How Indiana Will Win the CFP National Championship

With Curt Cignetti patrolling the sideline, it may seem clear how Indiana will win the CFP National Championship, but Miami poses the toughest challenge for the Hoosiers yet.

Indiana is an 8.5-point betting favorite for Monday's 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) College Football Playoff National Championship from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., in the final game of the college football season.

Looking to have a better understanding of how Miami and Indiana stack up? Dive into the CFP National Championship odds and storylines.

📊 Miami vs. Indiana odds: CFP National Championship

See the latest college football odds for the national championship in real time.

🔴 How Indiana will win the CFP National Championship

Not sure how to bet Miami vs. Indiana? Check out the top betting markets for the 2026 CFP National Championship.

Protect Fernando Mendoza

How did a No. 10 seed reach the national title? By leaning on the best pass rush duo in the country to create havoc against some of the best offense in the country. Indiana must protect Mendoza against Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor to beat the Hurricanes. 

Mendoza is the best QB in the country and leads the 2026 NFL Draft odds by a large margin. He's No. 1 in QB (90.2), TD passes (41), and top 10 in both big-time throw rate (6.6%) and adjusted completion rate (80.2%). He's also throwing to one of the best wide receiver trios in the country in Elijah Sarratt, Omar Cooper Jr., and Charlie Becker.

However, none of that matters if Bain and Mesidor smother him. That duo has combined for 142 pressures and 19 sacks this season. But Indiana has the best offensive line Miami has seen this year, and if Carter Smith and Co. keep Mendoza clean, the Hurricanes won't have a shot at an upset.

Don't let Miami's OL dictate the game

Miami has made it this far because of its trench play on both sides of the ball. Mario Cristobal is one of the best offensive line developers in the nation, and the Hurricanes have bullied their way to the championship. 

Led by All-American right tackle Francis Mauigoa, Miami has rushed for 519 yards across three CFP wins while its O-line has only been credited with allowing four sacks. And while Indiana's front seven is banged up and undersized in comparison, this is still an elite defense.

The Hoosiers are ranked No. 2 on defense by SP+ and have a deep rotation of reliable defensive linemen, who thrive in a system that runs tons of D-line games. While players like Mikail Kamara, Tyrique Tucker, and Daniel Ndukwe may not tip the scales, they're relentless players who fit what coordinator Bryant Haines likes to do up front.

And the Hoosiers have one of the best linebacker trios in the country, which has helped them allow the second-fewest rushing yards per game in college football (75.0).

The bottom line

Indiana is the better and more experienced football team. Cignetti has completely reinvented this school's identity, despite having fewer blue-chip recruits than pretty much every ranked team his program has beaten over the last few weeks. 

Miami just doesn't stack up. The Hoosiers have the more trustworthy coaching staff, one of the most efficient QBs in recent college football memory, and have proven to be the most motivated team in the country.

As long as Indiana holds up on both sides of the line, they should win the national championship decisively. 

Stay ahead with all of our college football picks for the national championship.