Cristobal can't afford to make coaching mistakes, and the team has to be at its absolute best to pull off this upset. While I don't see the Hurricanes actually winning this game, and am taking Indiana -8.5, Miami does have the blue-chip talent to take down the Hoosiers if everything goes right. 

It needs to be a near-perfect performance from the Hurricanes to win, and they need to dominate the trenches. When I broke down how Indiana will win the CFP National Championship, it was all about slowing Bain and Mesidor and not getting overwhelmed by a physical O-line.

If the Hurricanes pressure Mendoza, make tackles, stay aggressive, and dictate the game with their offensive line, an upset win in Magic City is possible. Then there will be no denying that The U is back.

Stay ahead with all of our college football picks for the national championship.