Heisman Trophy Odds Race: How to Bet Fernando Mendoza vs. Diego Pavia
According to oddsmakers, the 2025 Heisman Trophy odds race has narrowed to two men. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza (+160) has been the favorite for several weeks, but Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia (+170) has gained ground, making them near-identical favorites. The 2025 Heisman ceremony is scheduled for Saturday, Dec. 13, at 8 p.m. ET in New York City.
Heisman Trophy odds after Week 14
Our Heisman Trophy odds update in real time based on the latest college football odds from FanDuel.
| Player | Odds | Implied probability | Profit on a $10 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Mendoza, QB (Indiana) | +160 | 38.46% | $16.00 |
| Diego Pavia, QB (Vanderbilt) | +170 | 37.04% | $17.00 |
| Julian Sayin, QB (Ohio State) | +220 | 31.25% | $22.00 |
| Jeremiyah Love, RB (Notre Dame) | +5000 | 1.96% | $500.00 |
| Jeremiah Smith, WR (Ohio State) | +20000 | 0.50% | $2,000.00 |
| Jacob Rodriguez, LB (Texas Tech) | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500.00 |
| Gunner Stockton, QB (Georgia) | +30000 | 0.33% | $3,000.00 |
| Ty Simpson, QB (Alabama) | +30000 | 0.33% | $3,000.00 |
Heisman Trophy odds movement
Before discussing current odds, it's important to remember that Texas quarterback Arch Manning (+600) was the preseason favorite for the 2025 Heisman Trophy (via SportsOddsHistory.com) and has since fallen out of the running - his odds have been closed. Following Arch, was LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier (+850), Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (+1000), and Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik (+1100). The only member of the preseason big four still alive in the Heisman Trophy odds race is Jeremiah Smith, with odds currently at +20000 (0.50% implied win probability).
It's safe to say none of the preseason betting favorites will take home the hardware.
Betting odds for several top contenders have shifted dramatically. Mendoza saw his odds shorten significantly from +5500 to +160. Similarly, Pavia moved from a preseason long shot at +12500 to +170, and Julian Sayin's odds improved from +2000 to +300. Jeremiyah Love is the only player listed whose odds remained unchanged by season's, holding steady at +5000, though he had much shorter odds as recently as Week 10.
The late riser, and the player who has been jumping up the oddsboard has been Pavia. Entering Week 13 of the college football season, Pavia's odds to win the Heisman were at a massive +1600. In just one week, he catapulted to a near-identical favorite with his current odds at +170 after Vanderbilt beat Tennessee in the regular-season finale.
Will the late-steaming Pavia take home the hardware? I break down who I believe will win below.
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Fernando Mendoza Heisman Trophy odds (+160)
Mendoza has been the Heisman front-runner since Week 10. The odds have fluctuated from +325 in Week 10, to +225 in Week 11, to +175 in Week 12, and reached a low of -115 in Week 13. As of the start of Conference Championship week, his odds have moved back up to +160.
Mendoza has been the front-runner for many reasons. Here are a few:
- Led Indiana to a perfect 12-0 record, one of only two teams to remain undefeated
- Ranked No. 1 nationally with 32 passing touchdowns to only five interceptions
- Six rushing touchdowns on the season
- Second nationally in QB rating (183.71)
- Third nationally in QBR (88.3)
- Fifth in completion percentage (72.0)
- Led Indiana to its first Big Ten Championship Game
Mendoza has the perfect opportunity to solidify his Heisman chase when his Hoosiers take on Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship on Saturday at 8 p.m. ET.
I personally believe that if Indiana and Mendoza have a big performance in the Big Ten title game, that will lock him up as the Heisman winner. Fortunately for Ohio State fans, and for backers of the other candidates in the running for this award, I do not believe that Indiana will beat Ohio State, which leaves the door open for the quarterback from Vanderbilt.
Mendoza's best odds are +165 at BetMGM, for those who think Indiana can pull off the win as the 4-point underdog.
Diego Pavia Heisman Trophy odds (+170)
Now, let's talk about the most electrifying player in college football. Pavia has been in the spotlight for years now and has emerged as a true superstar of the college football ranks. The Vanderbilt starter single-handedly brought this program into relevancy, and the Commodores are right on the cusp of being a college football playoff team. Unfortunately, they will likely fall short of making the playoff, but it's already a win for the program just for them to be in the conversation after going 16-33 over the previous four seasons.
Pavia has stormed back into the Heisman race for several reasons:
- Tied for third nationally in yards per attempt (9.4)
- Fourth in QB rating (171.54)
- Tied for ninth in passing touchdowns (27)
- 14th in passing yards per game (266.0)
- Rushed for 826 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging 5.4 yards per carry
- Led Vanderbilt to a 45-24 win over rival Tennessee to secure its first 10-win season in program history
Pavia is going to need to pay close attention to the Big Ten Championship this weekend since his Commodores did not reach the SEC Championship and do not have a game. For Pavia to stay relevant in this Heisman race, he will need both quarterbacks (Mendoza and Sayin) to have a quiet game.
The favorite, Mendoza, needs a big performance to solidify his campaign, but the Ohio State defense will do everything in its power to prevent that. Sayin will need a massive game to get himself back in the race, which he's capable of doing. Pavia's best odds are +200 via Caesars.
Fernando Mendoza vs. Diego Pavia Heisman Trophy prediction
Now, lets look at both of the favorites and review my Heisman Trophy prediction:
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
Mendoza owns a 12-0 record and Indiana is one of only two undefeated teams; he's led Indiana to an unprecedented Big Ten Championship opportunity. Mendoza leads the FBS with 32 passing touchdowns and has added six touchdowns on the ground. That's a total of 38 touchdowns in a 12-game season.
On the surface, his numbers are probably the best and are deserving of the Heisman. However, numbers aren't everything, and Indiana has had a significantly easier path compared to Vanderbilt.
Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt
Pavia owns a 10-2 record and the first 10-win season in Vanderbilt history. He's thrown 27 passing touchdowns to go along with nine rushing touchdowns, giving him 36 total touchdowns on the season - only two short of Mendoza.
The age-old debate of which conference is better between the Big Ten and the SEC had a clear winner in 2025. The SEC was a significantly harder path, which is evident by how many AP Top 25 teams are coming out of the SEC. Vandy winning 10 games in the SEC is almost as impressive as Indiana's undefeated season.
Heisman prediction
I am backing Pavia to take home the 2025 Heisman Trophy. I do believe Ohio State will beat Indiana on Saturday, and do believe Mendoza will struggle against the nation's top defense of Ohio State. If Mendoza has a bad game and Indiana loses convincingly, I believe Pavia overtakes Mendoza as the favorite. I also do not see Sayin doing enough to crawl back into the race, and this leaves one man at the top.
That man is Pavia.
Heisman Trophy opening odds
Odds via FanDuel.
- Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU: +900
- Arch Manning, QB, Texas: +950
- Drew Allar, QB, Penn State: +1100
- Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson: +1100
- Nico Iamaleava, QB, UCLA: +1100
- Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State: +1700
- Carson Beck, QB, Miami: +1800
- Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State: +1800
- Dante Moore, QB, Oregon: +2000
- LaNorris Sellers, QB, South Carolina: +2000
- DJ Lagway, QB, Florida: +2500
- John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma: +2500
- Kevin Jennings, QB, SMU: +3000
- Austin Simmons, QB, Ole Miss: +3000
- Miller Moss, QB, Louisville: +3300
- Gunner Stockton, QB, Georgia: +3300
- Ryan Williams, WR, Alabama: +3500
- Jalon Daniels, QB, Kansas: +4000
- Marcel Reed, QB, Texas A&M: +4000
- Steve Angeli, QB, Notre Dame: +4500
- Jackson Arnold, QB, Auburn: +4500
- Thomas Castellanos, QB, Florida State: +5000
- Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State: +5000
- Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame: +5000
- Jayden Maiava, QB, USC: +5000
- Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana: +5000
- Dylan Raiola, QB, Nebraska: +5000
- Kaidon Salter, QB, Colorado: +5000
- Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama: +5000
- Avery Johnson, QB, Kansas State: +6000
- Sawyer Robertson, QB, Baylor: +6000
- Bryce Underwood, QB, Michigan: +6000
- Kyron Drones, QB, Virginia Tech: +7500
- Haynes King, QB, Georgia Tech: +7500
- Devon Dampier, QB, Utah: +8000
- Darian Mensah, QB, Duke: +8000
- Beau Pribula, QB, Missouri: +9500
- Demond Williams Jr., QB, Washington: +9500
- Mikey Keene, QB, Michigan: +10000
- Austin Mack, QB, Alabama: +10000
How Heisman Trophy voting works
The ballots go out to Heisman Trophy voters (930 voters) on Thursday, Dec. 4, with voting opening on Saturday, Dec. 6, at 5 p.m. ET. The deadline to vote is Monday, Dec. 8, at 5 p.m. ET, with the Heisman finalists being announced that day. The finalist will receive invites to the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York, which is set for Saturday, Dec. 13 at 8 p.m. ET (ABC).
Heisman Trophy odds will likely be pulled from sportsbooks in the days following the submission deadline.
Heisman Trophy betting history
| Year | Name | Preseason odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado | +3500 |
| 2023 | Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU | +1000 |
| 2022 | Caleb Williams, QB, USC | +600 |
| 2021 | Bryce Young, QB, Alabama | +800 |
| 2020 | Devonta Smith, WR, Alabama | +10000 |
| 2019 | Joe Burrow, QB, LSU | +4000 |
| 2018 | Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma | +3000 |
| 2017 | Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma | +1000 |
| 2016 | Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville | +10000 |
| 2015 | Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama | +2500 |
| 2014 | Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon | +425 |
| 2013 | Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State | +600 |
Heisman Trophy FAQs
Who are the Heisman Trophy favorites?
Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is the Heisman Trophy odds favorite. His odds (+160) imply a 38.46% probability he'll win, according to our odds calculator. Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia (+170) trails slightly.
When will the Heisman Trophy be decided?
The 2025 Heisman Trophy ceremony will be Saturday, Dec. 13, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Where will the Heisman Trophy ceremony take place?
The 2025 Heisman Trophy ceremony will take place at Lincoln Center’s Appel Room in New York City. The venue has hosted each of the last three Heisman Trophy presentations.
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