Houston vs. Oregon State Prediction, Odds & Picks: Back Beavers as Contrarian Play
On paper this is a mismatch pitting undefeated Houston (3-0) against winless Oregon State (0-4), but my Houston vs. Oregon State prediction makes the case for the contrarian play on the underdog’s point spread.
Houston is a 13.5-point betting favorite, with kickoff from Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Ore., set for 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) as the third game of a college football Friday tripleheader.
Along with the Beavers’ point spread to continue my streak of three straight ATS cashes on Friday night games as the first of my college football picks, I have targeted a quarterback’s rushing yards total at -114 odds as part of my college football predictions for Week 5.
🏈 Houston vs. Oregon State prediction to win
College football expert odds subject to change.
- Moneyline pick: Houston (-525 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Against the spread pick: Oregon State +13.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 47.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
📝 Houston vs. Oregon State best bet
Track the latest college football scores for line movement and matchup info.
🦫 Oregon State +13.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The sheer fact that this game features a 3-0 team against an 0-4 team suggests we should be in for a “pros vs. joes” type of affair.
Most teams in the country would have lost the two games that Oregon State just lost when making trips to Texas Tech and Oregon. One positive thing that could have been said about the Beavers entering last week’s Civil War rivalry is that defense rarely put them in bad starts to possessions, as they ranked in the top 60 in averaging starting field position.
Houston is a team that thrives on turnovers. It is the only unbeaten team left in the country that has yet to turn the ball over, which is why it is one of nine teams in the country with a plus-six turnover margin or better (and one of four that have done it in three games).
Oregon State should be in for positive regression from a turnover standpoint after starting the season with a minus-four turnover margin. The Beavers committed two turnovers apiece in each of their first two home games, but also outgained those opponents (California and Fresno State) by a combined 167 total yards and had more first downs in each contest.
There is no difference in this line across the best sports betting sites for my Houston vs. Oregon State prediction. Oregon State is at +13.5 across the market, with the -110 odds suggesting a 52.38% implied probability it will cover. A $10 winning wager at those -110 odds would net $9.09 in profits.
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💰 Houston vs. Oregon State player prop pick
Our college football player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.
⬆️ Conner Weigman Over 28.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐
Just three games into the season, Houston quarterback Conner Weigman has already established a career-high for a season with 142 rushing yards.
It is clear that the Cougars' coaching staff prefers a ground-and-pound approach, as Weigman has had 24 or fewer pass attempts in every game thus far. Game script against Stephen F. Austin and Rice may have dictated a heavy running attack. However, Colorado was without four starters in the secondary two weeks ago, and the Cougars still ran 53 times compared to 24 pass attempts.
Weigman has 39-plus rushing yards in two of three games thus far. And in the one game he failed to surpass this total, he still carried 11 times for 20 yards and scored his first touchdown of the season against Rice.
Weigman has steep -180 odds (carrying a 64.29% implied probability) to cash the Under of 1.5 passing touchdowns. That provides a small glimpse into Houston’s potential game plan again this week, which is why I am backing the Over on his rushing yards as a confident three-star best Houston vs. Oregon State player prop pick.
If Weigman finishes with at least 29 rushing yards, my $10 wager would net $8.77 in profits.
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📊 Houston vs. Oregon State odds: Week 5
Houston vs. Oregon State update live in real time.
📈 Houston vs. Oregon State opening odds
- Moneyline: Houston -525 | Oregon State +390
- Spread: Houston -13 (-110) | Oregon State -13 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110)
🔍 Houston vs. Oregon State odds analysis
Houston has covered all three of its games, while Oregon State enters 0-4 against the spread. Those trends are why it is not surprising that the public got heavily involved on the road favorites when they dipped as low as -11.5, driving the number back to -13.5 across the market.
Given the initial movement towards the home ‘dogs, 13.5 is likely the ceiling for this spread, especially if we have not seen the line reach the key number of 14 yet despite 78% of the action being on Houston.
The total also features a 2/1 betting split, but has seen reverse line movement, decreasing from an opening number of 48.5 to 47 or 47.5. The weather is not impacting this movement, so it is likely stemming from respected sharp action that will keep this number at 47.5 or lower before kickoff.
🔢 Houston vs. Oregon State key stats
Season stats courtesy of Sports Reference.
| Houston (3-0) | Statistic (per game) | Oregon State (0-4) |
|---|---|---|
| 32.7 | Points | 15.8 |
| 9.7 | Points allowed | 39.0 |
| +6 | Turnover margin | -1 |
| 187.3 | Passing yards | 249.3 |
| 201.3 | Rushing yards | 70.0 |
| 120.0 | Passing yards allowed | 284.5 |
| 104.0 | Rushing yards allowed | 180.0 |
| 5.6 | Net yards per play | 4.9 |
📺 Houston vs. Oregon State game info
- When: Friday, Sept. 26
- Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Reser Stadium (Corvallis, Ore.)
- How to watch: ESPN
❓ Houston vs. Oregon State FAQs
Who is favored to win Houston vs. Oregon State?
Houston is a -550 moneyline betting favorite to beat Oregon State.
What is the spread for Houston vs. Oregon State?
Houston is a 13.5-point betting favorite across the market over Oregon State.
What is the Over/Under for Houston vs. Oregon State?
The O/U for Houston vs. Oregon State ranges between 47 and 47.5, with the Over at 47.5 juiced to -105 and the Under to -115.
What are the best bets for Houston vs. Oregon State?
My best bets for Houston vs. Oregon State back the Beavers to cover the +13.5 points as home underdogs (-110) and expects Conner Weigman to go Over his projected rushing yards total of 28.5 (-114).
When is the Houston vs. Oregon State game?
The Houston vs. Oregon State game kicks off on Friday night at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
How do college football odds work?
When betting on college football, the point spread shows how many points the favorite needs to win by in order to cash the bet. For example, a favorite of -3 must win by more than 3 points to cover the spread, while an underdog at +3 must win outright or lose by fewer than 3 points to cover the spread.
Moneyline odds represent the payout for picking the outright winner (+200 means a $100 bet wins $200, while -200 means a $200 bet wins $100). Over/Unders let you wager on whether the combined total will be higher or lower than the set number.
You can determine the payouts and implied probabilities for any wager - or convert odds to different formats - with our odds converter.
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